Emerging Consumers Drive Gold Prices:

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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stone
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Emerging Consumers Drive Gold Prices:

Post by stone »

Something on the GMO website says that gold prices are driven increasingly by Asian consumers:
http://www.gmo.com/America/default.htm
"Gold purchases over the past 10 years have been derived increasingly from emerging markets, especially emerging
Asian countries (with India, China, and Vietnam accounting for the bulk of the increase in demand). Whereas in
1999, emerging Asia accounted for only 39% of global gold demand, by 2010 this figure had reached 57% and has
increased since then. Exhibit 2 illustrates emerging Asia’s increasing influence: from 1999 to 2010 its share of global
gold demand increased from 39% to 57% by 2010 and is concomitant with the rapid rise in gold prices.....

.....Exhibit 4 shows aggregate demand of gold from 2000 to 2010 based on data from the World Gold Council. A total of
29,342 tons of gold were purchased for both investment and jewelry.
A number of interesting observations can be drawn from the data:
• Developed market purchases of gold bars and jewelry accounted for 7,200 tons, or 25%.
• Despite all of the attention in the media, ETFs accounted for only 2,200 tons, less than 7.5% of the total.
• Central banks were net sellers of 3,300 tons, even as the Chinese and Russian central banks purchased 1,050
tons.
• Retail purchases from emerging markets totaled over 23,200 tons, a staggering 79% of total demand, far and
away the primary demand component over this period
• China and India alone combined for a total of 9,000 tons, a figure that is more than the developed world as a
whole and four times aggregate ETF demand."......

.......combined gross savings in China and India increased from $557
billion in 2000 to $3.4 trillion in 2010. Essentially, there was an enormous increase of money available to invest and,
given the lack of good alternatives, gold was a preferred choice.
Last edited by stone on Sun Jan 29, 2012 7:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgment." - Mulla Nasrudin
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