The Bond Dream Room

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Smith1776
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Smith1776 » Sun Sep 08, 2019 3:40 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:50 am
;D smithers
Man, I'm rolling with that s%#t.

smithers.jpg
smithers.jpg (37.46 KiB) Viewed 6315 times

Everyone on the board now has permission to call me smithers.

God I love this forum.
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Ad Orientem
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:14 pm

Real US debt levels could be a shocking 2,000% of GDP

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/real-us ... gests.html
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:49 pm

I felt stupid when I sold my TLT a few days ago.
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Cortopassi
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:41 pm

Now you feel good?? ;)
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:20 pm

TLT sure has come back down to earth. These cycles are quite interesting to watch. Like it picks up speed when rolling downhill.
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Ad Orientem
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:14 pm

Volatility seems to be the new norm. To some degree I'm used to that with stocks and gold. But bonds should not be bouncing all over the place.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:47 pm

they have been making moves on par with stocks falling hundreds of points. 1.50-2% falls are a lot
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Mon Sep 16, 2019 5:05 am

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sophie
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by sophie » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:14 am

I like seeing these kinds of bumps in gold and bonds, because they tell us something very important: despite the rise of cryptocurrencies, low interest rates etc they still operate exactly as the Permanent Portfolio needs them to, during times of market stress.

Next time I check the portfolio, I'll rebalance if indicated or buy lagging assets with the new cash. With no hesitation. And I'm in no hurry!
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Fri Oct 11, 2019 2:25 pm

“These three new ETFs are designed to address the needs that our clients tell us are most important to them,” Schwab also notes. “We are pleased to offer these new low cost ETFs now, as investors are increasingly looking to bond ETFs as a potential source of diversification, liquidity and income.

The Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF SCHQ, -1.02% follows the Bloomberg Barclays US Long Treasury Index and of the three ETFs highlighted here, may be the one destined for the best near-term performance if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates once or twice before the end of this year.

“Long government funds concentrate on bonds backed by the U.S. government or by government-linked agencies,” according to Schwab. “Because these funds have durations of more than six years, they are more sensitive to interest rates, and thus riskier, than funds that have shorter durations.”
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Tyler
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Tyler » Fri Oct 11, 2019 3:07 pm

With an ER of only 0.06%, SCHQ is definitely worth a look for PP investors. That's the same as SPTL and less than half the cost of TLT.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pugchief » Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:08 pm

FNGBX (fidelity long term treasury index fund) has an expense ratio of 0.03%
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:00 am

We're now at that weird, sick place where 1-year Jumbo CDs from my local credit union have APR 2.06%, for which you'd have to go out to 20+ years on a US Treasury (sigh).

The ghost of Bernanke, I swear.
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:34 pm

A nasty day in LTTs. I'm phobic about them and days like today just confirm the sentiment.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Kbg » Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:55 am

What did you think of the almost 20% increase?
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by jhogue » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:27 am

The inversion of the Treasury yield curve disappeared today. The entire curve is now positive from the 3 month T bill to the 30 year T bond. I first noticed the present inversion between the 2 and 3 year T bill in Dec. 2018. Hard to say whether this development portends an end to lower interest rates or the likelihood of a recession.
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A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:06 pm

Kbg wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:55 am
What did you think of the almost 20% increase?
I did what any speculator would, bought TLT in June sold high near the peak. I still hate it.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Kbg » Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:52 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:06 pm
Kbg wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:55 am
What did you think of the almost 20% increase?
I did what any speculator would, bought TLT in June sold high near the peak. I still hate it.
I hereby rename thee...Bondtholomew ;D
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:33 pm

Kbg wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:52 pm
ochotona wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:06 pm
Kbg wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:55 am
What did you think of the almost 20% increase?
I did what any speculator would, bought TLT in June sold high near the peak. I still hate it.
I hereby rename thee...Bondtholomew ;D
Image
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- James Barnes. 15 years before WW I.
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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:55 pm

😂
Feels like the end of the everything rally.
In Britain they have made burglary a safe occupation. It's like OSHA for burglars.
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sophie
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by sophie » Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:00 am

jhogue wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:27 am
Hard to say whether this development portends an end to lower interest rates or the likelihood of a recession.
Well, given that the yield curve inversion so far hasn't predicted anything, I'd say you're almost right. Except substitute "impossible" for "hard".

p.s. ochotona you are hereby forevermore "bondtholomew"! Love it.
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:57 pm

sophie wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:00 am
p.s. ochotona you are hereby forevermore "bondtholomew"! Love it.
No, it's "longbondtholomew", or maybe "Longfellow Bondtholomew". I love bonds 10 years and shorter.
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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Sun Nov 10, 2019 6:48 pm

Ad Orientem is Long Bond Silver.
Feels like the end of the everything rally.
In Britain they have made burglary a safe occupation. It's like OSHA for burglars.
- Thomas Sowell on gun control
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:43 pm

BondtholeMEOW
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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:56 pm

Love the cat, btw. I have a lovely spotted tabby myself.
Feels like the end of the everything rally.
In Britain they have made burglary a safe occupation. It's like OSHA for burglars.
- Thomas Sowell on gun control
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