The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:40 am

Nice to see gold at 1479.

Stocks were supposed to get a big boost from the latest trade & tariff talk. Now flat.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:02 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:40 am
Nice to see gold at 1479.

Stocks were supposed to get a big boost from the latest trade & tariff talk. Now flat.

I think there is a slowly growing sense that the stock market is overpriced.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:21 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:40 am
Nice to see gold at 1479.

Stocks were supposed to get a big boost from the latest trade & tariff talk. Now flat.
buy on the rumor sell on the news
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:32 pm

Hey now, gold is over $1,600/oz.

Gotta love the Everything Bubble 8)
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:11 pm

Indeed.
These are the good times.
— Willing, ‘The Mandibles’
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:03 am

sophie wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:56 am
from dualstow's signature: Gold has passed 1645/oz

Thought this was worth recording permanently because...Geez. What is going on with gold? Is this maybe about the coronavirus? Then again...who knows. It's all crowdspeak.
On CNBC, it was noted that even as people continue to pour money into the market (Stock Scream thread has an article about Mom and Pop investors excited by fee-free trading), there is also money going into classic safe havens. Hence the falling yields and rise in the price of gold. Why are they also going into safe havens? Supposedly a lot of it *is* corona. Some think that the market is finally ready to tank because corona is eating into profits: airline companies, internationally sold beverages, lots of things.

Others think that this will be wrapped up by May- that the virus will be contained, things will go back to normal, and in the rear view mirror, this will look like a buying opportunity. 🤷‍♂️
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:46 am

dualstow wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:03 am
sophie wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:56 am
from dualstow's signature: Gold has passed 1645/oz

Thought this was worth recording permanently because...Geez. What is going on with gold? Is this maybe about the coronavirus? Then again...who knows. It's all crowdspeak.
On CNBC, it was noted that even as people continue to pour money into the market (Stock Scream thread has an article about Mom and Pop investors excited by fee-free trading), there is also money going into classic safe havens. Hence the falling yields and rise in the price of gold. Why are they also going into safe havens? Supposedly a lot of it *is* corona. Some think that the market is finally ready to tank because corona is eating into profits: airline companies, internationally sold beverages, lots of things.

Others think that this will be wrapped up by May- that the virus will be contained, things will go back to normal, and in the rear view mirror, this will look like a buying opportunity. 🤷‍♂️
Or a selling opportunity for gold.

I'm going to be selling a modest amount but not for that reason; I'm planning to buy a house this summer and am raising cash.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:36 pm

Yes O0

I'm close to selling some paper gold at breakeven, gold which I already replaced by buying coins months ago.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:41 am

Today is a shining example of the calming effect of the PP. Gold and bonds more than making up for the stock massacre.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by drumminj » Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:58 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:41 am
Today is a shining example of the calming effect of the PP. Gold and bonds more than making up for the stock massacre.
I'm a little ashamed to say I get a bit excited on days like today, so maybe not so "calming". Happy to have days like this which make up for the tracking error against stocks when they're humming along to new highs every day.

(a lot of my future compensation is stock-based, so there's some sadness inside too as I think about that)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:59 pm

Interesting that gold is getting crushed back down but bonds are holding.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:50 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:59 pm
Interesting that gold is getting crushed back down but bonds are holding.
Yes, gold is getting "crushed back down" to being up only $16 on the day. Woe is me!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:56 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:50 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:59 pm
Interesting that gold is getting crushed back down but bonds are holding.
Yes, gold is getting "crushed back down" to being up only $16 on the day. Woe is me!
Crushed was a hard word, but when you consider that stocks held their losses, bonds held their gains, and gold did this in the afternoon, it is definitely an odd man out for some reason.

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:23 pm

Gold has always been the most volatile component in the PP, by far. And it marches to its own drumbeat. Same with silver. Bonds and precious metals were up today and helped to offset the stock market's trip to the woodshed. Life is good.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise » Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:14 pm

If Budd were still here, he would be complaining that gold and bonds "failed to buoy the PP as advertised" since they merely softened the blow from stocks instead of more than offsetting the losses ;D
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:57 pm

LOL. Budd was one of those ppl who really needed to be in just cash or short term bonds.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:28 pm

Let me channel Budd here, and say, what the hell? I mean, sure it is still technically up for the past few days, but is this the old BS of people selling gold to fund their margin calls?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:20 am

4 days and no gold scream room discussion, interesting.

tech, I was wondering what your thoughts are over the past 2-3 days where gold has languished. It was upsetting to me this morning to see it down again, but then I ran a 3 month comparison and felt better.

I know there is no 1:1 guaranteed inverse correlation, but it did start out really strongly when the markets tanked.

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:32 am

Personally, I think it's because the market is sniffing deflation... and they are going back to the old trusty deflation handbook. Long bonds are *the* asset right now and nothing else matters. If the virus starts to take hold in the U.S. I expect to see gold react a bit more. I also think it will react more if/when the Fed announces rate cuts or QE. But I'm not surprised to see it consolidating right now in the short term while bonds are running like they stole something. From a long term perspective, it's probably better for it to consolidate and digest its recent gains a bit. If it kept screaming higher like bonds are it would also put gold at risk of a blowoff top.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Jack Jones » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:39 am

Screen Shot 2020-02-28 at 10.38.04 AM.png
Screen Shot 2020-02-28 at 10.38.04 AM.png (10.12 KiB) Viewed 7184 times
A bit light on Gold at the moment. Considering doing my IRA contributions early (I usually wait until the last minute) to get back in range.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:43 am

I think we must be in the end times.
I say that because I sold a chunk yesterday just before today's plunge.
This is against all previous history, which would predict that it would soar after I sold.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:44 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:20 am
I was wondering what your thoughts are over the past 2-3 days where gold has languished.
Is is possible that gold is loosing because the investors want to free up cash to buy stocks, which can stop plummeting any moment if the fear goes away?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:44 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:44 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:20 am
I was wondering what your thoughts are over the past 2-3 days where gold has languished.
Is is possible that gold is loosing because the investors want to free up cash to buy stocks, which can stop plummeting any moment if the fear goes away?
I don't think that's the explanation. I think speculators are selling to meet margin calls in the stock market, but of course now there are also margin calls in the gold market.

But once everything settles out I think gold will resume its uptrend.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:39 am

Wow. If you could only predict this stuff.

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:24 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:39 am
Wow. If you could only predict this stuff.

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I can predict it.
It will fluctuate!
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