I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

[pmward]

San Francisco Bay Area home prices still rising:

https://mortgage.originalandsafe.com/ev ... me-prices/

"Median sale prices in the region increased 1.5%, led by year-over-year gains in the counties of Alameda (5.1%), San Mateo (6.5%) and Santa Clara (4.8%), according to a Zillow analysis. Contra Costa County home prices grew 1.9% from the previous March."

SF houses rising. Water wet. This has been going on for decades and still has not had any real impact on inflation.

[Kriegsspiel]

San Francisco Bay Area home prices still rising:

https://mortgage.originalandsafe.com/ev ... me-prices/

"Median sale prices in the region increased 1.5%, led by year-over-year gains in the counties of Alameda (5.1%), San Mateo (6.5%) and Santa Clara (4.8%), according to a Zillow analysis. Contra Costa County home prices grew 1.9% from the previous March."

SF houses rising. Water wet. This has been going on for decades and still has not had any real impact on inflation.

Well, maybe it does if you want to live in SF

Then again, think about how much cheaper those tech companies would be to operate if they didn't concentrate themselves in such an expensive location. Maybe Stripe could charge a lower fee if they didn't locate in downtown San Francisco. Maybe Google could charge less for ads if they didn't locate in San Jose? Nothing about those places is required to run a tech company; it seems they could be much more profitable if they weren't there.

[Tortoise]

It's not just San Francisco and Silicon Valley. Someone in my family bought a house in Maryland last week. She said 32 potential buyers signed up for private showings of the house on the first weekend. Out of those, 13 of them submitted offers. This was during a lockdown.

She said the large number of showings and offers was because most of the people who live in that part of Maryland work for the government, so they're still getting paid. Real estate conditions are heavily local.

[StinkyToes]

It's not just San Francisco and Silicon Valley. Someone in my family bought a house in Maryland last week. She said 32 potential buyers signed up for private showings of the house on the first weekend. Out of those, 13 of them submitted offers. This was during a lockdown.

She said the large number of showings and offers was because most of the people who live in that part of Maryland work for the government, so they're still getting paid. Real estate conditions are heavily local.

Was it Bethesda or Chevy Chase?

[Kriegsspiel]

I, for one, think it's really cool that Maryland named a municipality after Chevy Chase.

[Tortoise]

Was it Bethesda or Chevy Chase?

Neither -- Silver Spring. But I guess they're all pretty close to each other?

I, for one, think it's really cool that Maryland named a municipality after Chevy Chase.

Naming a municipality after an asshole... interesting concept.

[Kriegsspiel]

Naming a municipality after an asshole... interesting concept.

Wasn't it named after the front hole? It wasn't called National Lambutthole, you know.

[StinkyToes]

The latest consumer price index update is out: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

What I got right:
- food at home prices jumped in April, rising 2.6% month over month.
- medical care services prices are still rising, up 0.5% month over month.
- shelter prices did not fall (flat month over month).
- energy prices plunged, as expected.
- transportation prices plunged, as expected. Who cares. Nobody is flying.
- long-term treasury prices are roughly 4-5% lower today than when I sold.

What I got wrong:
- apparel prices plunged more than I expected (down 4.7% month over month)
- the bond market yawned at the report -- apparently traders had already factored in the big increase in food prices.

All in all I'm not upset with my little attempt at market timing. I did prevent a 4-5% decline in my LTT holdings. At the same time, I do not feel I hit the bullseye and gains were probably mostly luck. Clearly, there is no panic about stagflation and/or rising food prices. Accordingly, I plan to reinstate my long LTT position within the next day or two.

[ochotona]

The latest consumer price index update is out: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

What I got right:
- food at home prices jumped in April, rising 2.6% month over month.
- medical care services prices are still rising, up 0.5% month over month.
- shelter prices did not fall (flat month over month).
- energy prices plunged, as expected.
- transportation prices plunged, as expected. Who cares. Nobody is flying.
- long-term treasury prices are roughly 4-5% lower today than when I sold.

What I got wrong:
- apparel prices plunged more than I expected (down 4.7% month over month)
- the bond market yawned at the report -- apparently traders had already factored in the big increase in food prices.

All in all I'm not upset with my little attempt at market timing. I did prevent a 4-5% decline in my LTT holdings. At the same time, I do not feel I hit the bullseye and gains were probably mostly luck. Clearly, there is no panic about stagflation and/or rising food prices. Accordingly, I plan to reinstate my long LTT position within the next day or two.

Sometimes you get lucky. But trading bonds generally is very hard

[Dieter]

Finance porn, but thought of you...

Prices are tumbling at an alarming rate

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/economy/ ... index.html

[pmward]

The latest consumer price index update is out: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

What I got right:
- food at home prices jumped in April, rising 2.6% month over month.
- medical care services prices are still rising, up 0.5% month over month.
- shelter prices did not fall (flat month over month).
- energy prices plunged, as expected.
- transportation prices plunged, as expected. Who cares. Nobody is flying.
- long-term treasury prices are roughly 4-5% lower today than when I sold.

What I got wrong:
- apparel prices plunged more than I expected (down 4.7% month over month)
- the bond market yawned at the report -- apparently traders had already factored in the big increase in food prices.

All in all I'm not upset with my little attempt at market timing. I did prevent a 4-5% decline in my LTT holdings. At the same time, I do not feel I hit the bullseye and gains were probably mostly luck. Clearly, there is no panic about stagflation and/or rising food prices. Accordingly, I plan to reinstate my long LTT position within the next day or two.

Sometimes you get lucky. But trading bonds generally is very hard

Yes. Of all the charts I analyze, bonds are by far the most difficult to get a read on.