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Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:49 pm
by jalanlong
This discussion brings up my recent thoughts of just going all Treasury Bills or cash. My grandfather lived a sort of Dave Ramsey existence. He never borrowed money, never had credit cards and paid cash for all of his vehicles. The amount of interest he saved over his lifetime must have been staggering. That allowed him to have a very comfortable retirement despite never making more than $60k in any given year. He never invested in "the market", only kept his money in cash and cds. Of course he never had to deal with Central Bank ZIRP either.

I sometimes wonder if I go that route and concentrate on minimizing debt and expenses if I can just put my money in a basic cash management account (currently paying 1.80%) and forget about it and never have to worry about markets again. Maybe have a few gold coins on the side. I know a lot of people here say the PP gives them peace of mind. But I still worry. What if bonds AND stocks go down? What if my ETF goes bust? What if there is a market freeze ala 9/11 and I cannot reach my money for quite a time. So many ridiculous scenarios I worry about!

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:33 pm
by dualstow
Tyler wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:06 pm
dualstow wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:35 am
Have they generally kept up? If yes, do you think they will continue to do so?
T-bills don't always outpace inflation, but for the most part they manage it quite well. And it's true in lots of different currencies. Check out the charts here: https://portfoliocharts.com/2017/05/12/ ... -investor/

That said, it's true that we're in a period when T-bills are struggling to keep up. How long that will last is anyone's guess, but my long-term bet is on T-bills continuing to act like monetary buoys that keep your purchasing power afloat.
Ah, thank you. I’ve read that entry before, but I definitely need a refresh!

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:37 pm
by dualstow
jalanlong wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:49 pm
This discussion brings up my recent thoughts of just going all Treasury Bills or cash. My grandfather lived a sort of Dave Ramsey existence. He never borrowed money, never had credit cards and paid cash for all of his vehicles. The amount of interest he saved over his lifetime must have been staggering. ...
I can understand someone shunning credit cards if they actually paid interest on them in the past. For me it’s a foreign concept. Credit cards = the bank gives me free loans, one month at a time, and gives me cash back for paying them back on time at the end of the month, interest-free.

The Savor card gives me 4% back on restaurants and tickets. That’s so high, I sometimes think I’m better off spending than saving while this deal lasts. O0

T-Bills: I’ll have to give some thought to jhogue’s advice to shorten the duration. I’ve never gone shorter than six months. Maybe the treasury money market is best, but I just abandoned that this year to get back into t-bills.

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:14 pm
by boglerdude
Savor has annual fee to overcome...by spending more.

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:19 am
by dualstow
boglerdude wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:14 pm
Savor has annual fee to overcome...by spending more.
Only for newcomers. There was no fee for early signers, and they sent us a letter saying it will stay that way.

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:58 pm
by jhogue
dualstow wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:37 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:49 pm
This discussion brings up my recent thoughts of just going all Treasury Bills or cash. My grandfather lived a sort of Dave Ramsey existence. He never borrowed money, never had credit cards and paid cash for all of his vehicles. The amount of interest he saved over his lifetime must have been staggering. ...
I can understand someone shunning credit cards if they actually paid interest on them in the past. For me it’s a foreign concept. Credit cards = the bank gives me free loans, one month at a time, and gives me cash back for paying them back on time at the end of the month, interest-free.

The Savor card gives me 4% back on restaurants and tickets. That’s so high, I sometimes think I’m better off spending than saving while this deal lasts. O0

T-Bills: I’ll have to give some thought to jhogue’s advice to shorten the duration. I’ve never gone shorter than six months. Maybe the treasury money market is best, but I just abandoned that this year to get back into t-bills.
dualstow,
Shifting to a shorter maturity in T-bills seems to be working out pretty well right now. Today, with the 1 year T-bill at 1.50%, a 6 month T-bill goes for 1.54% and a 3 month T-bill goes for 1.56%. All you have to do is buy, hold, and repeat (just be sure to check the yield curve at Fidelity before you pull the trigger.)

https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/f ... Selected=H

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:17 pm
by dualstow
Thanks! I’ve been buying 6-month bills at Vanguard.

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:29 pm
by jhogue
This morning, Bloomberg News correspondents declared that this was the "buy everything" market.

Almost, but not quite true.

Cash is the out of favor asset, thanks to years of pummeling by the Fed. It is difficult to get an inflation-adjusted positive return from anything without taking an outsized risk.

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Thu Feb 20, 2020 1:29 pm
by dualstow
jhogue wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:29 pm
This morning, Bloomberg News correspondents declared that this was the "buy everything" market.
...
In another thread, kriegs said something like "enjoy this everything bubble," which makes me want to run to cash. O0
So far, resisting, but deploying new capital has me scratching my head. Easy to just follow the asset % for someone else's portfolio, but not when I take care of my own.

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:50 am
by mathjak107
after tax returns tend to fall behind a lot more. they are just to close to falling behind without taxes so once you calculate taxes it gets worse

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:47 am
by dualstow
mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:50 am
after tax returns tend to fall behind a lot more. they are just to close to falling behind without taxes so once you calculate taxes it gets worse
You’re in a much higher tax bracket. And in another thread (which probably belongs here and not the Bond section) it was pointed out that you get a break on state taxes. viewtopic.php?f=3&t=10408&p=186101&hili ... vs#p186090

I don’t know why I don’t like TIPS but, I don’t like TIPS.

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 5:23 am
by mathjak107
the problem with tips is they are still bonds and go down when rates rise , plus one other factor .

they are linked to just a pice change index , not a personal cost of living index .all our cost of living is very very different from each other .

if tips are way off from your personal cost of living which they will be there is no slack in the income .

i rather use an income fund like fidelity strategic real return if i wanted to protect against inflation and did not want stocks or a real growth vehicle.

don't forget , the cpi only takes the temperature of the 1500 mini economies that make us up via price changes .

a personal cost of living is based on what we buy and the price change , plus how many times do we buy it x some quality factor since higher priced goods tend to see more price inflation and last longer ..

also we tend to sub way out of bounds . like i will buy sugar free pudding if my no suger added klondicks are not on sale .

millions live in rent stabilized housing with rents capped , some like my sister refinanced and her over all bills are now less then years ago , on the other hand we rent .

seniors tend to be less effected as they age because while we tend to age the go go years turn in to the slow go years whch turn in to the no go years .

so what we no longer do or buy tends to cancel out increases in what we do . then in the 80's health care ramps up .

so tracking a cpi is not a proxy for what goes on in our personal cost of living .

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 6:13 am
by dualstow
Thank you, jak. So, FSRRX - I’ll take a look. (Ooh, that’s a hefty ER).

I have a kind of t-bill addiction now, tempted to participate every time there’s an auction.
There are worse addictions. At least it’s not cocaine.

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:37 am
by mathjak107
dualstow wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 6:13 am
Thank you, jak. So, FSRRX - I’ll take a look. (Ooh, that’s a hefty ER).

I have a kind of t-bill addiction now, tempted to participate every time there’s an auction.
There are worse addictions. At least it’s not cocaine.
it has a .83 expense ratio but it is a far better choice if inflation is in the air compared to tips . i don't care about the fund expenses being less than 1% if i am being compensated for it compared to other alternatives in that class . i have fidelity total bond fund , it has a much higher expense ratio than say vanguard ... but the actively managed ftbfx beats vanguards index version over almost every time frame after expenses .

so i judge by performance vs er. there are not many inflation oriented income funds i can think of that you can compare to.

fidelity's strategic real return income fund is tips , floating rate loans , income from mortgages and then a portion has gov't securities linked to a commodity index .

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:53 am
by mathjak107
dualstow wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 6:13 am
Thank you, jak. So, FSRRX - I’ll take a look. (Ooh, that’s a hefty ER).

I have a kind of t-bill addiction now, tempted to participate every time there’s an auction.
There are worse addictions. At least it’s not cocaine.
what happens when you work for pepsi but test positive for coke ?

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:32 pm
by dualstow
O0 O0

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:56 am
by sophie
from dualstow's signature: Gold has passed 1645/oz

Thought this was worth recording permanently because...Geez. What is going on with gold? Is this maybe about the coronavirus? Then again...who knows. It's all crowdspeak.

Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2021 5:13 pm
by vnatale
dualstow wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:35 am

Recently I checked on the inflation rate for the first time in a long time: 2.3%, higher than I'd imagined. I was only paying attention to interest rates for the past few years.

I'm pretty sure MachineGhost once said something about t-bills keeping up with inflation. He may not have. Let's say one-year bills. Not TIPS, but ordinary T-Bills.

Have they generally kept up? If yes, do you think they will continue to do so?


Just reread what you wrote above and all the responses that you received.

Most of the responses seemed to indicate that they did over a period of time.

However as you can see from the below...now is definitely NOT one of those times.

I'm sure that you did not need me to tell you that. Question is for how long we will have to wait until they will again roughly equal inflation.

https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/f ... Selected=H

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https://cpiinflationcalculator.com/2021 ... ed-states/

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Re: Do T-Bills Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:36 pm
by seajay
jalanlong wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:49 pm
This discussion brings up my recent thoughts of just going all Treasury Bills or cash. My grandfather lived a sort of Dave Ramsey existence. He never borrowed money, never had credit cards and paid cash for all of his vehicles. The amount of interest he saved over his lifetime must have been staggering. That allowed him to have a very comfortable retirement despite never making more than $60k in any given year. He never invested in "the market", only kept his money in cash and cds. Of course he never had to deal with Central Bank ZIRP either.

I sometimes wonder if I go that route and concentrate on minimizing debt and expenses if I can just put my money in a basic cash management account (currently paying 1.80%) and forget about it and never have to worry about markets again. Maybe have a few gold coins on the side. I know a lot of people here say the PP gives them peace of mind. But I still worry. What if bonds AND stocks go down? What if my ETF goes bust? What if there is a market freeze ala 9/11 and I cannot reach my money for quite a time. So many ridiculous scenarios I worry about!
Reminded of the Talmud advocated thirds each in-hand, buried, commerce, which might be interpreted as T-Bills, gold, stock thirds. Physical gold in your possession/hidden, TBills are fully guaranteed no matter how much is deposited (state can always print money or increase taxes rather than being seen to default). Unlike TBills alone that can see 10+ years of negative real outcomes the trio tends to more consistently offset inflation. Good for a 2.5% SWR (PWR) and still tends to see real growth on top. For some with 'enough' that can be both good enough rewards and SWAN (sleeping well at night). Strictly the translation is buried in land, some however have interpreted the advice as being thirds land (i.e. home), stocks and gold (or treasuries). Jakob Fugger, a massively wealthy individual in the 1500's, was said to have advocated quarters of land, stocks, gold, bonds (lending) - but finding a actual reference of when/where he might have said that is illusive.