Gyroscopic Investing

Does this make now a good time to load up on one's Long-Term Treasuries as its' portion of The Permanent Portfolio?

If we are, indeed, at peak interest rates for them then presumably when they are sold and replaced they should represent healthy capital gains (along with above market interest rates along the way)?

However, if we ever reached the 22% interest rates of the 1980s then it'd be the reverse? Wish they had not been purchased now?

Vinny

Long Treasuries Top Bond Market Returns This Year

https://www.capitalspectator.com/long-t ... this-year/

Wish I had a working crystal ball

Guess I should review my asset allocation actuals at some point

But not planning in making any changes

Half the market thinks LTT's are overpriced and the other half thinks they are underpriced.

So the question is it time for a rebalance (percentage bands, calendar, or whatever else you use as a trigger)? If so, then buy. If not, then wait for the predetermined trigger in your personal investment policy statement.

joypog wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 10:09 am Half the market thinks LTT's are overpriced and the other half thinks they are underpriced.

So the question is it time for a rebalance (percentage bands, calendar, or whatever else you use as a trigger)? If so, then buy. If not, then wait for the predetermined trigger in your personal investment policy statement.

Exactly. Not to mention that short term treasuries (say, three months to one year) have gotten roughly half of the return of long bonds with WAY less risk. Drawing any conclusions from a few months of LTT data is almost worthless when one considers that one bad day can easily erase half of the gains.

Selling bonds at higher and higher rates (as demanded by new purchasers, and financed by massive printing) and allowing holders of old bonds to take a haircut. Sounds like a default to me.

YTD:
TLT -6.99%
GLD: + 4.10%
SPY: + 16.99% / VT : 11.93%

joypog wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 10:09 am Half the market thinks LTT's are overpriced and the other half thinks they are underpriced.

The only way they are overpriced is if you think the Fed won't cut rates in the next 2-5 years. Very hard to get off the low interest rate crack, its too addictive to the politicians who love increasing asset prices.

I'm going to buy 30 year bonds when I turn 65 and forget about them and resolve to be happy with the coupon for the rest of my life. No more TLT. Just the bonds.