The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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I Shrugged
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Mon May 23, 2022 9:27 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Sat May 21, 2022 1:16 am
I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well.
Stop making sense. Everyone wants to piss and moan about the last two months or whatever.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppnewbie » Mon May 23, 2022 9:36 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 9:27 pm
ppnewbie wrote:
Sat May 21, 2022 1:16 am
I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well.
Stop making sense. Everyone wants to piss and moan about the last two months or whatever.
I was once watching some variety show in the late 70’s and I remember a person who could mimic what another person was saying. He was an imperceptible amount behind the lead talker. Even though he looked like he was anticipating the persons words, he was actually following.

I see nearly everyone on TV doing the same. It’s super great fun to watch but who really knows what is going to happen.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by joypog » Mon May 23, 2022 11:34 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 9:27 pm
ppnewbie wrote:
Sat May 21, 2022 1:16 am
I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well.
Stop making sense. Everyone wants to piss and moan about the last two months or whatever.
what was the CAGR of bitcoin over the past 5 years?
1/n weirdo. US-TSM, US-SCV, Intl-SCV, LTT, STT, GLD + a little in MF
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppnewbie » Tue May 24, 2022 12:47 am

joypog wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 11:34 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 9:27 pm
ppnewbie wrote:
Sat May 21, 2022 1:16 am
I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well.
Stop making sense. Everyone wants to piss and moan about the last two months or whatever.
what was the CAGR of bitcoin over the past 5 years?
Based off of gbtc I think it’s 32.83%.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by joypog » Tue May 24, 2022 9:30 am

ppnewbie wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 12:47 am
joypog wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 11:34 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 9:27 pm
ppnewbie wrote:
Sat May 21, 2022 1:16 am
I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well.
Stop making sense. Everyone wants to piss and moan about the last two months or whatever.
what was the CAGR of bitcoin over the past 5 years?
Based off of gbtc I think it’s 32.83%.
once my finances settle down, I think I'm going to throw 1% at a BTC fund just to see where it goes. Even if it ends up being a tulip, at least it's a ticket to enjoy the ride with all the other crypto zombies.

interesting article...https://www.bankrate.com/investing/bitcoin-etfs/ .....I'm most definitely NOT a bleeding edge guy, so it makes sense to wait a bit longer before throwing some cash at this joyride.
1/n weirdo. US-TSM, US-SCV, Intl-SCV, LTT, STT, GLD + a little in MF
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue May 24, 2022 10:15 am

joypog wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 9:30 am
Even if it ends up being a tulip

cute O0
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
AP African American Studies course rejected by Florida to be revised, College Board says
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppnewbie » Tue May 24, 2022 10:25 am

dualstow wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 10:15 am
joypog wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 9:30 am
Even if it ends up being a tulip

cute O0
Put one percent GBTC in a HBPP in a backtest and see how it juices your returns over the last 5 years.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:05 am

Down to the 1830s (US$/ounce). I’m tempted to add to my allocation which is still on the light side of (PP + VP)
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
AP African American Studies course rejected by Florida to be revised, College Board says
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 10, 2022 12:48 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:05 am
Down to the 1830s (US$/ounce). I’m tempted to add to my allocation which is still on the light side of (PP + VP)
aaand it’s back to 1875. That was a very brief window.
Edit: although i see random year krugs are on sale at Apmex.
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
AP African American Studies course rejected by Florida to be revised, College Board says
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:39 pm

O0 O0 Love that black knight.
I did order a krug today.
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
AP African American Studies course rejected by Florida to be revised, College Board says
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:33 pm

Nobody expects the snaggish acquisition

(Ok that was a stretch, but I did my best).
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
AP African American Studies course rejected by Florida to be revised, College Board says
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Vil » Tue Jun 14, 2022 1:44 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:39 pm
O0 O0 Love that black knight.
I did order a krug today.
Guys, what's the spread you 'enjoy' as of now with Apmex (?) ?

The dealer I use (=Tavex, one of the biggest ones in EU, and leader in Northern Europe) is now on 2.7% for some of the bullion coins..
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:10 am

2.7% would be brilliant. I think I paid about 4.4
Apmex’s quoted spot often seems US$10 higher than what i see on Yahoo or a.j.p.m., before you even get to their markup. I use them because they get the gold to my door. O0 And sometimes I just have to have that new 2022 coin instead of random year. They are a pleasure to work with. I bought in person at a local store when I was starting out, just buying random year coins.
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
AP African American Studies course rejected by Florida to be revised, College Board says
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Jack Jones » Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:59 am

dualstow wrote:
Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:10 am
2.7% would be brilliant. I think I paid about 4.4
Apmex’s quoted spot often seems US$10 higher than what i see on Yahoo or a.j.p.m., before you even get to their markup. I use them because they get the gold to my door. O0 And sometimes I just have to have that new 2022 coin instead of random year. They are a pleasure to work with. I bought in person at a local store when I was starting out, just buying random year coins.
One downside of newly minted coins is that you lose some, shall we say, plausible deniability? In other words, you cannot claim to have purchased a 2022 coin in 2001. However, if you received a 2001 coin in 2022, you can say you obtained it anywhere between 2001-2022.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:18 am

Never thought of that! All my coins are going to heirs. I do have some krugs from the 70s and 80s.
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
AP African American Studies course rejected by Florida to be revised, College Board says
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:50 pm

Right now gold is the best horse at the glue factory.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:15 am

It is...one thing that's bugging me though. I monitor short term asset correlations pretty closely and gold is not going the direction we would like it to.

But yes, it is the least sucky. :-)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by glennds » Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:33 am

Kbg wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:15 am
It is...one thing that's bugging me though. I monitor short term asset correlations pretty closely and gold is not going the direction we would like it to.
Not yet at least. Have you (or anyone) looked at historical data on gold's responsiveness to changing economic conditions? Weeks? Months?
I'm torn on whether to join you and be bugged or be patient and give it more time to react.

When gold rallies, it's because capital is being re-deployed into gold that had been previously deployed elsewhere (stocks, maybe bonds). Is there a purgatory period where capital sits on the sidelines in cash while investors re-assess what to do? Maybe we're in that period. Maybe that period always occurs in the transition. Sometimes I think Budd's frustration is really an expectation of immediate response.This might be why HB recommended not looking at the portfolio frequently, and maybe no less than annually.

This is the first time I have experienced an inflationary period as a PP investor, so I don't have the benefit of first hand experience. I'm watching it closely too. Gold rallied like hell in 2008-2011 which I would have thought was a deflationary environment. Plus the US Dollar index rallied at that time too, which should be an inverse indicator to gold really.

I don't yet know what to say. There must be some kind of way out of here, said the Joker to the Thief.
Last edited by glennds on Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:42 am

glennds wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:33 am

Kbg wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:15 am

It is...one thing that's bugging me though. I monitor short term asset correlations pretty closely and gold is not going the direction we would like it to.



Not yet at least. Have you (or anyone) looked at historical data on gold's responsiveness to changing economic conditions? Weeks? Months?
I'm torn on whether to join you and be bugged or be patient and give it more time to react.

When gold rallies, it's because capital is being re-deployed into gold that had been previously deployed elsewhere (stocks, maybe bonds). Is there a purgatory period where capital sits on the sidelines in cash while investors re-assess what to do? Maybe we're in that period.

This is the first time I have experienced an inflationary period as a PP investor, so I don't have the benefit of first hand experience. I'm watching it closely too. Gold rallied like hell in 2008-2011 which I would have thought was a deflationary environment.

There must be some kind of way out of here, said the Joker to the Thief.


Which version is your preference? Hendrix or Dylan?

And, your first paragraph reflects what was in my mind earlier today. What is the lag time between conditions and when gold reacts?
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by glennds » Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:45 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:42 am


Which version is your preference? Hendrix or Dylan?
Vinny that's like asking which is my preference, my son or my daughter? Couldn't live without either.
Two geniuses.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:36 pm

glennds wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:45 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:42 am



Which version is your preference? Hendrix or Dylan?



Vinny that's like asking which is my preference, my son or my daughter? Couldn't live without either.
Two geniuses.


Easy for me. Dylan wrote great songs that were done quite well by others. However, his voice was bad to start with and has progressed to atrocious.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Wed Jun 15, 2022 4:44 pm

I don’t have any references at hand, but there are some good academic studies on gold. Stay away from studies from purveyors of gold however.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:31 pm

Gold explodes when people lose confidence, especially in the currency. Apparently that hasn’t happened yet, this time.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:35 pm

Uganda says exploration results show it has 31 million tonnes of gold ore
https://www.mining.com/web/uganda-says- ... -gold-ore/
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
AP African American Studies course rejected by Florida to be revised, College Board says
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:05 am

I guess we don’t need to find that gold-laden asteroid after all.
Then again, all this gold in Uganda will probably go straight to China.
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
AP African American Studies course rejected by Florida to be revised, College Board says
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