Help me get over my fear of LTTs

[mdwilson1991]

Hi folks,

I've been reading here a while, read Best Laid Plans, Rowland's book. I've been trying to pull the trigger and move to the PP or a variation, like GB.

I can't seem to get past my fear (perhaps irrational ) of the long term treasuries.

I know stocks can crash and stay there for ages. But somehow the fact that bond returns are inverse to interest rate movements, coupled with us being in a low rate environment really makes long bonds scary.

I don't currently hold TLT or an equivalent, and the thought of dumping 20+% into it and watching it get crushed for the rest of my life if rates move up...

I try to think of it in terms of stocks - they can move rapidly down as well, but they don't have that direct tie to the interest rate environment we are in.

Can anyone offer some words to help me calm my fears? Thanks---

Is this one of the Permanent Portfolio's "life lessons"?

The day this post was written (December 11, 2019) TLT's price was: $139.75. Today 170.44. A 21% increase in four months!

Vinny

You are absolutely right it is a lesson. No one has any idea WTF will happen. Fortunately (at the moment ) I took the plunge and bought FNBGX,which is in my view pretty equivalent to TLT, before things started to blow up.

Will that turn out to be a good idea? Who knows. Plenty of people are saying bonds are going to be crushed. Others say they will be the vehicle for flight to safety, at least until gold takes over.