When gauging potential chaps demand under various SHTF scenarios, what you really need to pay attention to is the probability of sharp things from ground level up to about one meter (two meters if you include equestrian applications) either increasing or decreasing in frequency. Given that SHTF scenarios typically involve a lot of things being broken and landscaping not being as diligently maintained, I think we can assume that the demand factors for chaps would only increase in most conceivable disaster scenarios. If we assume an increase in chaps demand against a more or less static "chaps stock" across the whole economy (at least temporarily), I think it is reasonable to assume that the price of chaps would rise, possibly dramatically if the speculators came into the market.Lone Wolf wrote:I hope you're right but are we working under an unproven assumption?MediumTex wrote: Using our stockpiled VP leather chaps is always an option.
In a SHTF scenario, I am certain their value would skyrocket.
Leather chaps perform well in nuked-out desert worlds of the future.
Leather chaps perform well in that great new discotheque that just opened in midtown.
But do they hold up in a full-scale bank panic? We simply don't know. Tragically, Roosevelt's chaps confiscation programs during the Great Depression have obscured any potential data from that time period.
If we had a purely financial crisis that didn't involve any other societal breakdown or the cessation of landscape maintenance, I think the chaps play would involve more risk. The possibility of alternative technologies emerging is also something to consider, as one can easily imagine Kevlar leggings crowding the chaps market, depending upon the preferences of post-SHTF leg protection enthusiasts.
When considering whether a chaps VP is a foolish speculation, it's not any dumber than a speculative bubble in tulips. Since "mania" is already associated with the tulip bubble, I would propose that we refer to any speculative bubble in chaps as "Leg Leather Madness."