The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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flyingpylon
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by flyingpylon » Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:30 am

Tyler addresses gold as a diversifier in his latest outstanding post:

THREE SECRET INGREDIENTS OF THE MOST EFFICIENT PORTFOLIOS

https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/12/16/ ... ortfolios/
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Xan
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Xan » Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:38 am

flyingpylon wrote:
Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:30 am
Tyler addresses gold as a diversifier in his latest outstanding post:

THREE SECRET INGREDIENTS OF THE MOST EFFICIENT PORTFOLIOS

https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/12/16/ ... ortfolios/
Phenomenal!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:43 am

Another excellent article by Tyler
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:51 am

flyingpylon wrote:
Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:30 am
Tyler addresses gold as a diversifier in his latest outstanding post:

THREE SECRET INGREDIENTS OF THE MOST EFFICIENT PORTFOLIOS

https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/12/16/ ... ortfolios/
Yeah, thank you for that!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:52 am

Biggest takeaway for the discussion that happens here with mj and budd:

1) An asset is a critical component in many of the most desirable portfolios.
2) The same asset is disastrously undesirable when studied only in isolation.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:56 am

A fantastic article, Tyler. Thank you!
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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:08 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:52 am
Biggest takeaway for the discussion that happens here with mj and budd:

1) An asset is a critical component in many of the most desirable portfolios.
2) The same asset is disastrously undesirable when studied only in isolation.
Except I don’t look at it in isolation ..I look at some assets as a dead weight on the most common horse , equities in some environments..there are times being overly interest rate sensitive is not a great idea ….you don’t have to be heavy equities but you don’t need to bet the ranch on rates either.

I have an allocation to equites in between the pp and the butterfly , however the pp is weighted for lower rates and lower inflation , i am weighted for higher inflation and rates going higher
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Tyler
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tyler » Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:29 pm

Thanks, everyone!

Yeah, the section on gold is an important one for anyone considering adding some to their own portfolio. Occupying the very best portfolios while also being the single worst investing option by itself presents a unique challenge for investors who like to track their portfolios closely. If you don't have the right mindset, it will drive you crazy even when it's doing its job just fine.

As I said in the article, know thyself.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by seajay » Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:51 pm

Fantastic article, thanks Tyler

In the UK both stock and gold have tracked inflation in a very volatile manner. House prices more closely so. 50/50 stock/gold considerably reduced the volatility to be more house like

Image
PV data since 1994 comparing REIT with 50/50 TSM/gold
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by boglerdude » Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:42 pm

Increasing real rates hurt gold, stock, and LTTs. Real rates can only go so low...unless they ban cash
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by seajay » Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:49 pm

boglerdude wrote:
Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:42 pm
Increasing real rates hurt gold, stock, and LTTs. Real rates can only go so low...unless they ban cash
Adding to the UK charts I posted above ... compare 'real' stock/gold 50/50 relative to a 'inflation' rate of house prices and ...
Image
it would require a +40% house prices increase coinciding with a -40% 50/50 stock/gold decline to see the progression baseline to 1.0. That's unlikely to occur over a single year, might take 7 years or 11 years ... whatever - but is something that could occur.

What might drive that? Well high inflation, rising wages, rising positive real yields, which as you say would likely hit stocks/bonds/gold. What are the prospects of such rising/high inflation and wages? Well they already seem to be flowing through the pipeline, largely a consequence of excessive QE/printing. Real rates can turn sharply positive pretty quickly, just takes a sharp decline in inflation after rates had already been raised to modest/high levels.

As ever all-a-guess, and a Clubber Lang 'pain' prediction, but one that could see houses and cash (short dated treasuries that roll into higher yields) doing better than stocks/bonds/gold.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:30 pm

Vanguard study showing the correlative relationship between inflation and various assets. Note that gold is only outdone by TIPS. Of course, gold has the volatility we're looking for though.



inflation.jpg
inflation.jpg (160.93 KiB) Viewed 3600 times
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:32 pm

Read this book on 12/15/80. Should I be re-reading it??!!!

How you can profit from gold Hardcover – January 1, 1980
by James E Sinclair

https://www.amazon.com/How-you-can-prof ... l_huc_item
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:25 pm

ahem
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:02 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:25 pm
ahem
exactly
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by murphy_p_t » Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:19 pm

Sbsw for some juice
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:39 pm

Boo Yah. Does anyone know what happened at 1:30 Eastern? They all just took off.

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:42 pm

A mention of a potential attack from Russia in Ukraine and for US citizens to leave the region.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:16 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:42 pm
A mention of a potential attack from Russia in Ukraine and for US citizens to leave the region.
Should we sell before Putin backs off. O0 J/K, i’m all in.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by murphy_p_t » Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:22 pm

If you can stand the volatility...

In my opinion, this is an optimal time to sell gold and buy your favorite precious metal mining companies with the proceeds.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by murphy_p_t » Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:38 pm

Or better yet, sell 50% of s&p and go into precious metal miners with the proceeds
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:48 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:38 pm
Or better yet, sell 50% of s&p and go into precious metal miners with the proceeds
Unless it's a retirement account, the tax repercussions of a move like this are huge. I don't invest this way.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppnewbie » Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:00 pm

Apmex has had some great deals and I have not pulled the trigger. I'm kicking myself a bit on the price move today.
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Smith1776
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:28 pm

Why are chinese gold ingots shaped the way they are? (See avatar.)
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:39 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:28 pm
Why are chinese gold ingots shaped the way they are? (See avatar.)
Well my young friend, I think it was just for aesthetic reasons. From the intro to ‘Empire of Silver’ (hat tip to Kriegs), pp3-4:
Generally speaking, from the Han to the Ming dynasty, silver sycee gradually developed from a round cake form into an elongated forum, and then contracted in the middle for the yuanbao form. In numismatic terms, this development made the currency more attractive, but in practical use it was an inconvenient and a retrograde step.
Maybe they just loved cakes O0

More here- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sycee
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