Buffett Says Avoid Long-Term Bonds

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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MediumTex
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Re: Buffett Says Avoid Long-Term Bonds

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moda0306 wrote: A few things I'd be interested to know is what Japan's unemployment rate and "quality of life" have been during this time of stock-market malaise.  Maybe we're looking at the wrong statistics.
I read an interesting story about a young man in Japan who was an engineer.  Although he was good at his job, he just couldn't seem to get on with a company in more than a temporary low-paid capacity. 

Finally, he moved to Taiwan where he found many opportunities and felt that it had allowed him to get his career back on track.

I think what we are going to see in coming years in Japan is not an influx of immigrants from other countries, but rather an exodus of young Japanese who are fed up with their stratified society that creates enormous amounts of stress but provides many fewer opportunities than it did in the past for people just starting out.  This dynamic will only aggravate Japan's underlying demographic problems.  When an economy is experiencing a structural contraction, ironically I think it is often the youngest who are hurt the most (even though in theory the young people should be valued since there are relatively fewer of them relative to other age groups) as more powerful members of society scramble to protect their pieces of the economy.  This manifests itself in the form of people not retiring when expected to, and not being promoted out of lower and mid-level positions when historically they would have been.

If you Google around you will find many stories of youth culture in Japan and how a fatalism and despair has set in in recent years as a result of young people feeling the same high expectations from their families as previous generations felt, but many fewer opportunities to fulfill those expectations.
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Re: Buffett Says Avoid Long-Term Bonds

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Interesting, MT... thanks for the input.
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Re: Buffett Says Avoid Long-Term Bonds

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moda0306 wrote:One exception I'll make is that our reaction to immigrants today could maybe be compared to the reaction to poor, uneducated Irish and Italian immigrants of years ago.
The immigration today is not comparable to the past for a variety of reasons. I'm not necessarily anti-immigrant (although I do think we should cut off all legal and illegal immigration immediately with a moratorium as we did from the 1920s-1960s for a while). But I do think we should be far more selective ala. Switzerland about granting easy citizenship and who we are letting in.

America has had several waves of immigration followed by strictly controlled flows in between. But in these earlier waves there were no massive social support welfare services in place. The last great wave of immigration in the early 1900s for instance saw almost half of all Italian immigrants return home because they couldn't hack it here. With no welfare and public assistance to fall back on they just couldn't afford to be here and left. This weeded out the people we didn't want here and ensured those that had the abilities stayed. This probably happened with other groups as well.

But today that is not the case. We have very generous welfare benefits available to everyone. So there is this huge magnet to come here and stay because chances are it's better than what you have at home. So instead of weeding out those that can't hack it, we are subsidizing them and this encourages the problem.

Finally, national unemployment is at 10-15% and wages at stagnant inflation adjusted levels for decades (or even falling?) especially in low-skilled sectors. Do we really need all these people coming in attacking that sector of the workforce?
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