Seeking alpha looks at tlt

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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mathjak107
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Seeking alpha looks at tlt

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:50 pm

Don
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Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt

Post by Don » Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:22 pm

Add some TBT as a hedge in VP?
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Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:26 pm

These reverse funds can be very risky as a buy and hold
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Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:45 am

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Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt

Post by Kbg » Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:32 pm

Bonds are easy fellas...don't over think them.
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Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:41 pm

I’m out of TLT entirely at 160.xx
Personally feel as if I am sitting on a 3 legged stool although 1 of the legs is as thick as an OX (cash)

40/15/45 - Stocks/Bonds/Cash
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Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:50 pm

Same totally out of Tlt
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Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:47 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:41 pm
I’m out of TLT entirely at 160.xx
Personally feel as if I am sitting on a 3 legged stool although 1 of the legs is as thick as an OX (cash)

40/15/45 - Stocks/Bonds/Cash
Yikes!
Watching for the rotation back into LTT’s in the near future.
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Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt

Post by Kevin K. » Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:38 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:45 am
Yet another look at bonds today

https://betterbuyandhold.com/bond-etfs- ... ing-rates/
Resurrecting this thread (or at least trying to) because this link that you kindly shared mathjak107 caused me to explore the rest of the "Better Buy & Hold" site. I find their approach intriguing in that they're using real-time interest rate data to tweak portfolios.

This post in which they "currentize" the returns for all 16 buy-and-hold portfolios on Portfolio Charts is especially interesting:

https://betterbuyandhold.com/buy-hold-b ... trategies/

Seems like for $50 a year this could be an interesting way to split the difference between a PP or GB and a variable portfolio. Thoughts?
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Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt

Post by ochotona » Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:07 pm

Kevin K. wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:38 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:45 am
Yet another look at bonds today

https://betterbuyandhold.com/bond-etfs- ... ing-rates/
Resurrecting this thread (or at least trying to) because this link that you kindly shared mathjak107 caused me to explore the rest of the "Better Buy & Hold" site. I find their approach intriguing in that they're using real-time interest rate data to tweak portfolios.

This post in which they "currentize" the returns for all 16 buy-and-hold portfolios on Portfolio Charts is especially interesting:

https://betterbuyandhold.com/buy-hold-b ... trategies/

Seems like for $50 a year this could be an interesting way to split the difference between a PP or GB and a variable portfolio. Thoughts?

My thought is that I should monitor for a giant drawdown on the order of 19.1% for the HBPP then buy it.
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Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt

Post by jhogue » Mon Dec 21, 2020 1:27 pm

An interesting take on the future of LTTs in the Permanent Portfolio.

Given its prominent mention of portfoliocharts I hope that Tyler will respond to it.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Dec 21, 2020 4:22 pm

Missed the link. Thanks Kevin
Last edited by buddtholomew on Mon Dec 21, 2020 4:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt

Post by Kevin K. » Mon Dec 21, 2020 4:35 pm

They do take those factors into account in this post:

https://betterbuyandhold.com/bond-etfs- ... ing-rates/

Using SHY, IEF and TLT:

"Practically speaking, rates can’t fall much further from here, but for the curious: What if rates fell to zero in the coming years? How would Treasury ETFs perform in this hypothetical scenario? Pretty good in the very short-term, but terrible in the long-term.

If rates fell to zero (linearly) over the course of the next 5-years, our three ETFs would return about 2.4%, 5.9% and 16.4% per year. That’s great. But then after that no coupon, nada. And any increase in rates would be devastating for returns."

As the linked post shows, the risk if rates rise is basically without a ceiling. I think their strategy makes a lot of sense.
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