The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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seajay
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by seajay » Thu Nov 10, 2022 12:08 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:02 pm
Kbg wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 1:46 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:06 am
Wow, when did gold creep up into the 1700s
On the downside...bonds, stocks and gold are all moving in lock step. As of late we are getting zilch diversification.

Had to bring in some shade on the little ray of light I introduced. :-)
O0 Yeah, over the past 12 years that I’ve been paying attention it is too often the case, it seems. Lockstep.
The correlation of stocks and gold is volatile. Ongoing alignment/positive correlations after a financial crisis, Covid, energy prices (Ukraine war) would seem to have investors splitting exposure between both - positive correlation. At a later date the positive correlation will flip to being negative, maybe dumping dollars/stocks to buy gold, or dumping gold to buy stocks. The markets just saying its current outlook is that either to be as likely a occurrence as the other.

Flight to safety (US$ - and buying US stocks with those $$$'s) has seen a strong/rising $/stocks. With less fear a out-flight from US$/stocks into 'better value' elsewhere could see gold priced in $ doing well.
Image
But equally US$ and US stocks could continue to do OK.
Best stick with 50/50 stock/gold

Bond interest rates could continue on up, or decline.
Best stick with 50/50 short dated and long dated.

Either way, being half right/half wrong is better than being fully-wrong.

More usually the market decides on directions relatively quickly (months) - such that the counter-balancing tends to be activated sooner rather than later. More recently however the uncertainties have been more persistent (years) during which times you can see the likes of stocks and gold moving up or down in lockstep.
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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 10, 2022 3:42 pm

Yes and no .

Gold is tied strongly to the dollar ..rising rates is strengthening the dollar …

It would have to have inflation weaken the dollar before gold is tied to inflation .

Other countries where inflation has weakened their currency are seeing nice gold returns .

India for example has gold up 68% since 2020
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Hal » Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:10 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 3:42 pm

Other countries where inflation has weakened their currency are seeing nice gold returns .
Gold has done well versus the "Pacific Peso" :D
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Dec 02, 2022 7:08 am

Yesterday was interesting.
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
Iran's looking bright lately. Especially at night
Gold pulls back to 1900
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Smith1776
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:52 am

I'll be making a fairly large purchase of physical gold soon.

I always think to myself, "how the heck am I going to store all this gold?" Then I get to the bullion store and I realize that 10 grand worth of gold can easily fit in the palm of one's hand. ::)
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Dec 09, 2022 11:26 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:52 am
I'll be making a fairly large purchase of physical gold soon.

I always think to myself, "how the heck am I going to store all this gold?" Then I get to the bullion store and I realize that 10 grand worth of gold can easily fit in the palm of one's hand. ::)
So you’re going to chop off someone’s hand and store it there. Yup, I follow!
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
Iran's looking bright lately. Especially at night
Gold pulls back to 1900
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vnatale
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Fri Dec 09, 2022 11:47 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Dec 09, 2022 11:26 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:52 am

I'll be making a fairly large purchase of physical gold soon.

I always think to myself, "how the heck am I going to store all this gold?" Then I get to the bullion store and I realize that 10 grand worth of gold can easily fit in the palm of one's hand. ::)


So you’re going to chop off someone’s hand and store it there. Yup, I follow!


Official "Dualstow" humor!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Dec 14, 2022 1:58 am

Pretty intense gold discussion going on at the Knuckleheads forum.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... ead#unread

That NiceUnparticularMan dude is the perfect example of what's known as the gish gallop.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:18 am

Some familiar names there!
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
Iran's looking bright lately. Especially at night
Gold pulls back to 1900
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:04 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:18 am

Some familiar names there!


When I looked at the first page ... I was going to ask "what familiar names?".

But then I looked at the last page and first I saw seajay and then ...... technovelist!

I see that he had been dormant there since July .... until this topic and another topic recently brought him back to being fairly active.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:11 pm

People on this forum sometimes complain about the quality of discussion, but I still think we're miles ahead of the Knuckleheads forum.

Logic, economic history, and reasonable discourse don't count for anything over there.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:17 pm

Does anyone else go with 1 ounce gold maple leafs as their physical bullion of choice? ^-^


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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Vil » Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:25 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:17 pm
Does anyone else go with 1 ounce gold maple leafs as their physical bullion of choice? ^-^

gold.jpg
Have only 4 of those. Try to keep myself well diversified in the types of coins I buy... might be just one of the many non-sense things I follow, who knows... Oddly enough, I still do not own Krugers, so they are in my next shopping list.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:36 pm

I think that the only ones I own are the American version.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:56 pm

I have 3 fewer than Vil does. One beautiful maple.
Everything but a few coins are 1oz. Glad to see you graduated from fractional, Smith.
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
Iran's looking bright lately. Especially at night
Gold pulls back to 1900
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by welderwannabe » Thu Dec 15, 2022 6:45 pm

I don't have any maple leafs, but they will be the next coin I buy. Eagles premium is just to crazy right now.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Dec 15, 2022 7:12 pm

The thing I really like about the Maple Leafs is that apparently they are quite difficult to counterfeit convincingly. There's a specific technology that the Canadian Mint calls "Bullion DNA" that includes some security features.

The thing I don't like about them is that unlike Gold Eagles they are actually pure 24K gold. They are quite easily damaged if handled carelessly. Can't have it all I guess.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Dec 15, 2022 7:17 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:56 pm
Glad to see you graduated from fractional, Smith.
Indeed! Better spreads for sure.

I was thinking though: it's actually possible to buy maplegrams in 25 piece sheets like this one.

Image

When bought as a pack the spreads are much smaller than the individual ones. And if they're ever needed for true barter you can break them off. Best of both worlds?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Mark Leavy » Thu Dec 15, 2022 7:30 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Dec 15, 2022 7:17 pm
I was thinking though: it's actually possible to buy maplegrams in 25 piece sheets like this one.

When bought as a pack the spreads are much smaller than the individual ones. And if they're ever needed for true barter you can break them off. Best of both worlds?
Those are tempting. Do you have a link? If the spread isn't obscene, I wouldn't mind throwing a few of those into my pack.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:58 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Dec 15, 2022 7:12 pm

The thing I really like about the Maple Leafs is that apparently they are quite difficult to counterfeit convincingly. There's a specific technology that the Canadian Mint calls "Bullion DNA" that includes some security features.

The thing I don't like about them is that unlike Gold Eagles they are actually pure 24K gold. They are quite easily damaged if handled carelessly. Can't have it all I guess.


My immediate reaction when I looked at the picture of it in your hand was .... couldn't tiny, tiny, tiny pieces of gold fleck off in your hand?
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Xan » Thu Dec 15, 2022 10:28 pm

vnatale wrote:
Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:58 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Dec 15, 2022 7:12 pm
The thing I really like about the Maple Leafs is that apparently they are quite difficult to counterfeit convincingly. There's a specific technology that the Canadian Mint calls "Bullion DNA" that includes some security features.

The thing I don't like about them is that unlike Gold Eagles they are actually pure 24K gold. They are quite easily damaged if handled carelessly. Can't have it all I guess.
My immediate reaction when I looked at the picture of it in your hand was .... couldn't tiny, tiny, tiny pieces of gold fleck off in your hand?
Gold is malleable but I don't think it's brittle.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:47 pm

Mark Leavy wrote:
Thu Dec 15, 2022 7:30 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Dec 15, 2022 7:17 pm
I was thinking though: it's actually possible to buy maplegrams in 25 piece sheets like this one.

When bought as a pack the spreads are much smaller than the individual ones. And if they're ever needed for true barter you can break them off. Best of both worlds?
Those are tempting. Do you have a link? If the spread isn't obscene, I wouldn't mind throwing a few of those into my pack.
I'm not familiar with what the market for these is like down in the states, but here's the rate from a reputable seller I've used up in Canada.

https://www.vbce.ca/gold-silver/24-cana ... pre-orders
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Mark Leavy » Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:25 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:47 pm
I'm not familiar with what the market for these is like down in the states, but here's the rate from a reputable seller I've used up in Canada.

https://www.vbce.ca/gold-silver/24-cana ... pre-orders
Thanks Smithers. I like that they publish both a buy and a sell price. Looks like about 10% spread. Not too bad for a bunch of fractional coins. Seems fair.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Vil » Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:30 am

Here they sell them in transparent hard plastic covers. All the coins I've seen do not look like they were ever taken out from those shells. Personally, I havent touch directly any of my coins. Have heard from my seller that if there are any signs of finger touches, scratches etc. that would immediately decrease their price (and that makes sense, no?)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:58 am

Vil wrote:
Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:30 am

Here they sell them in transparent hard plastic covers. All the coins I've seen do not look like they were ever taken out from those shells. Personally, I havent touch directly any of my coins. Have heard from my seller that if there are any signs of finger touches, scratches etc. that would immediately decrease their price (and that makes sense, no?)


Thanks.

I bought the few I own in 1995 and they have never come out of the packaging that is similar to what you describe above.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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