The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:07 am

ochotona wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:55 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:23 pm
Good points; avoids marking to market daily.
If houses were marked-to-market every day, some people would not be able to stand that information flow, and they'd remain renters.
That’s what Zillow is for; I use the estimate to calculate equity and total net worth monthly. My house is not an investment although it has done well in the Bay Area since my purchase in 2005.
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eufo
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by eufo » Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:01 am

I'm marking my gold to market each Sunday. It seems a good balance to me.

I'm kind of cheating, because I'm using APMEX's portfolio tool which is over spot. It's still a nice way to keep track of things. It makes me want to diversify into other precious metals, though... hmmm
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mukramesh » Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:22 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:45 pm
I love clipping these charts...
Hi Corto, how did you get peaktotrough.com to give you data for 2018? When I go to the site, it shows the last date for stocks and gold is 10/31/2017 and the last date for bonds is 12/08/2017. The site just hangs indefinitely when I try to use a date after these.
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:18 pm

mukramesh wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:22 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:45 pm
I love clipping these charts...
Hi Corto, how did you get peaktotrough.com to give you data for 2018? When I go to the site, it shows the last date for stocks and gold is 10/31/2017 and the last date for bonds is 12/08/2017. The site just hangs indefinitely when I try to use a date after these.
mukramesh, Iooks like my chart has the same issue you describe, but isn't visible because of the longer date range. Darn, guess I won't be using that anymore.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:30 am

Precious...haha
I have a lot of $ sitting at about breakeven (10-12 lots).
What would you do?
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:12 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:30 am
Precious...haha
I have a lot of $ sitting at about breakeven (10-12 lots).
What would you do?
Buy gold? Seriously. Who likes gold anymore? Only goes down. Market down, gold down, market up, gold down, like you recently wrote.

I would have to say this has got to be a low point in the mood to want to own gold. It has been bashed over and over again for 6 years. Relentless. So many fits and starts.

But what do I know? (I should trademark this)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:14 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:30 am
Precious...haha
I have a lot of $ sitting at about breakeven (10-12 lots).
What would you do?
If I had over US$5MM, I *think* I’d buy four times a year. That figure represents confidence that I could support my lifestyle even at low interest rates and still have tons left over.

Since I don’t have that amount, I’m looking to buy gold at $1000 per oz, or maybe even 1100.
(I’m still within rebalancing bands, so with no new cash, I can choose to do nothing for now).
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:04 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:14 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:30 am
Precious...haha
I have a lot of $ sitting at about breakeven (10-12 lots).
What would you do?
If I had over US$5MM, I *think* I’d buy four times a year. That figure represents confidence that I could support my lifestyle even at low interest rates and still have tons left over.

Since I don’t have that amount, I’m looking to buy gold at $1000 per oz, or maybe even 1100.
(I’m still within rebalancing bands, so with no new cash, I can choose to do nothing for now).
Between 1250 and 1100 is a 12% loss to existing holdings.
I want to reduce gold but then where do the proceeds go? I too can decide to do nothing or sell some for perhaps more cash. Then I’m back to looking for an entry point that will most likely end up being higher than when I sell.
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:45 am

You don't have a high percentage in gold. Do you really have to reduce?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:59 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:04 pm
Then I’m back to looking for an entry point that will most likely end up being higher than when I sell.
Exactly why I stopped trying to time things. Wrong way more than 50% of the time.

Look at all the gold pundits scrambling now on gold to massage their messages, maybe not 2018 but certainly 2019, blah blah. Intricate technical analysis, waves, charts, CoTs, China/India gold love trade, gold moving from west to east, all BS wrong prognostication from people who might have been right once and now think they can be right again, after being wrong for a very long time.

This is where I see comments dwindling to a fraction of what they used to be on some of these pro-gold sites. If anything, that signals to me we have reach selling exhaustion.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:01 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:45 am
You don't have a high percentage in gold. Do you really have to reduce?
I don’t have to reduce but I also don’t have to hold.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:04 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:59 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:04 pm
Then I’m back to looking for an entry point that will most likely end up being higher than when I sell.
Exactly why I stopped trying to time things. Wrong way more than 50% of the time.

Look at all the gold pundits scrambling now on gold to massage their messages, maybe not 2018 but certainly 2019, blah blah. Intricate technical analysis, waves, charts, CoTs, China/India gold love trade, gold moving from west to east, all BS wrong prognostication from people who might have been right once and now think they can be right again, after being wrong for a very long time.

This is where I see comments dwindling to a fraction of what they used to be on some of these pro-gold sites. If anything, that signals to me we have reach selling exhaustion.
It looks to me like the reflation story has stalled and therefore the momentum for gold as well. Just add my opinion to the mix.
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