Gyroscopic Investing

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:15 pm

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:18 pm I wouldn’t even bother with Gold unless we see inflation. Not going to see much inflation with tariffs, a strong USD and rising rates.

With everyone thinking that, doesn't that make it a good time to buy?

No way. Much better to buy high and sell low. After all, that's what most people do.

stuper1 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:34 pm

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:15 pm

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:18 pm I wouldn’t even bother with Gold unless we see inflation. Not going to see much inflation with tariffs, a strong USD and rising rates.

With everyone thinking that, doesn't that make it a good time to buy?

No way. Much better to buy high and sell low. After all, that's what most people do.

I’ve been hearing the same story since 1300..
Gets old after a while don’t you think?
You guys buy and tell me how it goes.
I’m holding.

I'm sorry if my question sounds dumb... can someone please explain what the heck is going on with gold? Multiple currencies are falling, equities are down, dollar is up, but why is gold dropping? Is gold still working as it's supposed to in HBPP?

foglifter wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:40 pm I'm sorry if my question sounds dumb... can someone please explain what the heck is going on with gold? Multiple currencies are falling, equities are down, dollar is up, but why is gold dropping? Is gold still working as it's supposed to in HBPP?

Everyone is dumping foreign currency and running to the dollar which is spiking upward, which means the price of gold in dollars falls. Dollars buy more gold because they are stronger. A good question!

Radomski has been predicting $900 gold just around the corner for years... this time it might happen, and his extreme gold : silver is 100:1, not 80:1

Gold $890, and silver $8.90.

https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-si ... investors/

So with gold stagnant and bonds falling how has the overall PP been performing this year?

My allocation is down 2.3%

I whine about it, but I suppose that is nothing when you really think about it

Desert wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:09 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:21 pm In July of...2013(?) I said that maybe gold would go to 750 before it goes up to 2000.
I think I'll hang out to see if that comes true.
Would like to buy a little more gold soon.

I'm going to buy when dualstow buys, and not a dollar sooner.

Maybe we should run a periodic poll concerning when we are inclined to make a purchase. But now I can't see polling features. I thought we had those. Does anyone know how to do this?

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:41 pm My allocation is down 2.3%

I whine about it, but I suppose that is nothing when you really think about it

Isn't inflation running close to 3%, making the PP's real performance YTD down about 5%?

Don wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:53 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:41 pm My allocation is down 2.3%

I whine about it, but I suppose that is nothing when you really think about it

Isn't inflation running close to 3%, making the PP's real performance YTD down about 5%?

Even if it is, doesn't change what I'm going to do with my portfolio, though.

The most I would ever consider doing is when gold and silver are beaten down so badly it seems like they'll never come back, I might buy a couple LEAPS in a VP.

The good thing is, with the PP, I would have already bough these calls, and already be severely underwater. The PP has taught patience.

Desert wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:09 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:21 pm In July of...2013(?) I said that maybe gold would go to 750 before it goes up to 2000.
I think I'll hang out to see if that comes true.
Would like to buy a little more gold soon.

I'm going to buy when dualstow buys, and not a dollar sooner.

Boy am I the wrong person to follow, if history is any indication. I bought a lot of gold at 1600, though in my defense, I was still working my way up to that initial 25%. Had I gone all-in immediately, it would’ve been cheaper.

All metals rallying except...wait for it...

Au
What did you expect?

My PP is at an all time high after introducing SCV...I’ll hold Gold since backtesting proves it’s useful, but I think having international equity exposure is more beneficial.

Up $4. Not complaining.

The snapbacks on the stock market always seem to come and are almost always amazing.

I wonder what happens when that eventually fails.

Almost a given you can buy the market as close of a big down day and be up the next. Until I try.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:34 am Up $4. Not complaining.

The snapbacks on the stock market always seem to come and are almost always amazing.

I wonder what happens when that eventually fails.

Almost a given you can buy the market as close of a big down day and be up the next. Until I try.

Agree; any purchase decisions have to be a part of the overall plan else you’re swinging blindly.

I’m not ecstatic over a 0.33% gain following a 10%+ YTD loss. Whatever, I guess the portfolio works if you get the timing right since I don’t want to be at lower end of the range when/if gold goes positive.

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:12 am All metals rallying except...wait for it...

Au
What did you expect?

My PP is at an all time high after introducing SCV...I’ll hold Gold since backtesting proves it’s useful, but I think having international equity exposure is more beneficial.

I suspect that this is just a brief pause in the general bear market that PMs have been in for a number of years now. Silver in particular is in need of a modest upward correction as it has become rather cheap relative to gold from the perspective of the post 1971 avg silver to gold price ratio. Additionally silver is currently trading below its production costs (around $15-16 oz.). So yeah I think silver is flashing a buy signal for long term investors. But no, I am not looking for a big move upwards anytime soon. That said markets in the near term can be wildly irrational and there is a lot of downward pressure on PMs including heavy short selling and the move to the dollar given the latest fiat paper currency crisis. If silver were to resume its decline, I would see it as a buy.

[Edit: I misread a source on the production costs of silver mining and have struck that part of my comment. While I still think silver looks attractive on a speculative basis that part of my comment was factually erroneous. The correct cost of silver extraction for miners is in the $10.50 - $11.00 range. A/O]

Even though I probably bought some at 1800 originally, I had some luck recently and got completely out at 1330 this year. I just got back in a little at 1180.


Biggest comfort for me right now with gold is the fact the central banks own it still. I was otherwise losing the faith.

Desert wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:56 am I'm attempting to buy some GLDM today via a limit order. If the order executes, that will likely send the metal's price spiraling downwards.

Sorry dualstow, but I just couldn't wait any longer.

Hah. Please don’t be sorry! I’m looking forward to buying a few coins very soon! Whether the price goes up or down.

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:40 am
Biggest comfort for me right now with gold is the fact the central banks own it still. I was otherwise losing the faith.

Didn’t Greg Ip write something yesterday about the Depression being caused by France hoarding gold? Oh well, that was hoarding.

Yeah, people hoard gold and bitcoin which makes them bad currencies but good assets. Trade shouldnt be restricted just because people dont have paper to write IOUs. Paper is supposed to be worthless.

Central Banks can use gold to settle huge transactions, but for citizens it's antiquated. Unless (until?) there's social chaos leading to monetary chaos.

Go gold! :-) Up today 1.86% as of now.

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:31 am Go gold! :-) Up today 1.86% as of now.

I thought it would happen yesterday.
Russia started buying a lot of gold and getting rid of American LTTs.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:34 am

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:31 am Go gold! :-) Up today 1.86% as of now.

You all missed the bottom!

Actually I nailed it.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9655&start=12

Oh, c'mon. Please don't try to associate any world events to gold anymore. Haven't we learned?

Wake me up when we pass $1400.

The bottom. Hah. We'll see.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:15 pm

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:33 pm

MangoMan wrote: ↑Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:34 am

You all missed the bottom!

Actually I nailed it.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9655&start=12

Bravo. Where can I subscribe to your newsletter?

My personal and magnanimous generosity to the board. I do have this bridge for sell if you are interested however.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:42 pm Oh, c'mon. Please don't try to associate any world events to gold anymore. Haven't we learned?

Cortopassi is correct. The only reliable indicator of movement in the price of gold is when I buy some. At that point it is assured of going down. Should have kept you all up to date on my purchases (thankfully they are mostly behind us).

But seriously, Harry Browne once talked about 9/11 in one of his podcasts (which I had printed out and was reading in my easy chair) and he was not at all surprised that the price of gold didn't move much in response to that event. His reasoning was that it had no immediate discernible effect on the strength of the USD.