Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Dec 28, 2021 10:14 am

What I do since I use gbtc which is so volatile I want a certain amount of money in it .

So let’s say I want 200k in it …anytime it hits 210k I shuttle 10k off into my core portfolio..if it falls 10k I will add cash to buy more and get it back to 200k
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by barrett » Tue Dec 28, 2021 10:38 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Dec 28, 2021 10:14 am
What I do since I use gbtc which is so volatile I want a certain amount of money in it .

So let’s say I want 200k in it …anytime it hits 210k I shuttle 10k off into my core portfolio..if it falls 10k I will add cash to buy more and get it back to 200k
You are doing this in a tax-advantaged account, right? I mean, that's a lot of potential gains and losses to account for in a brokerage account.
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Dec 28, 2021 1:13 pm

Yes, only in my ira.

Wash sale rules would hit in a taxable account
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by ppnewbie » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:33 am

Heard an interesting research company that said Bitcoin currently acts as a risk on asset and gold is basically the gold standard of risk off assets. The entities that print the worlds currencies hold it and it has been designated a tier one asset. So for now I think the two assets are different.
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Jan 15, 2022 4:25 am

The two are different but it is to early to know how different..Bitcoin has not been through a really good recession yet nor high inflation ..

Both have really lost their safe haven status quite a lot since today investors have so many options for betting on markets tumbling
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by seajay » Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:11 am

Bitcoins being stored in a public encrypted ledger is nice/simple/low-cost for storage, however a 32 character key being the proof of ownership is a major concern from my perspective, especially as any thief doesn't need local access, can steal from a distance from anywhere in the world. Feels somewhat like leaving bearer bonds inside a combination code locker within a major railway station, don't be surprised if one day the locker is found empty (code doesn't work) or otherwise having been opened and emptied, and even though there may be some CCTV recordings of the theft that they'd been long gone on a train/plane to some far off country.
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by var » Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:38 pm

seajay wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:11 am
Bitcoins being stored in a public encrypted ledger is nice/simple/low-cost for storage, however a 32 character key being the proof of ownership is a major concern from my perspective, especially as any thief doesn't need local access, can steal from a distance from anywhere in the world. Feels somewhat like leaving bearer bonds inside a combination code locker within a major railway station, don't be surprised if one day the locker is found empty (code doesn't work) or otherwise having been opened and emptied, and even though there may be some CCTV recordings of the theft that they'd been long gone on a train/plane to some far off country.
Interesting point. However, to access the bitcoin wallet. secured with hardened private key.

https://bitcoin.org/en/secure-your-wallet#online


A private key is a number between one, and 2^256. That means a brute force attack has to search for the right number between one and 115 quattuorvigintillion. For perspective, that’s a 78-digit number that’s estimated to be greater than the total number of atoms in the universe.


This why 20% of all BTC will be lost because people lose those keys.

Once quantum computers come along. BTC algo can be hardened. BTC is under continuous development (which is true for most LEGIT CRYPTO project like ETH).
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by ppnewbie » Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:21 pm

seajay wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:11 am
Bitcoins being stored in a public encrypted ledger is nice/simple/low-cost for storage, however a 32 character key being the proof of ownership is a major concern from my perspective, especially as any thief doesn't need local access, can steal from a distance from anywhere in the world. Feels somewhat like leaving bearer bonds inside a combination code locker within a major railway station, don't be surprised if one day the locker is found empty (code doesn't work) or otherwise having been opened and emptied, and even though there may be some CCTV recordings of the theft that they'd been long gone on a train/plane to some far off country.
Interesting perspective. I talked to someone for El Salvador today (where Bitcoin has just become legal tender) and they said people are getting hacked and losing their Bitcoin. I did get a chance to dig into details but getting hacked could become a serious problem if more of the general population (very non technical) starts using or holding it.
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by seajay » Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:20 am

The blockchain records everything, for all time. Nodes provide duplicate copies of that ledger to verify consistency, discrepancies flag up warnings but where the most common/numerously consistent copies are considered as the valid copy. Make a copy of today's ledger and in 10, whatever years time decrypting that might be trivial relative to the security/encryption methods being applied at the time. Difficult to read/hack today, trivial tomorrow. Yes that only provides a historic look into the ledger but that might provide the basis to more easily track/hack individuals at that present time.

There are tricks that can be employed to flip miners out (switch their processing power over to other likely more profitable alternatives at the time). As fewer coins are mined by fewer miners, individual miners with larger processing power will predominate. Once down to relatively few if one can flip other miners out then their copies of the ledger will be deemed to be the valid copies. Present attack vectors along those lines indicate that just 15% of the total available resources (computing power) is required to gain control over the ledger and I suspect with some yet unknown clever tricks that might drop to perhaps 5% or lower levels. If implemented in a appropriate manner then the hacking of the entire ledger might be initially discrete/persistent, accepted and added to for a period of time before a sudden explosive 'trojan' hits and sees vast/large amounts of 'money' having been lost.

Security has to be 100% right, 100% of the time. Hacking involves just a single weak point for a brief amount of time. Given that nothing is consistently perfect sooner or later with enough effort and financial incentive one way or another hacks can and will occur.
Last edited by seajay on Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by seajay » Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:35 am

var wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:38 pm
seajay wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:11 am
Bitcoins being stored in a public encrypted ledger is nice/simple/low-cost for storage, however a 32 character key being the proof of ownership is a major concern from my perspective, especially as any thief doesn't need local access, can steal from a distance from anywhere in the world. Feels somewhat like leaving bearer bonds inside a combination code locker within a major railway station, don't be surprised if one day the locker is found empty (code doesn't work) or otherwise having been opened and emptied, and even though there may be some CCTV recordings of the theft that they'd been long gone on a train/plane to some far off country.
Interesting point. However, to access the bitcoin wallet. secured with hardened private key.

https://bitcoin.org/en/secure-your-wallet#online


A private key is a number between one, and 2^256. That means a brute force attack has to search for the right number between one and 115 quattuorvigintillion. For perspective, that’s a 78-digit number that’s estimated to be greater than the total number of atoms in the universe.


This why 20% of all BTC will be lost because people lose those keys.

Once quantum computers come along. BTC algo can be hardened. BTC is under continuous development (which is true for most LEGIT CRYPTO project like ETH).
Yes I used "32 character" in the context of 1 character = 1 byte, 8 bits, and 32 x 8 = 256 bits (2^256).

You can't retrospectively harden a old copy of the ledger (blockchain) that at the time was using older security algorithms/methods that most likely would have subsequently become trivial to de-crypt/hack. Even being able to read 10 year old de-crypted copies of all transactions/bitcoins up to that date might be revealing and likely would even facilitate attacking/hacking the 'present day' ledger much more easily.

Imagine a encrypted copy of all banking transactions made in DOS (pre Windows) days using 8 bit security methods. Being able to openly read/analyze such data could lead to revealing transactions/activity patterns/flows that still continued to the present day. Revealing enough to enable thefts to made ... from a distance (from anywhere in the world). Or be used by government agents to track/prosecute past "illicit activities" (tax evasion/whatever).
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by seajay » Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:43 am

ppnewbie wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:21 pm
Interesting perspective. I talked to someone for El Salvador today (where Bitcoin has just become legal tender) and they said people are getting hacked and losing their Bitcoin. I did get a chance to dig into details but getting hacked could become a serious problem if more of the general population (very non technical) starts using or holding it.
If a private key isn't created/stored on a isolated (non internet connected) clean and verified as clean system that's locked away in a vault - then it isn't secure. The vast majority of non tech can't be bothered with all of that and as such some will be hacked and lose their Bitcoin. If a broad/deep enough attack occurs such that many lose their bitcoin at/around the same time then total faith will have been lost, along with Bitcoin $$$ value (relegated to being considered worthless).
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:56 pm

seajay wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:43 am
ppnewbie wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:21 pm
Interesting perspective. I talked to someone for El Salvador today (where Bitcoin has just become legal tender) and they said people are getting hacked and losing their Bitcoin. I did get a chance to dig into details but getting hacked could become a serious problem if more of the general population (very non technical) starts using or holding it.
If a private key isn't created/stored on a isolated (non internet connected) clean and verified as clean system that's locked away in a vault - then it isn't secure. The vast majority of non tech can't be bothered with all of that and as such some will be hacked and lose their Bitcoin. If a broad/deep enough attack occurs such that many lose their bitcoin at/around the same time then total faith will have been lost, along with Bitcoin $$$ value (relegated to being considered worthless).
In other words, success could and probably will kill Bitcoin, one way or another.

For me it comes down to the everything bubble. When people are paying millions for NFT's of Crypto Punk sketches, come on! Bitcoin is a big part of the everything bubble, IMO.
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:57 pm

By the way I lost all my bitcoin in a virtual boating accident.
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by seajay » Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:37 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:57 pm
By the way I lost all my bitcoin in a virtual boating accident.
But imagine in 10 years time when a copy of the present encrypted public blockchain (ledger) is easily viewed by the technology available at that time and the FBI come calling on seeing that your historic claim of loss was in fact a lie. Or that you hadn't declared and payed the correct taxes. Along with seizure/inspection of your hardware revealing all other activities since, and all of your assets/wealth being seized on the basis of being proceeds from illicit activities.
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by bitcoininthevp » Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:39 am

seajay wrote:
Sat Dec 25, 2021 1:08 pm
Indications are that rather than having to have 51% of the total mining computational power that 15% or lower levels might suffice, and with that reducing over time. Well within state sponsored attack potential or to some botnets.
Are you saying a 51% attack can happen with 15%? And / or some crippling attack on the network can happen with 15% of the hashrate? More details please.
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by bitcoininthevp » Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:49 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Dec 28, 2021 1:13 pm
Yes, only in my ira.

Wash sale rules would hit in a taxable account
As far as I know there is no wash trading rules for crypto
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by bitcoininthevp » Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:49 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 4:25 am
The two are different but it is to early to know how different..Bitcoin has not been through a really good recession yet nor high inflation ..

Both have really lost their safe haven status quite a lot since today investors have so many options for betting on markets tumbling
If dollar rallies and there are a lack of dollars in the system bitcoin would be crushed in my opinion. Likely what is happening now.
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by bitcoininthevp » Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:51 am

seajay wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:20 am
The blockchain records everything, for all time. Nodes provide duplicate copies of that ledger to verify consistency, discrepancies flag up warnings but where the most common/numerously consistent copies are considered as the valid copy. Make a copy of today's ledger and in 10, whatever years time decrypting that might be trivial relative to the security/encryption methods being applied at the time. Difficult to read/hack today, trivial tomorrow. Yes that only provides a historic look into the ledger but that might provide the basis to more easily track/hack individuals at that present time.

There are tricks that can be employed to flip miners out (switch their processing power over to other likely more profitable alternatives at the time). As fewer coins are mined by fewer miners, individual miners with larger processing power will predominate. Once down to relatively few if one can flip other miners out then their copies of the ledger will be deemed to be the valid copies. Present attack vectors along those lines indicate that just 15% of the total available resources (computing power) is required to gain control over the ledger and I suspect with some yet unknown clever tricks that might drop to perhaps 5% or lower levels. If implemented in a appropriate manner then the hacking of the entire ledger might be initially discrete/persistent, accepted and added to for a period of time before a sudden explosive 'trojan' hits and sees vast/large amounts of 'money' having been lost.

Security has to be 100% right, 100% of the time. Hacking involves just a single weak point for a brief amount of time. Given that nothing is consistently perfect sooner or later with enough effort and financial incentive one way or another hacks can and will occur.
Miners can attack the network by mining empty blocks, but they cannot "steal" bitcoins.
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by seajay » Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:55 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:39 am
seajay wrote:
Sat Dec 25, 2021 1:08 pm
Indications are that rather than having to have 51% of the total mining computational power that 15% or lower levels might suffice, and with that reducing over time. Well within state sponsored attack potential or to some botnets.
Are you saying a 51% attack can happen with 15%? And / or some crippling attack on the network can happen with 15% of the hashrate? More details please.
I'll just say yes and also ... viewtopic.php?p=236090#p236090 (PP gold forum section is not the place for Btc Ads).
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by bitcoininthevp » Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:39 am

seajay wrote:
Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:55 pm
I'll just say yes and also ... viewtopic.php?p=236090#p236090 (PP gold forum section is not the place for Btc Ads).
Ill await facts to back your statements.

Otherwise it appears you are spewing misinformation again.
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by bitcoininthevp » Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:47 am

seajay wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:35 am
You can't retrospectively harden a old copy of the ledger (blockchain) that at the time was using older security algorithms/methods that most likely would have subsequently become trivial to de-crypt/hack.
Wrong. Bitcoin protocol could disallow traditional spending of coins and require zero knowledge proofs or other techniques for spending, getting around quantum concerns.
seajay wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:35 am
Even being able to read 10 year old de-crypted copies of all transactions/bitcoins up to that date might be revealing and likely would even facilitate attacking/hacking the 'present day' ledger much more easily.
Wrong. Bitcoin doesn’t even encrypt anything.
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by bitcoininthevp » Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:50 am

seajay wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:43 am
If a private key isn't created/stored on a isolated (non internet connected) clean and verified as clean system that's locked away in a vault - then it isn't secure.
Wrong. Multisig allows less securing of keys, even on mobile devices/Internet computers, while securing the bitcoins in an address.

Additionally, key splitting techniques like shamir's secret sharing or the like can be used.
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by seajay » Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:45 am

Good grief. (Shouldn't feed trolls). This is not the place for your misinformation/spam. Better would be the VP section, better still - in another forum.

IBM is confident that it can exponentially increase the qubit number in the next few years, and could see a processor with billions of qubits within 5 years. And IBM is starting to trail behind in that race. Enough to crack the SHA-256 algorithm that Btc uses. That's to fully crack. Partial cracks are possible given that transaction announcement key associations have finite but variable time windows when that key is vulnerable and in some cases that extends out to a full day rather than the more usual 10 minutes to one hour.
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by bitcoininthevp » Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:09 am

seajay wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:45 am
Good grief. (Shouldn't feed trolls). This is not the place for your misinformation/spam. Better would be the VP section, better still - in another forum.

IBM is confident that it can exponentially increase the qubit number in the next few years, and could see a processor with billions of qubits within 5 years. And IBM is starting to trail behind in that race. Enough to crack the SHA-256 algorithm that Btc uses. That's to fully crack. Partial cracks are possible given that transaction announcement key associations have finite but variable time windows when that key is vulnerable and in some cases that extends out to a full day rather than the more usual 10 minutes to one hour.
Im addressing the points that you bring up, that isn't trolling. (bloviating about topics which you are unfamiliar with in an arrogant way seems more like trolling to me?)

I notice you are not responding to any of the "securing of keys/addresses" points I made and are pivoting to quantum, a different concern, which I will also address. Quantum will need to be addressed at some point in bitcoin, that is true. I have mentioned in another thread one example of how it could be addressed (requiring something like a zero knowledge proof of a private key in order to spend).
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Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Post by Kevin K. » Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:23 am

If we can't ban discussion of crypto on these forums we can at least not let the discussion be dominated by proselytizers for it.

Two good recent items. One is this thread on the environmental costs:

https://twitter.com/smdiehl/status/1350869944888664064

The other one, shared with me by Cullen Roche, the author of the article I started with this thread with, is a long but truly excellent YouTube video discussion NFTs and Crypto in detail. Caveat emptor.

https://youtu.be/YQ_xWvX1n9g
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