The GOLD scream room

[Cortopassi]

Conversely, tariffs kick in and stocks jump. Yeah, down a little today, but looking like they'll probably end green.

Nothing makes a lot of sense.

From Slope of Hope: "In a normal, rational market, a United States President openly declaring a trade war on the biggest economy on the planet and ratcheting it up with tariffs on $200 billion in goods would be a LIMIT-DOWN situation (followed by similar limit-down days, day after day, until he backpedaled). In this insane asylum, however, the NQ has already bounced 50 points off its panic low, and the ES is cheerfully healing itself."

Tell me stocks make sense in their reactions. About as much as gold.

[buddtholomew]

Conversely, tariffs kick in and stocks jump. Yeah, down a little today, but looking like they'll probably end green.

Nothing makes a lot of sense.

From Slope of Hope: "In a normal, rational market, a United States President openly declaring a trade war on the biggest economy on the planet and ratcheting it up with tariffs on $200 billion in goods would be a LIMIT-DOWN situation (followed by similar limit-down days, day after day, until he backpedaled). In this insane asylum, however, the NQ has already bounced 50 points off its panic low, and the ES is cheerfully healing itself."

Tell me stocks make sense in their reactions. About as much as gold.

Agree that nothing makes sense at all...
But the one common denominator is stocks +, gold - or stocks -, gold -.
That is clear as day.

[Cortopassi]

Conversely, tariffs kick in and stocks jump. Yeah, down a little today, but looking like they'll probably end green.

Nothing makes a lot of sense.

From Slope of Hope: "In a normal, rational market, a United States President openly declaring a trade war on the biggest economy on the planet and ratcheting it up with tariffs on $200 billion in goods would be a LIMIT-DOWN situation (followed by similar limit-down days, day after day, until he backpedaled). In this insane asylum, however, the NQ has already bounced 50 points off its panic low, and the ES is cheerfully healing itself."

Tell me stocks make sense in their reactions. About as much as gold.

Agree that nothing makes sense at all...
But the one common denominator is stocks +, gold - or stocks -, gold -.
That is clear as day.

You yanking my chain? Back to Sophie's point about long periods. Budd, what would you have been saying about the 6 year period I show below? You think it can't/won't happen again?

If anything, these excursions seem to get greater as time goes on. So I'd fully expect for the next stock downturn to be worse than 2008.



Or this even much longer period (I forgot I could use SPY). Actually this chart is likely wrong, GLD only goes back to late 2004, so gold would be higher.



Here's Kitco from 2000 to now. Gold blew the pants off stocks for 11 years.

[buddtholomew]

dupe

[buddtholomew]

Conversely, tariffs kick in and stocks jump. Yeah, down a little today, but looking like they'll probably end green.

Nothing makes a lot of sense.

From Slope of Hope: "In a normal, rational market, a United States President openly declaring a trade war on the biggest economy on the planet and ratcheting it up with tariffs on $200 billion in goods would be a LIMIT-DOWN situation (followed by similar limit-down days, day after day, until he backpedaled). In this insane asylum, however, the NQ has already bounced 50 points off its panic low, and the ES is cheerfully healing itself."

Tell me stocks make sense in their reactions. About as much as gold.

Agree that nothing makes sense at all...
But the one common denominator is stocks +, gold - or stocks -, gold -.
That is clear as day.

You yanking my chain? Back to Sophie's point about long periods. Budd, what would you have been saying about the 6 year period I show below? You think it can't/won't happen again?

If anything, these excursions seem to get greater as time goes on. So I'd fully expect for the next stock downturn to be worse than 2008.



Or this even much longer period (I forgot I could use SPY). Actually this chart is likely wrong, GLD only goes back to late 2004, so gold would be higher.



Here's Kitco from 2000 to now. Gold blew the pants off stocks for 11 years.

If I was invested in the PP over that timeframe I would have been posting in the Stock Scream room.

[Cortopassi]

Budd, no worries about having to post in the stock scream room anytime soon.

I think there should be another gold topic called the 5 stages of owning gold. Somewhere between depression and acceptance right now...

[buddtholomew]

Yes, I am at acceptance now Corto.
At some point you are just beaten into submission.

[ochotona]

I don't think we've really hit the bottom of sentiment. Honestly... a goodly fraction of Baby Boomers who hold gold are going to have to die, and then their Millennial heirs are going to sell it off when they inherit. Gold may go lower.

Someday we will hit a geological peak gold scenario, and then the US budget and debt problem will eventually flare up.

That's why I only hold 10%. Because it will be hard to hold onto through crap like we are going through now for year after year, but it could really take off, we just don't know when. Could be in 10 years. Then you won't be able to get physical when you need to. My 10% will rise to 25% of my portfolio, then I'll have a PP.

[barrett]

I don't think we've really hit the bottom of sentiment. Honestly... a goodly fraction of Baby Boomers who hold gold are going to have to die, and then their Millennial heirs are going to sell it off when they inherit. Gold may go lower.

Ocho, Do you have any good links on what percentage of his or her wealth the average Boomer has in gold? I would think it would be quite low (and that some of it might be stashed in long-forgotten hiding places!).

I found this little bit of terrible investing advice while searching for the answer to the above:

http://www.wyattresearch.com/article/wh ... -buy-gold/

For those of you uninterested in reading the link, it's a short article from late 2011 saying that one should hold off on buying stocks until an ounce of gold is worth roughly the same as the level of the Dow Industrial Index ("So for instance, if the Dow drops to 5000 and gold rises to $5,000 an ounce, I would sell my gold and buy the Dow.").

Ouch!!!

[ochotona]

I am sure the "average" Boomer has way less than 1% in gold, but what I mean is that many gold investors are grey haired. This is an asset class that most Millenials bypass. It's too old fashioned.

[dualstow]

(barrett wrote)
For those of you uninterested in reading the link, it's a short article from late 2011 saying that one should hold off on buying stocks until an ounce of gold is worth roughly the same as the level of the Dow Industrial Index ("So for instance, if the Dow drops to 5000 and gold rises to $5,000 an ounce, I would sell my gold and buy the Dow.").

Ouch!!!

ha!

[Cortopassi]

I found this little bit of terrible investing advice while searching for the answer to the above:

http://www.wyattresearch.com/article/wh ... -buy-gold/

People get married to an idea or position and have a hard time letting go, with pretty much anything. Here is a guy (who I used to read) who has been haranguing against Amazon for years... you can go go back to 2015 posts about him talking about shorting Amazon, and him doing it, and being underwater, but not worried. AMZN was $350. It is what, over $1800 now? And he still talks about their fraud and ponzi accounting (I assume waiting for the day they do crash, and then claim he was right).

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/t ... rt-amazon/

From Apr 28, 2015: "Although shorting AMZN requires the ability and willingness to actively manage your risk exposure, it will ultimately be a grand-slam home run trade. "

But I am sure somehow it is justified in his mind that if it did go down a couple % for a short while after he posted his article, he was right.