Unknown Unknowns

[MediumTex]

Lone Wolf's comments are what I was getting at.

History is full of irregular transitions and in retrospect it becomes obvious just how unpredictable the world really is.

If I sat you down in 1900 with a pencil and paper and asked you to tell me about the next 100 years, how many good calls do you think you would have made?

Would you have predicted the Wright Brothers and manned flight?

Would you have predicted manned landings on the Moon several decades later?

Would you have predicted two world wars (as opposed to one or three)?

Would you have predicted the largest disease-related human die off in history in the form of the Spanish Flu pandemic?

I enjoy reading H.G. Wells' writing. He made some great predictions about the future in his works.  What is noteworthy, though, is how off the mark some of Wells' predictions were.  Technological progress has not followed an uninterrupted upward path, world government has not occurred, and the flaws in collectivist political thinking have been exposed time and again.

At any point in time, countless very long term trends are in the process of beginning and ending.  Even a 500 year trend has a not insignificant chance of beginning or ending during an average investor's time horizon of 40 or 50 years.

The thing I like about the PP is that it protects one against upheavel, while also allowing one to participate fully in the prosperity that may come along during periods of stability.

[dualstow]

Interesting thread. I'm still fairly new to gold, but this discussion reminds me that I may be willing away more than I spend. It'll be nice to leave some shiny metal in the will in addition to stocks for many reasons stated above.