The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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notsheigetz
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by notsheigetz » Fri May 17, 2013 3:48 pm

MediumTex wrote: The PP is supposed to be about peace of mind.
Well, at least when I was in stocks I only had to worry about stocks. Now I have 4 things to worry about.

(Just joking, but there is some truth to it. Before I started the PP a few years ago I didn't give a rat's ass about the price of gold or how interest rates affected the value of long term treasury bonds).
Last edited by notsheigetz on Fri May 17, 2013 4:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise » Fri May 17, 2013 8:55 pm

Image

"GOOOOLLLLD!!!"
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon May 20, 2013 11:24 am

WTF...GLD up 2.5% this morning!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon May 20, 2013 11:32 am

CEF is up over 4.5% as I type this, and it was down over 1% earlier. Talk about volatility!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by murphy_p_t » Mon May 20, 2013 11:38 am

is the bottom in?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon May 20, 2013 11:48 am

murphy_p_t wrote: is the bottom in?
who knows...short-covering perhaps. GLD has relinquished .50% in the last few minutes. Let's see how the day unwinds.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by MediumTex » Mon May 20, 2013 2:55 pm

Tracking the price of gold minute to minute is not a useful thing to do, IMHO.  The declines will hurt more than the increases, and the net effect will just be rattled nerves.

I, of course, learned this lesson the hard way, but I'm glad I was able to move on to other less stressful activities.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by murphy_p_t » Mon May 20, 2013 3:20 pm

MT...its a lot more fun than baseball stats
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Reub » Mon May 20, 2013 3:22 pm

GTU up 5.60% today! As Cramer would say..."It's better than a stick in the eye!"
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dragoncar » Mon May 20, 2013 6:01 pm

Reub wrote: GTU up 5.60% today! As Cramer would say..."It's better than a stick in the eye!"
Doh I was just about to buy more but the funds were in transit.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by MediumTex » Wed May 22, 2013 12:07 am

dragoncar wrote:
Reub wrote: GTU up 5.60% today! As Cramer would say..."It's better than a stick in the eye!"
Doh I was just about to buy more but the funds were in transit.
Are those the ones you lost in the boating accident?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dragoncar » Wed May 22, 2013 7:46 am

MediumTex wrote:
dragoncar wrote:
Reub wrote: GTU up 5.60% today! As Cramer would say..."It's better than a stick in the eye!"
Doh I was just about to buy more but the funds were in transit.
Are those the ones you lost in the boating accident?
Sadly I'm missing the joke.  Luckily (?) I still got gut at a discount today.  I guess it doesn't matter much in the long run, but I'd rather buy at a discount than a premium!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Xan » Wed May 22, 2013 8:14 am

Whenever you mention that you hold gold in a public forum, it's best to also mention that you lost it in an unfortunate boating accident.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by annieB » Wed May 22, 2013 8:37 am

Now that is a great way to put it.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed May 22, 2013 10:00 am

Xan wrote: Whenever you mention that you hold gold in a public forum, it's best to also mention that you lost it in an unfortunate boating accident.
Yes, it's amazing how negatively that affects one's boating skills.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by annieB » Wed Jun 26, 2013 9:14 am

"Gold is insurance".

Shut up!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by doodle » Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:44 pm

Is it possible for a bull market like gold to just fizzle like this without a blow off parabolic run? Are there instances when bull markets just fade away like this, or do people think we have already seen the insanity? There were certainly a lot of commercials on TV....dont see those much anymore
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by AdamA » Wed Jun 26, 2013 1:14 pm

doodle wrote: Is it possible for a bull market like gold to just fizzle like this without a blow off parabolic run? Are there instances when bull markets just fade away like this, or do people think we have already seen the insanity? There were certainly a lot of commercials on TV....dont see those much anymore
It's hard to say.

If you look at the gold bull market of the 1970's, you'll see that there was a 25-30% pullback in 1975/76 before it shot through the roof in 1977-79. 
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by doodle » Wed Jun 26, 2013 1:22 pm

AdamA wrote:
doodle wrote: Is it possible for a bull market like gold to just fizzle like this without a blow off parabolic run? Are there instances when bull markets just fade away like this, or do people think we have already seen the insanity? There were certainly a lot of commercials on TV....dont see those much anymore
It's hard to say.

If you look at the gold bull market of the 1970's, you'll see that there was a 25-30% pullback in 1975/76 before it shot through the roof in 1977-79. 

Right. There was a blow-off top. The question is whether there has been in recent history (the last 100 years) a major bull market without a blowoff top where everyone and their brother was jumping in.
All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. - Blaise Pascal
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Jun 26, 2013 2:05 pm

doodle wrote:
AdamA wrote:
doodle wrote: Is it possible for a bull market like gold to just fizzle like this without a blow off parabolic run? Are there instances when bull markets just fade away like this, or do people think we have already seen the insanity? There were certainly a lot of commercials on TV....dont see those much anymore
It's hard to say.

If you look at the gold bull market of the 1970's, you'll see that there was a 25-30% pullback in 1975/76 before it shot through the roof in 1977-79. 

Right. There was a blow-off top. The question is whether there has been in recent history (the last 100 years) a major bull market without a blowoff top where everyone and their brother was jumping in.
The top-to-bottom drop in 2008 was about 30% too, but as we now know that wasn't the end of the bull market.

To answer your original question, I have seen exactly zero indications of mass public participation in gold buying this time around. And if this was the end of the bull market, it would be the first time in my knowledge that a bull market in a major asset has ended without mass public participation.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by murphy_p_t » Thu Jun 27, 2013 1:06 pm

will gold remain above $1,000?  (just sliced thru $1,200)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Jun 27, 2013 1:43 pm

murphy_p_t wrote: will gold remain above $1,000?  (just sliced thru $1,200)
If I had to guess, I would say "yes", just based on my current nausea level, but who knows?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise » Thu Jun 27, 2013 1:48 pm

GLD assets are now about half of where they were at their peak in 2011! That decline includes not only the drop in gold's price, but also $18.2 billion in net outflows YTD.

From what I've seen, ETFs usually experience net inflows when their share price is climbing and net outflows when their share price is falling--i.e., a lot of people out there buy high and sell low. The recent outflows from GLD are no exception.

Over time, this counterproductive herd behavior is simply a transfer of wealth from the fair-weather investors to the ones who stay the course by rebalancing mechanically or by continuing to buy shares at regular intervals (dollar cost averaging).
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Jun 27, 2013 8:28 pm

To what degree is the price of gold manipulated? Am I naive in believing in a free market? Many articles posit that the recent decline in gold has been manufactured by the fed to serve some purpose. Does the US want to return Germany's gold reserves at the lowest possible price? Interested to hear other's thoughts on the subject.

Is it possible that I am a "gold bug" in the making? I don't own a tin hat nor do I have a bunker in the back yard  :)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by MediumTex » Fri Jun 28, 2013 9:46 am

buddtholomew wrote: To what degree is the price of gold manipulated? Am I naive in believing in a free market? Many articles posit that the recent decline in gold has been manufactured by the fed to serve some purpose. Does the US want to return Germany's gold reserves at the lowest possible price? Interested to hear other's thoughts on the subject.

Is it possible that I am a "gold bug" in the making? I don't own a tin hat nor do I have a bunker in the back yard  :)
I would say that if the price of gold is manipulated in order to keep it down, the manipulators have failed miserably over the last 12 years.
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