Gary Shilling: New Recession in 2012, 30-year going to 3%, 10-year to 2%

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Storm
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Gary Shilling: New Recession in 2012, 30-year going to 3%, 10-year to 2%

Post by Storm » Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:26 am

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budget ... et=&ccode=
As for investing, Shilling has returned to an old favorite: the 30-year Treasury bond, which is currently yielding around 4.21%. "I think they're going to 3%," he said. "I think [the 10-year is] going to 2%." The 10-year Treasury note was yielding near 3% Wednesday.
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Re: Gary Shilling: New Recession in 2012, 30-year going to 3%, 10-year to 2%

Post by MediumTex » Fri Jun 24, 2011 11:14 am

Shilling is a pretty clear thinker on these things IMHO.

For someone who is trying to understand the case for deflation in a coherent and comprehensive way, Shilling is a pretty good person to listen to.

I would not, however, buy his book.  Apparently, it is filled with two things that I HATE, which are repeated self-congratulations for past market calls and repeated advertisements for his services.
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Re: Gary Shilling: New Recession in 2012, 30-year going to 3%, 10-year to 2%

Post by Storm » Fri Jun 24, 2011 11:46 am

I especially liked his analogy of the economy as a 4 cylinder engine:
The economy, he says, is like a four-cylinder engine, and a recovery usually requires all four to be firing. They are consumer spending, employment, housing and the reversal of the inventory cycle.

Shilling thinks only the last is really recovering — i.e., companies that brutally liquidated inventories during the recession have had to rebuild them through boosting production and some additional hiring as demand bounced off its lows.
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Re: Gary Shilling: New Recession in 2012, 30-year going to 3%, 10-year to 2%

Post by AdamA » Fri Jun 24, 2011 1:29 pm

MediumTex wrote: I would not, however, buy his book.  Apparently, it is filled with two things that I HATE, which are repeated self-congratulations for past market calls and repeated advertisements for his services.
I read his book, and you are exactly right.  It's also hard to understand (at least for me it was).
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Re: Gary Shilling: New Recession in 2012, 30-year going to 3%, 10-year to 2%

Post by HB Reader » Fri Jun 24, 2011 3:15 pm

Adam1226 wrote:
MediumTex wrote: I would not, however, buy his book.  Apparently, it is filled with two things that I HATE, which are repeated self-congratulations for past market calls and repeated advertisements for his services.
I read his book, and you are exactly right.  It's also hard to understand (at least for me it was).
Schilling has lead the "deflation camp" since the early 1980s.  While he has generally been "closer to right" than many others, I don't think I'd invest based on his specific calls.
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