The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pp4me
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pp4me » Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:11 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:01 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:03 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:46 am
Don wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:52 am
Gold has nothing in common with bitcoin.
not likely the case ..a stumbling dollar will likely see bitcoin respond just like gold would..
Neither responded today.
no risk assets did well today .. commodities got hit too
OMFG, don't you guys have any thing better to do in life than to constantly think about the price of tea in China?

Maybe you don't do that but you give the impression that you do.

Based on your other posts you both have more than enough money to have to worry about your financial well-being.
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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:58 pm

i suggest you learn about drawing a retirement income .



it isn’t about the amount invested as much as it is how it is invested and how things go both sequence wise and return wise if the money is to last.


unless you are drawing a very low percentage which would be a very inefficient use of ones life savings then INVESTING MATTERS
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Sat Nov 27, 2021 12:32 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:44 am
dockinGA wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:35 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:38 am
i find the diversity of gold , bitcoin and a commodities etf a far better fit than 100% gold today..staying 100% gold today reminds me of those who fight the last war …..

i would think if harry could have seen in to the future the portfolio would have evolved over time.

the reality is nothing in life is permanent
People who constantly tout investing newsletters and the past success thereof also remind me of those who fight the last war......
you would be wrong as many change with the times to better bit ..there is no such thing as one type of newsletter.
I'm pretty sure the only changing with the times you've done is jumping into the PP and jumping out of the PP depending on which way you THINK the investment winds are going to blow.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 27, 2021 12:47 pm

nah i am done with the pp ….i have no reason to bet that heavy on rates
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:06 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 12:47 pm
nah i am done with the pp ….i have no reason to bet that heavy on rates
This is excellent analysis, and yet another reason why you're such a valued member of this forum.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:08 pm

no one is telling you what to do …..

if you make a comment about me i am going to reply to what you said …
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:25 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:08 pm
no one is telling you what to do …..

if you make a comment about me i am going to reply to what you said …
As noted in the thread on bond rates, you don't always reply. At least not when it comes to past predictions of yours on rates and future stock market movements.

As someone else noted previously, your opinions are antithetical to the PP investment philosophy, and yet you continue to insist on posting on a PP investing forum with your 'opinions' that you masquerade as facts, and rehash the same ole story lines time after time after time. The forum was a little slow while you were gone, but at least we didn't have to read your same crap over and over and over again. Bring some real data to the discussion that could help current/future PP investors, or just take your CNBC inspired 'opinions' elsewhere.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:50 pm

then dont read my posts …..i dont want to read your bullshit replies to me either.

go take your insults to someone else
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:01 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:50 pm
then dont read my posts …..i dont want to read your bullshit replies to me either.

go take your insults to someone else
We've been through this before. If i blocked your posts it would be impossible to follow the conversations.

From a logic standpoint, if you didn't post the crap you post every single day, then you wouldn't have any replies from me to worry about. Surely you understand.

Perhaps if I keep trolling you I'll touch a nerve like I seemingly have before and you'll go away for awhile.

EDIT: In fact, I'm editing this to add that when I pointed out on Nov 4th some of your past predictions that were woefully inaccurate, you went away for a remarkable 18 days.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:10 pm

no actually now you gave me fuel for the fire to keep replying to what i disagree with .

at the end of the day i had my call right about interest rates as both tlt and gld have lost money this year so far or did you want to gloss over that as you forget i said last january the pp was going to have a very hard time and it certainly did as gold , tlt and shy are all negative this year.

down is down
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:15 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:10 pm
no actually now you gave me fuel for the fire to keep replying to what i disagree with .

at the end of the day i had my call right about interest rates as both tlt and gld have lost money this year so far or did you want to gloss ofer that as you forget i said last january the pp was going to have a very. hard time
Looks like you edited this to remove reference to the fact that you hate losing money.
Do you own stocks? They had a terrible day yesterday, so whatcha gonna do about that? We've been through this exact same discussion before as well, and it was the discussion that led you to leave from May to October.

Your call on LTT's has been terrible since May. You may be right moving forward, who knows. But you sure seemed pretty convinced you were right on where rates were headed back in May, and you've been wrong.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:26 pm

my model is up nicely for the year even with yesterday ..and i am only 35% equities .why should i have anything to say about yesterday..
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:31 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:26 pm
my model is up nicely for the year even with yesterday ..and i am only 35% equities .why should i have anything to say about yesterday..
Need I remind you what you said literally one post ago.

I quote: "down is down"

So it doesn't matter how far you're up for the year, or how much stock you have. Down is down. And you hate to lose money, again, taking this straight from your previous posts.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:34 pm

and i am up nicely ytd ….

investment values change daily ..we spend 80% of our time between the last low and last high .

i fail to see your point …
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:38 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:34 pm
and i am up nicely ytd ….

investment values change daily ..we spend 80% of our time between the last low and last high .

i fail to see your point …
Well, I'm sorry, I can't help you then. If you can't see the point of your hypocrisy in bashing LTT's and GLD because they're down a bit for the year (again, you're fond of saying 'down is down') while the entire PP is up for the year, while at the same time saying it doesn't bother you if your stock holdings are down because your entire portfolio is up, then I can't help you. I realized a long time ago you're a loud mouthed New Yorker, and I'm sure the only people who can stand to be around you or listen to you blabber on are other loud mouthed New Yorkers.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:59 am

dockinGA,

I love MJ because he makes me question what I am doing all the time which is good.

He's had (we've had), 13 years now of relentless up in the stock market. Unprecedented I think (maybe I am wrong). I mean look at the chart.

At the same time, of course depending on your start point, gold at least, compares favorably.

The slope of that stock rise line is pretty darn steep right now. Maybe they've figured it all out and stocks will never fall again. Maybe MJ will have an average 12+% return for years and I'll only have 6%, but I know I can sleep at night (not saying he can't!) whereas in the past when I was trading and mainly 100% stocks I'd have anxiety attacks everytime there was a dip.

And... in the chart below, if anything, gold has a pretty good looking cup and handle...if you're into that sort of analysis.

Image
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:14 am

why do people here assume i am stock heavy …i am far from it …



looking at my own portfolio after the buying on the dip friday and topping off the positions in what fell

i show :

gold 5%

commodities 5% (etf dbc)

bitcoin (gbtc) 5%

equities 20% ( fidelity contra , voo , and two other mutual funds )

fidelity strategic real return 9% ( hybrid fund consisting of reits , floating rate loans , inflation proof bonds and commodities ) geared for moderate not high inflation .

very short term treasuries 23% ( shv ) if rates should fall you will get a little kicker unlike a money market which goes lower

total bond fund 7%

hyg high yield bonds 6%

cash 20% money market , if rates rise you will get a kicker unlike shv which is the opposite

i am weighted more for inflation and prosperity then recession or depression but the large short term bond position provides lots of dry powder if i am inclined to take advantage of a large drop ..
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:46 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:14 am
why do people here assume i am stock heavy …i am far from it …



looking at my own portfolio after the buying on the dip friday and topping off the positions in what fell

i show :

gold 5%

commodities 5% (etf dbc)

bitcoin (gbtc) 5%

equities 20% ( fidelity contra , voo , and two other mutual funds )

fidelity strategic real return 9% ( hybrid fund consisting of reits , floating rate loans , inflation proof bonds and commodities ) geared for moderate not high inflation .

very short term treasuries 23% ( shv ) if rates should fall you will get a little kicker unlike a money market which goes lower

total bond fund 7%

hyg high yield bonds 6%

cash 20% money market , if rates rise you will get a kicker unlike shv which is the opposite

i am weighted more for inflation and prosperity then recession or depression but the large short term bond position provides lots of dry powder if i am inclined to take advantage of a large drop ..
This is a good post.

Perhaps if more of your posts were like this we would not be under the impression that you're stock heavy. I think many here, myself included, also think that you might be an investor that changes your asset allocation much more frequently than most of the other people on this site might do.
How long have you had this particular portfolio? Also, do you have any information on what your performance has been over the last 12 months and/or YTD? Longer time periods?
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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:08 pm

I started this last January when I broke up the pp and we had the inflation spike starting .

It is basically my insight model but with an inflation hedge and I lightened up the bond side with fsrrx.

after getting stung in the pp i wanted to be as interest rate dependent free as i could without totally avoiding bonds

I will guess and say up about 12-% as a return Actually more but I have a lot of cash as we were going to buy a condo but changed our minds so if i count all the cash and very short term treasuries i guess about 12%
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pugchief » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:32 pm

@MJ
So you're 43% cash between STT and MMF?
Damn, that's a lot of cash.
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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:50 pm

yes it is ..

we were going to buy a condo in westchester and decided to put it on hold ..our renting in queens is a far better deal .

since bonds were getting hit and i didnt want to commit the condo money long term we just held on to it ..turns out cash did the best of all the bonds .. with the model doing as well as it did even with the high cash being counted i figured i will keep the powder dry..

i used some friday to add a bit
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:25 am

crazy bounce back in gbtc bitcoin , up almost 8% ,commodities up nice too .. gold is my laggard .

more and more i am liking sharing my gold budget with bitcoin and commodities…while they are all considered inflation hedges they seem to respond differently
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:06 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:08 pm
I started this last January when I broke up the pp and we had the inflation spike starting .

It is basically my insight model but with an inflation hedge and I lightened up the bond side with fsrrx.

after getting stung in the pp i wanted to be as interest rate dependent free as i could without totally avoiding bonds
My PP, after 2020, as measured in very early 2021 was up 20.07% for the year of 2020. I believe everyone had a decent year, after the earlier fright.

You are saying that you were "stung" with the PP but the PP had a great 2020 year, no?

So are you saying, given the numbers below, that you were prescient in Jan of 2021 about inflation, when it was still trending as previous and would for at least another month or two?

Image
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:57 pm

i wasn't in it all of 2020 ….

i got in around the election in nov after doing very well in my usual models and wanting to preserve those gains .

gold and tlt were in the toilet for me with big dollar losses ..not only that but the model i left for it was up nicely even more so over all it cost me a pretty penny .

the pp was down for me from nov to january , once inflation fears hit it was doing poorly in comparison…

i show the pp up ytd about 3.50% not counting today. i am up about 13% with today.

that is a few hundred thousand dollars difference for me …that is a huge difference vs if i stayed in the pp
Last edited by mathjak107 on Mon Nov 29, 2021 2:24 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 2:08 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:06 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:08 pm
I started this last January when I broke up the pp and we had the inflation spike starting .

It is basically my insight model but with an inflation hedge and I lightened up the bond side with fsrrx.

after getting stung in the pp i wanted to be as interest rate dependent free as i could without totally avoiding bonds
My PP, after 2020, as measured in very early 2021 was up 20.07% for the year of 2020. I believe everyone had a decent year, after the earlier fright.

You are saying that you were "stung" with the PP but the PP had a great 2020 year, no?

So are you saying, given the numbers below, that you were prescient in Jan of 2021 about inflation, when it was still trending as previous and would for at least another month or two?

Image
i show pp only up 16.5 in 2020 and up about 3.50% this year

tlt 18.5
gld 24.81

vti 21.03

shy 3
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