Staying the course with LTTs

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by dualstow » Wed Nov 03, 2021 8:24 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:33 pm
We've had all of our liquid assets in the PP for 18 years.
That’s a long time! Every time stocks melt up I think, this would be a great time to just diversify into the pp.
And I have never been able to do wit. Not with all my assets.
vincent_c wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 5:10 pm
No, if your default position is 4x25% then any deviation from that requires a bet.

Now if you want to argue the PP is not agnostic then we can do that.
I’ve had this whole conversation with mathjak. O0 The whole idea of the pp is that it’s not a bet, but whatever.
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by vincent_c » Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:24 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 6:21 pm
2/3s of the time equities is the lead horse ..
Okay, so 66% stocks to start with, and let's say you're 80% accurate, so we'll give it a 20% margin of error. This would mean an allocation of anywhere from 50% - 80% stocks and to be conservative we choose 50% stocks.

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 6:21 pm
I would say about 10% recession
Chance of depression 5%
This may be true but if it does happen the year you need it losses will likely hit worse than not having gained the maximum. I think investors feel losses 4x more than they do gains. But anyway, it may be prudent to give 100% margin of error here and allocate something like 20% for recession protection. A depression is just a really bad recession so I'll say the odds are fairly accurate and we can just add the 5% for a total of 25%.

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 6:21 pm
Hyper inflation about 5%
Is this your bull case for gold? I think there is also a condition where real rates are falling that is higher than this 5%, can we call that 10% again? If so, this would lead to another 25% allocation for conditions were real rates are falling.
mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 6:21 pm
About 13% rising rates and moderate inflation
I think this is an overlap for stocks doing well so I'll lump it with that.

So this would look like a 50% stock/25% LTT/25% Gold portfolio.

Maybe instead of an equal weight of stocks we can take a bit more risk and choose high growth stocks like Harry suggested. Maybe instead of the 50% it would be a good idea to have 25% in cash and 25% more concentrated exposure to high growth stocks. I think we have had some topics that have been discussing how the S&P500 is actually quite concentrated to those names so we can choose that for the 25% and leave the rest in cash. How does that look?
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by boglerdude » Thu Nov 04, 2021 12:49 am

If stocks only swing 40% and there was an ultra-long bond with 70% volatility, would you want the same $ amount in each asset
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:50 am

The biggest factor though is not how I think economic events can play out . It is how the fed wants them to play out .

Ding ding ding , the fed wants higher rates …..

Just like when the fed did everything but drop leaflets from helicopters saying don’t count on cash instruments, they are now saying don’t make big interest rate bets , we want higher rates .

That puts the odds of long term bonds doing well at very small odds in my worthless opinion .

I think long term bonds are going to be so far behind that It will take many years of interest to get back to just whole again which means back to the rate level they were the day you bought not current rates.

So yeah , fighting the fed is a bet with very low odds of playing out …especially when the fed does not want negative interest rates and rates are near bottom.

Over this year alone Tlt lost the Next 4 years in interest as of right now being down almost 8% . Gld is down about the same so they are moving together carrying a lot of weight , especially when shy is down too …..so 3 out of the 4 assets are tied heavily to rates and may be trying to fight the fed.

If that isn’t a big bet on rates I got a bridge to sell ya
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by dualstow » Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:39 am

mathjak, I noticed that in two weeks or less you’ve gone from “I’m not holding a pp at all so I don’t post anymore” to responding to each and every new thread, and on to, the pp is a risky bet in the wrong direction.

Is it time to resurrect mathjak’s daytrading thread?
Or maybe just a tongue-in-cheek ‘mathjak’s pp heresy’?
Something so that every permanent portfolio related thread doesn’t end in posts about why it’s a risky bet or just plain wrong?
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:09 am

I only respond to the posts that involve comments on the asset classes themselves whether used with the pp or not .

Or to correct what I think is just a mis belief .

If someone asks about long treasuries then I am am going to answer them . If someone claims the pp is not a bet on a particular outcome then I think that is a mis belief at this point as it sure as heck is heavily betting on the direction of rates today and is tied right in to the question about long treasury bonds
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by dockinGA » Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:29 am

dualstow wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:39 am
mathjak, I noticed that in two weeks or less you’ve gone from “I’m not holding a pp at all so I don’t post anymore” to responding to each and every new thread, and on to, the pp is a risky bet in the wrong direction.

Is it time to resurrect mathjak’s daytrading thread?
Or maybe just a tongue-in-cheek ‘mathjak’s pp heresy’?
Something so that every permanent portfolio related thread doesn’t end in posts about why it’s a risky bet or just plain wrong?
It's about time to resurrect the 'how do I block someone's comments' post from 9 months or so ago.
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:30 am

It’s easy . Just ignore my posts if facts bother you.

Exactly how i stated it last year is how this year played out.

Not that I can predict , but if you simply looked at the big picture you knew the inflation monster was popping his head up and things were not going to be good for assets sensitive to moderate inflation and rising rates and the pp certainly falls in that camp .

I am not saying to switch portfolios.. but by the same token you shouldn’t bury your head in the sand and just discount facts either …or make claims that no longer seem to apply and to claim the pp is not a bet on a particular outcome like low rates is doing just that.
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by vincent_c » Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:10 am

dockinGA wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:29 am
It's about time to resurrect the 'how do I block someone's comments' post from 9 months or so ago.
I have to admit it's difficult to ignore, but since I've been down that road and MJ never engages a proper discussion it's pointless to try to get him to understand. We should be ready to constantly rebut his arguments though for the sake of new investors who may be influenced by his posts.

The fact is that the more he is right the more he is likely to be wrong in the future, say LTT rates rise to 5% by year end, is the PP still broken then? But then MJ might say that rates are obviously high that you should jump into LTTs only to see them go to 10%.

Everything is so obvious that the bond market is completely mis-priced and so it's super easy to be a bond trader right? Everyone should do it.
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by dualstow » Thu Nov 04, 2021 11:16 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:30 am
It’s easy . Just ignore my posts if facts bother you.
yes and no.
I think you often have valuable insights and obviously a lifetime of experience.
But, Just as bogleheads limited Craig’s pp posts to a thread or two on that forum, I don’t think your pp-is-a-risky-bet posts should muddy up every thread, unless it’s in the VP or Other section.

Sure, experienced membeers can hit the ignore button, but newcomers could potentially be confused, or turned off.
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by vincent_c » Thu Nov 04, 2021 12:44 pm

Exactly, the problem isn't with MJ's analysis of what's going on in current market conditions.

It's just about what new or inexperienced members may think when reading about it. I don't believe MJ is advocating anyone actually following his advice, they are his personal rants. However, he is essentially implying that it is easy to time the market.

Perhaps it's true today, perhaps tomorrow, but there's no way to know when the market shifts and whether you are able to always predict the markets. I think smarter people have proven that to be the case.
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Nov 04, 2021 4:42 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:03 pm
I'm not willing to bet that rates will go up. I'm hoping that if they do, the other assets pick up the slack and the overall portfolio stays around the 3-5% real return range.
I didn't look into whether these are real returns in the S&P 500 column, but I think the chart shows that the PP could be fine. Ben only looks at stocks, but a quick glance shows that gold does good too (and your cash gets quickly reinvested at higher rates).

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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by vnatale » Thu Nov 04, 2021 5:39 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 11:16 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:30 am

It’s easy . Just ignore my posts if facts bother you.


yes and no.
I think you often have valuable insights and obviously a lifetime of experience.
But, Just as bogleheads limited Craig’s pp posts to a thread or two on that forum, I don’t think your pp-is-a-risky-bet posts should muddy up every thread, unless it’s in the VP or Other section.

Sure, experienced membeers can hit the ignore button, but newcomers could potentially be confused, or turned off.


As a not so long ago newcomer...I will say again that the liberal usage of acronyms with no explanations were far more confusing than reading anything that mathjak has ever written anywhere at any time.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by dockinGA » Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:01 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:30 am
It’s easy . Just ignore my posts if facts bother you.

Exactly how i stated it last year is how this year played out.

Not that I can predict , but if you simply looked at the big picture you knew the inflation monster was popping his head up and things were not going to be good for assets sensitive to moderate inflation and rising rates and the pp certainly falls in that camp .

I am not saying to switch portfolios.. but by the same token you shouldn’t bury your head in the sand and just discount facts either …or make claims that no longer seem to apply and to claim the pp is not a bet on a particular outcome like low rates is doing just that.
dockinGA wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 6:47 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:55 pm
can't even guess ..we may get a bump up in stocks if congress plays nice but that will be short lived .

being at the epee center here in nyc i can tell you things are getting worse and worse ...i think markets may only be 2/3;'s to half way to a bottom .
Just thought I would repost this one as a reminder of something that you also predicted, this time back in March 2020, literally at the absolute bottom of the market.
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by dockinGA » Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:17 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed May 12, 2021 5:04 am
I would never compare anything in Europe when it comes to rates ….the govt wants rates negative there ..

Their banking system is terrible when it comes to loaning out money to small borrowers…

Negative rates acts as a tax on bank reserves so it compels the banks to lend ..

We have no such problem here nor do we want negative bond rates.

In any case while we can never say never odds are slim Tlt won’t be a weight ……I think betting so much on Tlt is not going to pan out well …..I would sooner have a higher equity level then so much riding on rates if I have to bet on something.


Odds are on any given day Tlt is down. But worse is a years interest can be gone in one session
And another reminder of your predictions. Just so everyone's aware, on May 12 2021 30 yr rates were 2.40%, today they are 1.96%. So, if you're counting at home, we'll give you credit for predicting a rise in LTT rates leading up to the highs of earlier this year, but no credit for the March 2020 stocks prediction of a further 2/3 decline, and no credit for your prediction that rates will continue to rise after your May 2021 prediction. But hey, 1 out of 3 ain't bad.
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by dockinGA » Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:27 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:44 pm
The cape ratio is really a poor indicator of short term moves ....the reality is we have no idea what markets will do .

Wait, now I'm getting confused :-\ :-\ :-\

Judging from some of your previous comments, I could've sworn you were actually 100% convinced of what markets will do? But it appears that at this point in 2019, you stated that we have no idea what markets will do. Maybe when you said 'we' you just meant permanent portfolio devotees, and not Fidelity Insight/Growth newsletter subscribers?
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by vincent_c » Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:53 pm

vnatale wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 5:39 pm

As a not so long ago newcomer...I will say again that the liberal usage of acronyms with no explanations were far more confusing than reading anything that mathjak has ever written anywhere at any time.
It's not that kind of confusion.

The thing is that MJ presents his analysis of the current and near future economic conditions and says things to the effect of the PP being a poor investment strategy because it is very obvious that one or more components is going to be doing poorly. This is a suggestion that it is better to time the markets because even if you are correct that LTTs or gold will underperform stocks for a period of time, you need to be right twice in order to get back in when it again becomes the right time.

I don't think MJ believes that it is always going to be a bad time for LTTs but he is unlikely to be able to tell us precisely when that is going to happen. These suggestions, if followed, can be reckless for most people who come here looking for the kind of all-weather approach that the PP provides.

He also suggests things that are purely false which is that the portfolio is too skewed in its exposure to one particular type of risk. LTTs react to nominal rates and gold react to real rates. Stocks respond to growing nominal future earnings and can coincide with a period of falling or rising interest rates.

The PP gives you exposure to the only 2 types of risks that exist. Credit risk and duration risk.

The other two components are insurance so that you can capture the risk premium that you should be compensated for in bearing exposure to those risks. The 25% allocation to cash and gold make it easy to rebalance and because gold has a similar degree of volatility to stocks and bonds across various time frames it is a reasonable position to hold to reduce variance.

The general historical return of the PP is reliable enough so that it is easy to calculate whether this portfolio is suitable for you. If the PP does not provide the necessary return that an investor is looking for, they need to understand that both cash and gold are non-productive assets which lead to a long term drag on portfolio returns, this is no secret.

They can either choose to bear more risk by reducing either gold or cash exposure, this is up to them and no one ever said that the 4x25% PP is the be all and end all that all investors should choose. It is more a framework which is suitable for most people who have substantial funds and low requirements for their portfolio returns. But when they do this they increase the risk of their portfolio relative to the 4x25%.

This is a fact because you are taking on more exposure to credit and/or duration risk.

To think of it any other way is just a misunderstanding of the facts and when someone presents their views as facts when they are actually just using their best analysis which is pretty much a guess/estimate/prediction of the future then I consider that potentially damaging to other readers with unknown investment knowledge.

The fact that Vinny did not understand how the things MJ says can be so "confusing" and the fact that I have seen many people respect MJ's "advice" when it comes to things like LTTs show me that if his posts are left unchecked on this forum, it is potentially harmful to some readers and they might not even know it.
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by l82start » Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:16 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:53 pm
vnatale wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 5:39 pm

As a not so long ago newcomer...I will say again that the liberal usage of acronyms with no explanations were far more confusing than reading anything that mathjak has ever written anywhere at any time.
It's not that kind of confusion.

The thing is that MJ presents his analysis of the current and near future economic conditions and says things to the effect of the PP being a poor investment strategy because it is very obvious that one or more components is going to be doing poorly. This is a suggestion that it is better to time the markets because even if you are correct that LTTs or gold will underperform stocks for a period of time, you need to be right twice in order to get back in when it again becomes the right time.

I don't think MJ believes that it is always going to be a bad time for LTTs but he is unlikely to be able to tell us precisely when that is going to happen. These suggestions, if followed, can be reckless for most people who come here looking for the kind of all-weather approach that the PP provides.

He also suggests things that are purely false which is that the portfolio is too skewed in its exposure to one particular type of risk. LTTs react to nominal rates and gold react to real rates. Stocks respond to growing nominal future earnings and can coincide with a period of falling or rising interest rates.

The PP gives you exposure to the only 2 types of risks that exist. Credit risk and duration risk.

The other two components are insurance so that you can capture the risk premium that you should be compensated for in bearing exposure to those risks. The 25% allocation to cash and gold make it easy to rebalance and because gold has a similar degree of volatility to stocks and bonds across various time frames it is a reasonable position to hold to reduce variance.

The general historical return of the PP is reliable enough so that it is easy to calculate whether this portfolio is suitable for you. If the PP does not provide the necessary return that an investor is looking for, they need to understand that both cash and gold are non-productive assets which lead to a long term drag on portfolio returns, this is no secret.

They can either choose to bear more risk by reducing either gold or cash exposure, this is up to them and no one ever said that the 4x25% PP is the be all and end all that all investors should choose. It is more a framework which is suitable for most people who have substantial funds and low requirements for their portfolio returns. But when they do this they increase the risk of their portfolio relative to the 4x25%.

This is a fact because you are taking on more exposure to credit and/or duration risk.

To think of it any other way is just a misunderstanding of the facts and when someone presents their views as facts when they are actually just using their best analysis which is pretty much a guess/estimate/prediction of the future then I consider that potentially damaging to other readers with unknown investment knowledge.

The fact that Vinny did not understand how the things MJ says can be so "confusing" and the fact that I have seen many people respect MJ's "advice" when it comes to things like LTTs show me that if his posts are left unchecked on this forum, it is potentially harmful to some readers and they might not even know it.
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by murphy_p_t » Fri Nov 05, 2021 10:58 am

It is interesting to note that as this particular thread has gained interest, 30-year bonds are are having some strong days.
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by dockinGA » Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:21 pm

dockinGA wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:17 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Wed May 12, 2021 5:04 am
I would never compare anything in Europe when it comes to rates ….the govt wants rates negative there ..

Their banking system is terrible when it comes to loaning out money to small borrowers…

Negative rates acts as a tax on bank reserves so it compels the banks to lend ..

We have no such problem here nor do we want negative bond rates.

In any case while we can never say never odds are slim Tlt won’t be a weight ……I think betting so much on Tlt is not going to pan out well …..I would sooner have a higher equity level then so much riding on rates if I have to bet on something.


Odds are on any given day Tlt is down. But worse is a years interest can be gone in one session
And another reminder of your predictions. Just so everyone's aware, on May 12 2021 30 yr rates were 2.40%, today they are 1.96%. So, if you're counting at home, we'll give you credit for predicting a rise in LTT rates leading up to the highs of earlier this year, but no credit for the March 2020 stocks prediction of a further 2/3 decline, and no credit for your prediction that rates will continue to rise after your May 2021 prediction. But hey, 1 out of 3 ain't bad.
Mathjak, in the other thread you said you're going to reply if someone mentions you in a post. Well, I mentioned you a few weeks ago in this one, quoted you directly in fact, in a series of posts highlighting the errors of some of your past predictions. And yet you didn't reply, even though rates have only dropped further since I made this update. So it appears that you just don't reply when confronted with words from your past?
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by Kbg » Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:57 pm

Mj is our resident hand wringer…he’ll be fine, we’ll be fine. :-)
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:31 am

you want a reply ? i said last january that long term bonds and likely gold. would be a weight on the pp and kill any traction equities managed to get and that is how it played out ..both have negative returns with a few weeks left to 2021


so i am going to say the same thing again .. this inflation is not going away any time soon unless we have another shut down from the pandemic which is like rolling the dice in vegas as the odds of it so i still hold my opinion that interest rate heavy bets are a poor idea now and likely next year.

that is all that needs to be said by me … i dropped the pp last year and so far i am having a good 2021 in comparison.

lets see if i am correct and the pp has a very hard time getting traction again
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by seajay » Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:40 am

Trailing 12 months, November 2020 to October 2021, PP +7.48%, +1.2% real. MaxDD -4.33%
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:11 am

i show for the 1 year period



tlt down 3.70 with dividends , ytd down 3.32

gld down 1.57,, ytd down 6.45

shy down .47. ytd down .41

vti up 27.56 ytd 22.40


one year for pp up 5.50%

ytd 3.05%
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Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Post by Kbg » Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:00 pm

Give it time, these numbers will reverse. When the market tanks hard PP will catch up for a short period of time before getting left in the dust again...ain't nuthing surprising about the PP way underperforming in a strong bull market.
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