The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Libertarian666
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:01 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:57 am
We’ve been on the same hopium for a while now.
Even if equities tanked 100% I would still be way ahead of my gold position. Big mistake!
So if your stocks went down to 0 that would still be better than gold?

Wow, that is terrible!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:04 am

Ooh $1284.50 now
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:38 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:01 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:57 am
We’ve been on the same hopium for a while now.
Even if equities tanked 100% I would still be way ahead of my gold position. Big mistake!
So if your stocks went down to 0 that would still be better than gold?

Wow, that is terrible!
Yup, and since your buy you’ve stunk it up...too bad.
Yet my 70/30 is up 340K YTD.
How’s your gold YTD?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by eufo » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:29 am

I think gold has potentially a way to fall yet.

Harry Dent is thinking $700/oz down to $400/oz? Seems extreme, but who knows?
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:45 am

eufo wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:29 am
I think gold has potentially a way to fall yet.

Harry Dent is thinking $700/oz down to $400/oz? Seems extreme, but who knows?
That makes more sense to me as it’s pretty much useless.
I can see divesting away from precious metals and being successful, but this 25% allocation to Gold is awful. Almost anything but gold would be better.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by stuper1 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:51 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:38 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:01 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:57 am
We’ve been on the same hopium for a while now.
Even if equities tanked 100% I would still be way ahead of my gold position. Big mistake!
So if your stocks went down to 0 that would still be better than gold?

Wow, that is terrible!
Yup, and since your buy you’ve stunk it up...too bad.
Yet my 70/30 is up 340K YTD.
How’s your gold YTD?
Ok, if I did the math right, that means you, Buddtholomew, have about $12M in your portfolio, and yet you spend your time coming on here to whine about gold's poor performance over the last few years. I'd like to think that if I had that much in my portfolio, I would not be worried about money at all and would find plenty of other things to keep me busy. But, lest you forget so easily, gold saved the decade of 2000 to 2010 for those who held enough to make a difference (sadly not me).
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:00 am

stuper1 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:51 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:38 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:01 am


So if your stocks went down to 0 that would still be better than gold?

Wow, that is terrible!
Yup, and since your buy you’ve stunk it up...too bad.
Yet my 70/30 is up 340K YTD.
How’s your gold YTD?
Ok, if I did the math right, that means you, Buddtholomew, have about $12M in your portfolio, and yet you spend your time coming on here to whine about gold's poor performance over the last few years. I'd like to think that if I had that much in my portfolio, I would not be worried about money at all and would find plenty of other things to keep me busy. But, lest you forget so easily, gold saved the decade of 2000 to 2010 for those who held enough to make a difference (sadly not me).
No shit, I was just figuring the same thing!

And the drop is likely a delayed reaction to what the dollar did yesterday. It was surprising it didn't do it in lockstep as usual.

Image
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:05 am

stuper1 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:51 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:38 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:01 am


So if your stocks went down to 0 that would still be better than gold?

Wow, that is terrible!
Yup, and since your buy you’ve stunk it up...too bad.
Yet my 70/30 is up 340K YTD.
How’s your gold YTD?
Ok, if I did the math right, that means you, Buddtholomew, have about $12M in your portfolio, and yet you spend your time coming on here to whine about gold's poor performance over the last few years. I'd like to think that if I had that much in my portfolio, I would not be worried about money at all and would find plenty of other things to keep me busy. But, lest you forget so easily, gold saved the decade of 2000 to 2010 for those who held enough to make a difference (sadly not me).
It’s actually closer to 14M.
I spend my time as I see fit, 3-4 hours at the gym and 4-5 on development.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:37 am

budd, congrats, I am jealous.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:38 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:38 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:01 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:57 am
We’ve been on the same hopium for a while now.
Even if equities tanked 100% I would still be way ahead of my gold position. Big mistake!
So if your stocks went down to 0 that would still be better than gold?

Wow, that is terrible!
Yup, and since your buy you’ve stunk it up...too bad.
Yet my 70/30 is up 340K YTD.
How’s your gold YTD?
If you are 70% in stocks and your stocks went down 100%, that would mean you would lose 70% of your portfolio.

Obviously math isn't your strong suit.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:42 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:37 am
budd, congrats, I am jealous.
Don’t be corto, I am a slave to my brain or lack thereof...
I focus less on the things that money can resolve and more on the things that any amount of money can’t resolve.
Always something for me to worry about.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:45 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:38 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:38 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:01 am


So if your stocks went down to 0 that would still be better than gold?

Wow, that is terrible!
Yup, and since your buy you’ve stunk it up...too bad.
Yet my 70/30 is up 340K YTD.
How’s your gold YTD?
If you are 70% in stocks and your stocks went down 100%, that would mean you would lose 70% of your portfolio.

Obviously math isn't your strong suit.
I would still have 30% in fixed income which is LTD +.
Gold is LTD -ve.
Last edited by buddtholomew on Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by hardlawjockey » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:49 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:05 am
stuper1 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:51 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:38 am


Yup, and since your buy you’ve stunk it up...too bad.
Yet my 70/30 is up 340K YTD.
How’s your gold YTD?
Ok, if I did the math right, that means you, Buddtholomew, have about $12M in your portfolio, and yet you spend your time coming on here to whine about gold's poor performance over the last few years. I'd like to think that if I had that much in my portfolio, I would not be worried about money at all and would find plenty of other things to keep me busy. But, lest you forget so easily, gold saved the decade of 2000 to 2010 for those who held enough to make a difference (sadly not me).
It’s actually closer to 14M.
That explains a lot. At least multi-million dollar market fluctuations are something I'll never have to worry about.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by stuper1 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:07 pm

$14M in the bank, and you still come on here to make the rest of us miserable? Come on, man, have a little decency. If you're going to come on here, bring some kind of uplifting quote about the rewards of working hard or living in a great country or something.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:10 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:07 pm
$14M in the bank, and you still come on here to make the rest of us miserable? Come on, man, have a little decency. If you're going to come on here, bring some kind of uplifting quote about the rewards of working hard or living in a great country or something.
No, all he has to share is bile and spite.

I've blocked him for that reason. Maybe if no one responds to his vitriol, he'll take the hint and leave.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:14 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:10 pm
stuper1 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:07 pm
$14M in the bank, and you still come on here to make the rest of us miserable? Come on, man, have a little decency. If you're going to come on here, bring some kind of uplifting quote about the rewards of working hard or living in a great country or something.
No, all he has to share is bile and spite.

I've blocked him for that reason. Maybe if no one responds to his vitriol, he'll take the hint and leave.
I've blocked you...funny how you respond to all my posts (hmm).
I don't make you miserable, you decide to be miserable on your own.
I am an immigrant and old habits die hard when you arrive in the US with a family of 6 and 8K total.
I don't owe any of you shit and will be as cordial as you are to me.
Read or don't read my posts I don't care.
It's for me anyway.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by stuper1 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:52 pm

Ok, Budd, time for you to inspire us a bit with some of your backstory. Trust me, you owe us this after having to read your griping for years. Tell us a little more about you and how you were able to amass $14M. Where did you immigrate from, how old were you, what was your career path, what were the keys to your success, anything else?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:17 pm

Yeah, I'd be curious to hear the back story as well. I don't really mind the griping though as I think we all have a mini budd sitting on our shoulder thinking about what could have been.

A few thoughts...

budd, you are familiar with the sunk cost fallacy, correct? Maybe you are just a Boglehead through and through and should just go to something like 60/40 and call it a day. It seems like that would ease your mind a bit and you haven't really lost all that much by holding 7.5% in gold. Sure, it might be a lot in dollars, but I would think relatively little in percentage terms.

One could even argue that at 7.5% you are at the very low end in terms of holding a slice of an asset that can really drive your portfolio forward when it is time for that asset to perform. Maybe ask yourself what the impact to your portfolio would be if gold were to, say, quadruple in price over a five or ten year period while stocks were struggling to keep up in real terms.

Gold is kind of supposed to perform like crap when stocks are on a tear as they have been for nine years now. But most of us around here are at least somewhat concerned about sequence of returns risk (having recently retired, with a decent nest egg but not a huge abundance, I know that I am). It sounds like you have amassed enough money that you could withstand a pretty extreme stock/bond downturn and still be OK. In my case, I just figure that with me being on the bubble with about 25X expenses (and hoping to live another 30-40 years), I'm likely to see gold do well, and carry my portfolio, another time or two in my lifetime. Of course I might have to wait another ten years for that to happen but I'll be OK with that as long as something in my asset mix is doing well.

I believe Machine Ghost once wrote something on here along the lines of "Stocks are the engine of the PP and everything else is just some kind of hedge." My own version is "How high of a stock allocation can I have before I start to worry about a stock market crash?" For me that number seems to be somewhere around a third. When I add everything up (LTTs, Cash Gold & Stocks) across all accounts, I look at my roughly 33/67 allocation as a conservative cash-heavy Boglehead portfolio with, hopefully, better inflation & deflation protection.

Again, just some thoughts.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:40 pm

Barrett, well said.

Budd, I’m with stuper, I’d like to hear your story. Sounds like quite a ride.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Dieter » Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:47 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:40 pm
Barrett, well said
+1
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:58 am

I found the wiki page with all the backstory you need. Just took a bit of googling.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:56 am

dualstow wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:58 am
I found the wiki page with all the backstory you need. Just took a bit of googling.
Haha, nice DS!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:06 am

barrett wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:17 pm
One could even argue that at 7.5% you are at the very low end in terms of holding a slice of an asset that can really drive your portfolio forward when it is time for that asset to perform. Maybe ask yourself what the impact to your portfolio would be if gold were to, say, quadruple in price over a five or ten year period while stocks were struggling to keep up in real terms.
I wonder if Budd's gold slice is too big for a $14 M portfolio. It all depends on what is his "amount that he can't afford to lose". If he's trying to keep 7.5% and it makes him miserable, that means his implicit PP allocation is 30%, or $4.2 M. It seems high to me, if I had $14 M I think I'd consider my "can't afford to lose = PP allocation" to be $2 M. Maybe Budd has just too much gold. Maybe he should be at 4%.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:21 am

ochotona wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:06 am
barrett wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:17 pm
One could even argue that at 7.5% you are at the very low end in terms of holding a slice of an asset that can really drive your portfolio forward when it is time for that asset to perform. Maybe ask yourself what the impact to your portfolio would be if gold were to, say, quadruple in price over a five or ten year period while stocks were struggling to keep up in real terms.
I wonder if Budd's gold slice is too big for a $14 M portfolio. It all depends on what is his "amount that he can't afford to lose". If he's trying to keep 7.5% and it makes him miserable, that means his implicit PP allocation is 30%, or $4.2 M. It seems high to me, if I had $14 M I think I'd consider my "can't afford to lose = PP allocation" to be $2 M. Maybe Budd has just too much gold. Maybe he should be at 4%.
I don't think it is gold that he has too much of.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:50 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:56 am

Nohing magical...
UCLA, AEC, Biotech, eCommerce industries as a Director of Business Intelligence/Big Data
Married a Dr.
Inheritance
Save 20-25% annually.
Invested in 2008/2009 and biotech was bought out in 2011.
Lucky and hard work!
Very interesting! I've always been curious, too.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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