The GOLD scream room

[buddtholomew]

Hi Budd. Nice to see you back.

Thank you!!

[pmward]

Well how about that? New gold all-time highs.I wasn't planning to log back in here until after the election was over and the political debates died down. Alas, I felt like there is no better place to celebrate the new all-time highs than here. Can we actually clear that psychological 2k level???

[Ad Orientem]

Well how about that? New gold all-time highs.I wasn't planning to log back in here until after the election was over and the political debates died down. Alas, I felt like there is no better place to celebrate the new all-time highs than here. Can we actually clear that psychological 2k level???

Pure speculation here... but in the near term I expect gold to continue to move up before pausing for consolidation around the $2k mark. In the intermediate term I I am bullish on gold and expect it to continue to outperform as long as the government is running insane deficits, suppressing interest rates in the bond market, printing money like water and using much of that newly printed money to buy its own bonds. In the near term silver will likely outperform gold due to the still wide, but narrowing, gap in the silver gold price ratio as well as declining production coupled with increased industrial demand. Long term, silver prices will overshoot (it's one of the constants of history) and then correct downward.

[pmward]

Well how about that? New gold all-time highs.I wasn't planning to log back in here until after the election was over and the political debates died down. Alas, I felt like there is no better place to celebrate the new all-time highs than here. Can we actually clear that psychological 2k level???

Pure speculation here... but in the near term I expect gold to continue to move up before pausing for consolidation around the $2k mark. In the intermediate term I I am bullish on gold and expect it to continue to outperform as long as the government is running insane deficits, suppressing interest rates in the bond market, printing money like water and using much of that newly printed money to buy its own bonds. In the near term silver will likely outperform gold due to the still wide, but narrowing, gap in the silver gold price ratio as well as declining production coupled with increased industrial demand. Long term, silver prices will overshoot (it's one of the constants of history) and then correct downward.

In trying to look at all angles, and looking at risks to gold, there is one thing I worry about... that being the rolloff in Fed liquidity at a time when the treasury is issuing more debt. The Fed provided liquidity in advance, but now it could almost function as a tightening of liquidity where they are providing less and less liquidity while the treasury is issuing more and more debt. To keep the ship afloat, especially with new stimulus on the way (and more debt along with it) the Fed will need to step up and do their part. If they don't and keep reducing liquidity into that it could cause a liquidity event which definitely could impact metals negatively by proxy of a less negative real yield on treasuries. I think this week is quite pivotal with a Fed meeting and fiscal stimulus continuation deadlines all looming. There's a lot of kindling there that could bring out the metals bulls or bears.

If these things all go smoothly, I do think gold will continue it's recent pattern of consolidating for a few months, then breaking out, then consolidating, then breaking out. I wouldn't be surprised either to see a consolidation or a pullback start anytime between now and 2k. It's probably not a bad time to rebalance if someone is over a rebalancing band. SLV is a bit harder to judge, as it relies also on industry. But copper has been led silver up, so that is a very promising sign on the industrial front. I wouldn't personally make any new SLV purchases at these price levels, but it is a good dip buy candidate to watch.

[Ad Orientem]

And gold up another 2% today. New nominal record of $1937/oz.

[Smith1776]

Woah. O_O

gold.png (9.54 KiB) Viewed 6445 times

[Tortoise]

EC0220A0-422A-4333-93EA-A6847884F9F2.gif (575.08 KiB) Viewed 6443 times

[Ad Orientem]

Now $1955. And silver just blew through $25/oz.

[I Shrugged]

I wish we had like buttons here.
Anyway, like like like like like like....

[Smith1776]

EC0220A0-422A-4333-93EA-A6847884F9F2.gif

Please, please, please post this in the Knuckleheads forum.

[Tortoise]

EC0220A0-422A-4333-93EA-A6847884F9F2.gif

Please, please, please post this in the Knuckleheads forum.

Done.

[Ad Orientem]

EC0220A0-422A-4333-93EA-A6847884F9F2.gif

Please, please, please post this in the Knuckleheads forum.

Done.

?

[Smith1776]

EC0220A0-422A-4333-93EA-A6847884F9F2.gif

Please, please, please post this in the Knuckleheads forum.

Done.

LOL. I love how the GIF text is the same as what the previous guy posted.

[Tortoise]

EC0220A0-422A-4333-93EA-A6847884F9F2.gif

Please, please, please post this in the Knuckleheads forum.

Done.

?

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 0#p5397560

Unfortunately, a buzzkill admin removed the displayed GIF and replaced it with a link. Typical tight-ass Knuckleheads.

[buddtholomew]

Has anyone decided to harvest some gains in Gold?
I’m well within bands but seems a reasonable time to ring the register.

I know it’s against the rules to mention such things but interested in others thought processes at this time.

With all assets performing so well and cash at optimal level already am I best served to just sit tight.

Difficult for me not to advance and protect by selling a bit to cash.

[Cortopassi]

Silver is close to hitting the 140% band for me. Gold is not close. I will rebalance if silver hits. Not early.

[dualstow]

Has anyone decided to harvest some gains in Gold?

I definitely would harvest but I'm underweight in gold if I look at (pp+pv), and I'm down to physical only.
You could say I don't have a proper pp anymore. I'm keeping all my coins unless the value gets outrageous.

But again, if I were still holding IAU or PHYS, I'm sure I'd be hitting those rebalancing bands.

[Cortopassi]

But again, if I were still holding IAU or PHYS, I'm sure I'd be hitting those rebalancing bands.

Are you sure? Everything has been going up, so I am way far away from any rebalance bands for bonds, stocks and gold, except for silver.

Here's my allocations vs. limits

[dualstow]

That’s a good point, Corto. I was looking at gold in a vacuum. I’m not sure after all.
Downgrade it to “I’d be tempted to trim.” Which I guess is what I already did very recently when I unloaded all my paper gold. I wanted to get rid of it.

[flyingpylon]

My dear wife, who pays little to no attention to anything investment related, looked up from her phone last night and asked "What's going on with gold?"

Might be an indication of... something. Y'all have been warned!

[Mark Leavy]

Has anyone decided to harvest some gains in Gold?

Much like tech stocks, I'm a bit overweight on gold right now.
This may be a mistake, but I have a hard time selling gold during a period of rising uncertainty. Gold seems like the one solid anchor of sanity in a crazy world right now. I'm going to let it ride.

[pmward]

Gold is still cheaper than both stocks and bonds relatively speaking. I don't sell my stocks or bonds the day they hit a new all-time high. I'm certainly not going to do that on gold, especially when I believe gold will be the winner out of the 3 in the 2020's. Has the popular media and robinhood traders jumped on the gold bandwagon in the last week and a half? Absolutely. But it takes more than a week and a half to form a blowoff top. Also, blowoff tops don't finish at the first all-time high in 9 years. That long of a consolidation tends to lead to much, much higher prices before a major peak. At some point gold will correct. I wouldn't be surprised to see it take a pause and consolidate and/or pullback around here before the next leg higher. But I would also be willing to bet that a year from now gold will be higher than it is today. I would also be willing to bet that a few years from now I would be willing to give my left arm to buy gold at today's prices. It's obviously not going to just go up in a straight line to that point. There will be drama, bumps, and bruises along the way. But the bottom line is gold is going higher. I don't think now is the time to sell gold before actually hitting a rebalancing band.

[dualstow]

A good time to sell is when all those boarded up "Gold for Cash" type stores open up again in droves.

You mean cash for gold?

[mathjak107]

while all that counts is how you were effected and how much money was acted on over that time frame :

gold is now beating a total market fund and the s&p 500 with dividends over the:

ytd , 1 year , 3 year , 5 year , 15 year and 20 year periods .

equities is now only a head the 10 year ...

[Libertarian666]

while all that counts is how you were effected and how much money was acted on over that time frame :

gold is now beating a total market fund and the s&p 500 with dividends over the:

ytd , 1 year , 3 year , 5 year , 15 year and 20 year periods .

equities is now only a head the 10 year ...

<bogle>Yes, but you still can't eat it!</bogle>