COVID-19 and Safe Deposit Boxes

[Ad Orientem]

I am going to the bank tomorrow and pulling at least some of my PMs out of my SDBs. I'm not saying that COVID-19 is the SHTF scenario some of us have talked about in hypothetical terms over the years. But there is at least a remote chance that it could become something fairly serious. In a worst case scenario banks may be closed for an unknown period of time. As many here will know I am not a fan of home storage of PMs but SDBs are only safe if you can get to them. When storm clouds start gathering it is best to err on the side of caution.

[Libertarian666]

I am going to the bank tomorrow and pulling at least some of my PMs out of my SDBs. I'm not saying that COVID-19 is the SHTF scenario some of us have talked about in hypothetical terms over the years. But there is at least a remote chance that it could become something fairly serious. In a worst case scenario banks may be closed for an unknown period of time. As many here will know I am not a fan of home storage of PMs but SDBs are only safe if you can get to them. When storm clouds start gathering it is best to err on the side of caution.

Agreed on erring on the side of caution.

[Ad Orientem]

I am going to the bank tomorrow and pulling at least some of my PMs out of my SDBs. I'm not saying that COVID-19 is the SHTF scenario some of us have talked about in hypothetical terms over the years. But there is at least a remote chance that it could become something fairly serious. In a worst case scenario banks may be closed for an unknown period of time. As many here will know I am not a fan of home storage of PMs but SDBs are only safe if you can get to them. When storm clouds start gathering it is best to err on the side of caution.

Agreed on erring on the side of caution.

I'm also planning on stockpiling enough non-perishable foods, TP and other essentials to get us through a few weeks in case it becomes impossible or ill advised to leave the house for a period of time. I'm hoping we will all laugh at these precautions in the future much the way my parents laughed at all the people digging holes in the back yard during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

[vnatale]

I am going to the bank tomorrow and pulling at least some of my PMs out of my SDBs. I'm not saying that COVID-19 is the SHTF scenario some of us have talked about in hypothetical terms over the years. But there is at least a remote chance that it could become something fairly serious. In a worst case scenario banks may be closed for an unknown period of time. As many here will know I am not a fan of home storage of PMs but SDBs are only safe if you can get to them. When storm clouds start gathering it is best to err on the side of caution.

Agreed on erring on the side of caution.

I'm also planning on stockpiling enough non-perishable foods, TP and other essentials to get us through a few weeks in case it becomes impossible or ill advised to leave the house for a period of time. I'm hoping we will all laugh at these precautions in the future much the way my parents laughed at all the people digging holes in the back yard during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Do you live in a city? I live in a rural area and it's not really been a topic of conversation here or seen expressed concern. In any event, I'm always a big-time bulk buyer so I have tons of food in my basement.

Vinny

[dualstow]

Including cat food, I hope.

[vnatale]

Including cat food, I hope.

I buy 100 - 150 cans at a time. These three young ones can oftentimes go through six cans a day. I oftentimes ask the cashiers if I set the record for the most cans of cat food that they've ever had to check out. I also have many jars of dry cat food that I've had after I read you should not feed cats dry food. Finally, have two bags of super expensive prescription dental food for them.

But back to the original.

Just finished reading my daily newspaper and not a word about it in any article. Yours?

Vinny

[dualstow]

Not a word about “it” — Covid-19? That’s the coronavirus.
About safe deposit boxes? I don’t know why there would be.
(Our cat eats both wet and dry food, vet recommended).

[Kriegsspiel]

I just started a Costco membership this year, which obviously is a great facilitator for storing a lot of supplies. My main push to get it was the super sale they had on ON protein powder, so I got about a years supply of that. Since then I've been stockpiling a years worth of other non-perishables.

Outside of the coronavirus, it's better to not have to think about buying toothpaste with any regularity.

[dualstow]

Yeah, I’m leaving my coins at the bank for the most part, but my wife was asking me this morning if we should stock up on food.I used to own some of those Mountain House emergency meals. Finally ate the last ones before that ten-year expiration date.

I seem to remember that years ago Craigr said something about preparing water every night just in case of emergency. Nothing looming at the time.

[Kriegsspiel]

“Prepackaged military rations are for pussies. I make my own”
- Granola Shotgun

[dualstow]

“Prepackaged military rations are for pussies. I make my own”
- Granola Shotgun

I remember that post. I think PointedStick linked to it.
Never really understood his use of “pussies.” Like, you have to be brave to cook & put food in jars?

[Libertarian666]

I am going to the bank tomorrow and pulling at least some of my PMs out of my SDBs. I'm not saying that COVID-19 is the SHTF scenario some of us have talked about in hypothetical terms over the years. But there is at least a remote chance that it could become something fairly serious. In a worst case scenario banks may be closed for an unknown period of time. As many here will know I am not a fan of home storage of PMs but SDBs are only safe if you can get to them. When storm clouds start gathering it is best to err on the side of caution.

Agreed on erring on the side of caution.

I'm also planning on stockpiling enough non-perishable foods, TP and other essentials to get us through a few weeks in case it becomes impossible or ill advised to leave the house for a period of time. I'm hoping we will all laugh at these precautions in the future much the way my parents laughed at all the people digging holes in the back yard during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

I'm used to being laughed at for being prepared, since the reason we moved to the country was due to concerns about Y2K.

Most of our preps are still usable because they weren't perishable in the first place, but we're filling in a few gaps.

[vnatale]

Not a word about “it” — Covid-19? That’s the coronavirus.
About safe deposit boxes? I don’t know why there would be.
(Our cat eats both wet and dry food, vet recommended).

The coronavirus.

I read an extensive cat food recommendation by a highly knowledgeable vet. She pointed out that cats have low thirst drives and that, therefore, wet food is best for them. Feeding them dry food just promotes the possibilities of that dreaded kidney disease. I had to watch three of my most beloved cats suffer with that at the ends of their lives.

Vinny

[vnatale]

I just started a Costco membership this year, which obviously is a great facilitator for storing a lot of supplies. My main push to get it was the super sale they had on ON protein powder, so I got about a years supply of that. Since then I've been stockpiling a years worth of other non-perishables.

Outside of the coronavirus, it's better to not have to think about buying toothpaste with any regularity.

My shopping philosophy is primarily driven by two principles -- 1) Buy regularly used items when on sale 2) there are fixed and variable time components to shopping.

I'm not just going to buy what I need for the next week or two. I'm going to buy what I need for as many months as possible (while on sale, of course).

Vinny

[sophie]

If the coronavirus starts spreading here in the US, it'll be bad, but not THAT bad.

I looked up some statistics to gauge its impact compared to the flu. In a nutshell, the mortality rate is higher than the flu, but it is not as contagious. There are 75,000 known cases in China; in reality the number will be much larger since those are only the ones who come to medical attention. The rest have mild cases or are asymptomatic. The population of Wuhan, China (just that city) is 11 million, so the penetrance of moderate/severe disease is low. Even if you assume the real moderate/severe case load is double the official estimate, or 150,000, AND assume they are all located in the city of Wuhan, the penetrance so far is no worse than 1.3%.

Contrast this to the flu. CDC says that so far this season, there are 29 million cases of the flu in the US (which is almost 10% of the population), with 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths. Flu mortality is around 0.1% on average (it gets worse depending on the strain). The mortality estimated for the coronavirus, so far, is around 2%.

For both flu and coronavirus, most of the mortality occurs in the elderly (over age 80) and people with pre-existing respiratory or metabolic conditions like COPD or heart disease. Note that people in this age group and with that health status probably don't contribute a whole lot to the economy...sorry if that sounds heartless.

So taken together, coronavirus will cause moderate/severe illness in fewer people, but I would expect mortality to pretty much on par with the flu. The way the timing is working out, it's likely that coronavirus here will be at its worst AFTER the flu season has passed, which is most fortunate. The main problem that I can foresee is that hospitals wouldn't be able to handle the surge in cases if the two occurred at the same time, because hospital beds and required staffing ratios among tons of other regulations have limited capacity to a bare minimum to handle flu season.

There will be lots of sad stories and media-stoked panic of course. My guess is that those will pose the greatest danger to the economy, but it may also be helpful to have a lot more people working from home and avoiding travel. I'd probably tell my 84 year old mom to stay home, order food delivery instead of grocery shop, and put her volunteer gig on hold for the duration. And I'll probably limit travel for myself.

[Libertarian666]

For both flu and coronavirus, most of the mortality occurs in the elderly (over age 80) and people with pre-existing respiratory or metabolic conditions like COPD or heart disease. Note that people in this age group and with that health status probably don't contribute a whole lot to the economy...sorry if that sounds heartless.

Wow, I'm glad I'm only 70!

[dualstow]

Not a word about “it” — Covid-19? That’s the coronavirus.
...
(Our cat eats both wet and dry food, vet recommended).

The coronavirus.

I read an extensive cat food recommendation by a highly knowledgeable vet. She pointed out that cats have low third drives and that, therefore, wet food is best for them. Feeding them dry food just promotes the possibilities of that dreaded kidney disease. I had to watch three of my most beloved cats suffer with that at the ends of their lives.

I don't know what paper you're reading, but it seems to be on the top page of most news sources I read. And, I think yesterday, they finally used the word "pandemic." So far, not too much fear mongering, despite the CDC's notification that an outbreak in the U.S. is a matter of 'when' not 'if.'

A few of my friends are nervous, but they're Japan.

A "low third drive" - well, my cat has an automatic transmission, so it's out of my hands.

[glennds]

If the coronavirus starts spreading here in the US, it'll be bad, but not THAT bad.

I looked up some statistics to gauge its impact compared to the flu. In a nutshell, the mortality rate is higher than the flu, but it is not as contagious. There are 75,000 known cases in China; in reality the number will be much larger since those are only the ones who come to medical attention. The rest have mild cases or are asymptomatic. The population of Wuhan, China (just that city) is 11 million, so the penetrance of moderate/severe disease is low. Even if you assume the real moderate/severe case load is double the official estimate, or 150,000, AND assume they are all located in the city of Wuhan, the penetrance so far is no worse than 1.3%.

Contrast this to the flu. CDC says that so far this season, there are 29 million cases of the flu in the US (which is almost 10% of the population), with 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths. Flu mortality is around 0.1% on average (it gets worse depending on the strain). The mortality estimated for the coronavirus, so far, is around 2%.

For both flu and coronavirus, most of the mortality occurs in the elderly (over age 80) and people with pre-existing respiratory or metabolic conditions like COPD or heart disease. Note that people in this age group and with that health status probably don't contribute a whole lot to the economy...sorry if that sounds heartless.

So taken together, coronavirus will cause moderate/severe illness in fewer people, but I would expect mortality to pretty much on par with the flu. The way the timing is working out, it's likely that coronavirus here will be at its worst AFTER the flu season has passed, which is most fortunate. The main problem that I can foresee is that hospitals wouldn't be able to handle the surge in cases if the two occurred at the same time, because hospital beds and required staffing ratios among tons of other regulations have limited capacity to a bare minimum to handle flu season.

There will be lots of sad stories and media-stoked panic of course. My guess is that those will pose the greatest danger to the economy, but it may also be helpful to have a lot more people working from home and avoiding travel. I'd probably tell my 84 year old mom to stay home, order food delivery instead of grocery shop, and put her volunteer gig on hold for the duration. And I'll probably limit travel for myself.

This is a very rational overview. But like so many things the stats can be a bit deceptive. The difference between a 0.1% mortality rate and 2% is enormous. So I wouldn't make light of the potential of the virus.

But I agree with Sophie's broader point that there is a difference between bad and epic catastrophe. In the US, the public health infrastructure is very good, and we have some precious preparation time while we watch the outbreak spread in other countries. I think it would have been better if China had embraced outside experts earlier.
Yes if we have a large number of infections and hospitalizations, it will put a strain on the system, but just like the flu, reasonable precautions like avoidance of crowded places and frequent handwashing can have a good defensive effect.

Also, this is a good time for people to think about the basic practices that can help boost your personal immunity. These can be things like getting adequate sleep, eating a good diet, staying hydrated, not drinking too much alcohol or wearing yourself down. This advice probably sounds childishly academic, but it is surprising how many people handicap their own immunity.

The economic effects of this health crisis are something to watch. There are certain countries at greater risk than others. For example Japan is already feeling economic pressure, and if the Olympics are cancelled, I think it will be a major blow to the world's third largest economy, already living on the borrowed credit of massive QE and ZIRP. Japan'd debt to GDP ratio is a staggering 238%. Just like 1997 where Thailand's currency collapse triggered economic contagion that spread to many other countries, we could have a similar domino effect with COVID-19 being the match that lights it. I hope this doesn't happen, but if it does, the PP or some similar defensive portfolio will be a good, or at least better, place to be.
Glenn

[vnatale]

Not a word about “it” — Covid-19? That’s the coronavirus.
...
(Our cat eats both wet and dry food, vet recommended).

The coronavirus.

I read an extensive cat food recommendation by a highly knowledgeable vet. She pointed out that cats have low third drives and that, therefore, wet food is best for them. Feeding them dry food just promotes the possibilities of that dreaded kidney disease. I had to watch three of my most beloved cats suffer with that at the ends of their lives.

I don't know what paper you're reading, but it seems to be on the top page of most news sources I read. And, I think yesterday, they finally used the word "pandemic." So far, not too much fear mongering, despite the CDC's notification that an outbreak in the U.S. is a matter of 'when' not 'if.'

A few of my friends are nervous, but they're Japan.

A "low third drive" - well, my cat has an automatic transmission, so it's out of my hands.

1. This is the paper I read. They give priority to local news. https://www.recorder.com/

2. Just corrected it to "low thirst drive"...but I think you may have already known what I meant. But thanks anyway for pointing out my error.

Vinny

[pmward]

I would actually take the other side and argue that the corona virus here would be worse than expected. A few reasons for this.

1) Exponential growth. While the absolute case count still seems low in comparison to the flu, cases are doubling every 24-48 hours. It really only takes a couple months of exponential growth before the whole world literally is infected. Compound growth, great for investments, bad for viruses.

2) America will not lock down to the same extreme as China has. Americans in general are also a bit more independent, selfish, and careless and these traits all promote spreading. Going out in public when you're sick here is more normal here than it is in other countries. Our culture itself will kind of hurt instead of help. Let's also not forget the general attitude of "this can't happen here" is pervading. The general public is not taking it seriously.

3) The mortality rate is actually above even SARS at this point in the lifecycle. The problem with mortality rate as it always seems artificially low in the exponential growth phase. The reason? The case count is compounding every 1-2 days. So comparing the cases today to the death rate from the cases that existed 2-4 weeks ago means the mortality rate is way underestimated. The amount of cases are growing so fast it is really impossible to guess the mortality rate until it's all said and done. This very well could be 6-7% mortality. Not saying that I believe it is that high, but it is possible. Either way, it's worse than the media is reporting because their statistics are comparing today's case count to todays death's, which skews the mortality rate way low.

4) We have testing requirements that are a joke in the U.S. The CDC dropped the ball and did not really even begin to take the virus seriously until this week. They are now behind the curve. They also created a bunch of bad tests, so we have only a total of 500 tests in only 3 states until at least mid march. And even then, it's doubtful we will have enough tests to truly be able to test as thoroughly as needed. This could already be here spreading silently. Actually, I would go so far as to say that it's probable that it is already here spreading. Let's not forget, it is estimated that it spread silently in China from October/November all the way to mid Jan. By the time they realized the problem it was already too late, they were already behind the curve. We are stuck behind the curve and unprepared.

5) Mortality rate will start off low here, because of our better health care. But, there are only so many ICU beds available, only so many respirators available, etc. If the hospitals get flooded there will be no difference between our health care and third world countries. The hospitalization rate currently looks to be 20% (and this also suffers from the same artificial downward bias as mortality rate) so it could overwhelm our hospitals pretty easily. We also do not have the authoritative response potential that China has; there's no way we could spin up a new hospital from the ground up in a matter of days like they have.

6) I feel like the CDC completely dropped the ball as far as educating both the public and the medical professionals. They also dropped the ball in beginning to prepare facilities, testing, etc. I really get the feeling that they did not take the threat seriously until it started spreading in Italy this last weekend. It was good to see them shift their stance yesterday, but their response actions still leave a lot to be desired.

The government is in a tough spot as they somehow need to communicate and educate but avoid creating panic. So far, their response seems more skewed towards avoiding panic at the direct cost of education. The communication has been very poor. I think the U.S. has so far handled the situation about as poorly as they could have. This has created risks that otherwise could have been avoided, and put us way behind the curve on preparations. We have never had to deal with a pandemic here in the U.S. at least in the modern era. This could prove to be a very painful lesson to learn.

EDIT: as soon as I finish typing this I come across this bit o' news: https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/02 ... ronavirus/

[sophie]

pmward, don't believe everything you read in the media - facts OK, but conclusions, not so much.

Your point #1: Not the case. Cases in China are leveling off. The worldwide curve will tick up again as the virus invades new regions/countries - which I agree is inevitable - but WITHIN a region, you won't get continued exponential growth. That was my point that this virus is not as contagious as flu (thankfully), either that or there are a lot of asymptomatic infections.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Your point #3: Yes, 2% is greater than 0.1%. If you put your math hat on, you realize that mortality has to be multiplied by case prevalence to get a better picture of badness. By your yardstick, throat cancer, for example, is way worse than the coronavirus because its mortality is much higher than 2%. However, its prevalence is vanishingly small, so we don't think about it much. Also note that some flu seasons have mortality figures closer to 1%, depends on the strain. And I bet you never noticed.

Your point #6: Yes, I spoke to that in my message about hospital capacity. It may get to the point of deferring elective surgeries and lining up gurneys in hallways, but we will handle it ok as long as coronavirus is not stacked on top of flu season, when hospitals are already at capacity. That was my main worry, and I think we are going to luck out with the timing. I also expect the virus is already here btw, but it be a few weeks at least before we start seeing large numbers of cases. By then, flu cases should be down quite a bit.

Still being the optimist....but yes, I do think it will be like a very bad extra flu season, and it WILL affect daily life. I'm just saying it's not the end of the world that people are making it out to be.

[dualstow]

1. This is the paper I read. They give priority to local news. https://www.recorder.com/

2. Just corrected it to "low thirst drive"...but I think you may have already known what I meant. But thanks anyway for pointing out my error.

Ah, local news. That explains it.

Yes, I knew what you meant. Lately, I've been typing the wrong words, too. I usually catch them in editing, but it still troubles me. I didn't used to mindlessly type "decide" when I meant to write another word that begins with "de."

I know political debates are not a good source of news -- just the opposite -- but I heard Bloomberg state something last night like Trump fired a "pandemic expert" some time ago. Is that true? Anyone know his or her name?

[pmward]

pmward, don't believe everything you read in the media - facts OK, but conclusions, not so much.

Your point #1: Not the case. Cases in China are leveling off. The worldwide curve will tick up again as the virus invades new regions/countries - which I agree is inevitable - but WITHIN a region, you won't get continued exponential growth. That was my point that this virus is not as contagious as flu (thankfully), either that or there are a lot of asymptomatic infections.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Your point #3: Yes, 2% is greater than 0.1%. If you put your math hat on, you realize that mortality has to be multiplied by case prevalence to get a better picture of badness. By your yardstick, throat cancer, for example, is way worse than the coronavirus because its mortality is much higher than 2%. However, its prevalence is vanishingly small, so we don't think about it much. Also note that some flu seasons have mortality figures closer to 1%, depends on the strain. And I bet you never noticed.

Your point #6: Yes, I spoke to that in my message about hospital capacity. It may get to the point of deferring elective surgeries and lining up gurneys in hallways, but we will handle it ok as long as coronavirus is not stacked on top of flu season, when hospitals are already at capacity. That was my main worry, and I think we are going to luck out with the timing. I also expect the virus is already here btw, but it be a few weeks at least before we start seeing large numbers of cases. By then, flu cases should be down quite a bit.

Still being the optimist....but yes, I do think it will be like a very bad extra flu season, and it WILL affect daily life. I'm just saying it's not the end of the world that people are making it out to be.

China has changed the way they count cases twice in the last week alone. I really don't trust their data about it leveling off. I am looking more at the cases outside of China, which are currently doubling every 24-48 hours.

I'm not sure where you get the comparison between throat cancer and corona virus. Maybe I'm missing something in connecting the dots? It's common knowledge that mortality rates are always biased lower during an exponential growth phase like we are currently in. Throat cancer does not grow exponentially, it is not viral, and it also doesn't kill people in a matter of weeks. Completely different animal.

Also, I agree it's likely already here. I'm not sure we will even see a case count here in a couple weeks though because if we are not testing we cannot have a case count. It would be mid-March at least, when our next order of tests arrive, before we would have any knowledge of any breakouts here. So right now we have no way of knowing unfortunately. Until then, we don't know what we don't know. The asymptomatic spreading is crazy, that is such a nasty trait.

I also agree it's not the end of the world. But I do think that people are underestimating it as a threat. I do not see people panicking personally, I see people mostly shrugging it off as if it cannot happen here. This may admittedly just be the circles I'm in though. I'm not saying to panic, but on the other hand we also shouldn't brush it off either. I think that the threat is greater than the public currently realizes. I'm at least glad the CDC finally acknowledged the issue publicly yesterday. Let's hope they are doing a better job preparing than it appears.

[vnatale]

Yes, I knew what you meant. Lately, I've been typing the wrong words, too. I usually catch them in editing, but it still troubles me. I didn't used to mindlessly type "decide" when I meant to write another word that begins with "de."

I'm continually shocked (for an innumerable amount of times) when I go back to proof certain emails and see what I actually wrote instead of what had been in my mind.

Vinny

[glennds]

The amount of cases are growing so fast it is really impossible to guess the mortality rate until it's all said and done. This very well could be 6-7% mortality. Not saying that I believe it is that high, but it is possible. Either way, it's worse than the media is reporting because their statistics are comparing today's case count to todays death's, which skews the mortality rate way low.

Actually most of the interviews I have heard with scientific public health professionals seems to indicate that the mortality rate of 2% being quoted is overstated because mild cases are not being considered in the early stage. So on the one hand you're right that an accurate mortality rate may have to wait until all is said and done, but the professionals believe it will come down not go up.