Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance

Post by dualstow » Sat Dec 26, 2015 4:34 pm

I'm looking at YTD, 10-year, and everything in between at Vanguard.
I see that over most periods, my mid-cap and small-cap index funds handily beat both my overall performance and the individual stock portfolio my father trades. Did it beat the pp over these periods? I don't know, and I've only had the pp since maybe 2010.

Doesn't matter anyway.

Still, on some days I'm just tempted to throw everything into mid-cap, contribute a few hundred $ each month, hold a small % in cash, and not look for 20 years.
New drinking game: have a drink every time someone on the radio or TV news says "data"
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Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance

Post by ochotona » Sat Dec 26, 2015 5:20 pm

You could just take your stock allocations, divvy it up four ways (small, mid, large, and non-US) and rebalance it once a year. That's pretty simple and easy and not much to worry over.
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Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance

Post by dualstow » Sat Dec 26, 2015 6:20 pm

Yep. I don't own ex-US which makes simpler still.
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Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance

Post by ochotona » Sun Dec 27, 2015 2:12 am

The leadership rotates. At some point, ex-US stocks will be the hot ones. Not for a while.
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Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance

Post by dualstow » Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:07 am

Thanks to the portfoliocharts thread I'm back on track.
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Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance

Post by ochotona » Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:26 am

Merriman Ultimate looks good
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Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance

Post by dualstow » Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:50 am

ochotona wrote: Merriman Ultimate looks good
It seems like just a few years ago, Vanguard required a lot more money in a fund for it to qualify for Admiral status. Now, it's just $10,000 for a lot of stock funds instead of, what, $50,000? That's important to me because of the better expense ratio in Admiral shares. I'd rather not slice and dice at all if I'm going to have to pay a lot more in expenses (%wise, even if that turns out to not look significant in $ amounts in the early days).

And, I wouldn't want to see my shares dip back into Investor status every time there's a big downturn.

Now, it's a lot easier to slice and dice.
Still, with all that slicing and dicing, Merriman still has a pretty nasty-looking worst drawdown, more than 1/5.
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Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance

Post by Reub » Sun Dec 27, 2015 1:10 pm

Looking at these great charts, can someone make a good case for the PP vs. The Golden Butterfly Portfolio?
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Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance

Post by fi50@fi2023 » Sun Dec 27, 2015 4:42 pm

I use Merriman ultimate for my stock allocation, although I constantly argue with my company's 401k advisor about it.
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Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance

Post by ochotona » Sun Dec 27, 2015 7:14 pm

Reub wrote: Looking at these great charts, can someone make a good case for the PP vs. The Golden Butterfly Portfolio?
The GB is a really good one, that's for sure.
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Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance

Post by Reub » Sun Dec 27, 2015 9:01 pm

I'm curious how the GB measures up to Merriman?

Also I'd be a little cautious about any stock heavy portfolio right now with the way that the market is behaving. Even these.
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Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance

Post by Dieter » Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:55 am

Reub wrote: I'm curious how the GB measures up to Merriman?

Also I'd be a little cautious about any stock heavy portfolio right now with the way that the market is behaving. Even these.
Only here is 40% stocks considered stock heavy.... :) 

As for comparison with Merriman, if want to put in all the details, can use the envy chart.... Merriman 60/40, I think. So, 50% more stock, 100% less gold than Golden butterfly 20%; has lots on Int'l.


Would love to see the TrevH version of Merriman on the charts --- instead of 8(?) slices, just four equal parts equity:
* Large Balanced
* Int'l Large Value
* Small Cap Value
* Int'l Small Cap
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