As for investing, Shilling has returned to an old favorite: the 30-year Treasury bond, which is currently yielding around 4.21%. "I think they're going to 3%," he said. "I think [the 10-year is] going to 2%." The 10-year Treasury note was yielding near 3% Wednesday.
Gary Shilling: New Recession in 2012, 30-year going to 3%, 10-year to 2%
Moderator: Global Moderator
Gary Shilling: New Recession in 2012, 30-year going to 3%, 10-year to 2%
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budget ... et=&ccode=
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines. Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
Re: Gary Shilling: New Recession in 2012, 30-year going to 3%, 10-year to 2%
Shilling is a pretty clear thinker on these things IMHO.
For someone who is trying to understand the case for deflation in a coherent and comprehensive way, Shilling is a pretty good person to listen to.
I would not, however, buy his book. Apparently, it is filled with two things that I HATE, which are repeated self-congratulations for past market calls and repeated advertisements for his services.
For someone who is trying to understand the case for deflation in a coherent and comprehensive way, Shilling is a pretty good person to listen to.
I would not, however, buy his book. Apparently, it is filled with two things that I HATE, which are repeated self-congratulations for past market calls and repeated advertisements for his services.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: Gary Shilling: New Recession in 2012, 30-year going to 3%, 10-year to 2%
I especially liked his analogy of the economy as a 4 cylinder engine:
The economy, he says, is like a four-cylinder engine, and a recovery usually requires all four to be firing. They are consumer spending, employment, housing and the reversal of the inventory cycle.
Shilling thinks only the last is really recovering — i.e., companies that brutally liquidated inventories during the recession have had to rebuild them through boosting production and some additional hiring as demand bounced off its lows.
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines. Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
Re: Gary Shilling: New Recession in 2012, 30-year going to 3%, 10-year to 2%
I read his book, and you are exactly right. It's also hard to understand (at least for me it was).MediumTex wrote: I would not, however, buy his book. Apparently, it is filled with two things that I HATE, which are repeated self-congratulations for past market calls and repeated advertisements for his services.
"All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone."
Pascal
Pascal
Re: Gary Shilling: New Recession in 2012, 30-year going to 3%, 10-year to 2%
Schilling has lead the "deflation camp" since the early 1980s. While he has generally been "closer to right" than many others, I don't think I'd invest based on his specific calls.Adam1226 wrote:I read his book, and you are exactly right. It's also hard to understand (at least for me it was).MediumTex wrote: I would not, however, buy his book. Apparently, it is filled with two things that I HATE, which are repeated self-congratulations for past market calls and repeated advertisements for his services.