Gyroscopic Investing

Whenever you mention that you hold gold in a public forum, it's best to also mention that you lost it in an unfortunate boating accident.

Now that is a great way to put it.

Xan wrote: Whenever you mention that you hold gold in a public forum, it's best to also mention that you lost it in an unfortunate boating accident.

Yes, it's amazing how negatively that affects one's boating skills.

"Gold is insurance".

Shut up!

Is it possible for a bull market like gold to just fizzle like this without a blow off parabolic run? Are there instances when bull markets just fade away like this, or do people think we have already seen the insanity? There were certainly a lot of commercials on TV....dont see those much anymore

doodle wrote: Is it possible for a bull market like gold to just fizzle like this without a blow off parabolic run? Are there instances when bull markets just fade away like this, or do people think we have already seen the insanity? There were certainly a lot of commercials on TV....dont see those much anymore

It's hard to say.

If you look at the gold bull market of the 1970's, you'll see that there was a 25-30% pullback in 1975/76 before it shot through the roof in 1977-79. 

AdamA wrote:

doodle wrote: Is it possible for a bull market like gold to just fizzle like this without a blow off parabolic run? Are there instances when bull markets just fade away like this, or do people think we have already seen the insanity? There were certainly a lot of commercials on TV....dont see those much anymore

It's hard to say.

If you look at the gold bull market of the 1970's, you'll see that there was a 25-30% pullback in 1975/76 before it shot through the roof in 1977-79. 

Right. There was a blow-off top. The question is whether there has been in recent history (the last 100 years) a major bull market without a blowoff top where everyone and their brother was jumping in.

doodle wrote:

AdamA wrote:

doodle wrote: Is it possible for a bull market like gold to just fizzle like this without a blow off parabolic run? Are there instances when bull markets just fade away like this, or do people think we have already seen the insanity? There were certainly a lot of commercials on TV....dont see those much anymore

It's hard to say.

If you look at the gold bull market of the 1970's, you'll see that there was a 25-30% pullback in 1975/76 before it shot through the roof in 1977-79. 

Right. There was a blow-off top. The question is whether there has been in recent history (the last 100 years) a major bull market without a blowoff top where everyone and their brother was jumping in.

The top-to-bottom drop in 2008 was about 30% too, but as we now know that wasn't the end of the bull market.

To answer your original question, I have seen exactly zero indications of mass public participation in gold buying this time around. And if this was the end of the bull market, it would be the first time in my knowledge that a bull market in a major asset has ended without mass public participation.

will gold remain above $1,000?  (just sliced thru $1,200)

murphy_p_t wrote: will gold remain above $1,000?  (just sliced thru $1,200)

If I had to guess, I would say "yes", just based on my current nausea level, but who knows?

GLD assets are now about half of where they were at their peak in 2011! That decline includes not only the drop in gold's price, but also $18.2 billion in net outflows YTD.

From what I've seen, ETFs usually experience net inflows when their share price is climbing and net outflows when their share price is falling--i.e., a lot of people out there buy high and sell low. The recent outflows from GLD are no exception.

Over time, this counterproductive herd behavior is simply a transfer of wealth from the fair-weather investors to the ones who stay the course by rebalancing mechanically or by continuing to buy shares at regular intervals (dollar cost averaging).

To what degree is the price of gold manipulated? Am I naive in believing in a free market? Many articles posit that the recent decline in gold has been manufactured by the fed to serve some purpose. Does the US want to return Germany's gold reserves at the lowest possible price? Interested to hear other's thoughts on the subject.

Is it possible that I am a "gold bug" in the making? I don't own a tin hat nor do I have a bunker in the back yard 

buddtholomew wrote: To what degree is the price of gold manipulated? Am I naive in believing in a free market? Many articles posit that the recent decline in gold has been manufactured by the fed to serve some purpose. Does the US want to return Germany's gold reserves at the lowest possible price? Interested to hear other's thoughts on the subject.

Is it possible that I am a "gold bug" in the making? I don't own a tin hat nor do I have a bunker in the back yard 

I would say that if the price of gold is manipulated in order to keep it down, the manipulators have failed miserably over the last 12 years.

MediumTex wrote:

buddtholomew wrote: To what degree is the price of gold manipulated? Am I naive in believing in a free market? Many articles posit that the recent decline in gold has been manufactured by the fed to serve some purpose. Does the US want to return Germany's gold reserves at the lowest possible price? Interested to hear other's thoughts on the subject.

Is it possible that I am a "gold bug" in the making? I don't own a tin hat nor do I have a bunker in the back yard 

I would say that if the price of gold is manipulated in order to keep it down, the manipulators have failed miserably over the last 12 years.

My guess is that the manipulation has been to make the price fluctuate violently so as to scare people off from buying and/or shake out the weak hands who have already bought.

MediumTex wrote:

buddtholomew wrote: To what degree is the price of gold manipulated? Am I naive in believing in a free market? Many articles posit that the recent decline in gold has been manufactured by the fed to serve some purpose. Does the US want to return Germany's gold reserves at the lowest possible price? Interested to hear other's thoughts on the subject.

Is it possible that I am a "gold bug" in the making? I don't own a tin hat nor do I have a bunker in the back yard 

I would say that if the price of gold is manipulated in order to keep it down, the manipulators have failed miserably over the last 12 years.

I'm not referring to the last 12 years, but rather recent economic events whereby fed's policy would benefit from a drop in gold prices.

buddtholomew wrote:

MediumTex wrote:

buddtholomew wrote: To what degree is the price of gold manipulated? Am I naive in believing in a free market? Many articles posit that the recent decline in gold has been manufactured by the fed to serve some purpose. Does the US want to return Germany's gold reserves at the lowest possible price? Interested to hear other's thoughts on the subject.

Is it possible that I am a "gold bug" in the making? I don't own a tin hat nor do I have a bunker in the back yard 

I would say that if the price of gold is manipulated in order to keep it down, the manipulators have failed miserably over the last 12 years.

I'm not referring to the last 12 years, but rather recent economic events whereby fed's policy would benefit from a drop in gold prices.

But wouldn't the Fed's QE policies have also been aided by gold drops in 2009, 2010 and 2011?

If the fed isn't manipulating the gold market, it would the only market they aren't manipulating. I guess that is possible but it doesn't seem very likely.

Has anyone else seen this?
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 1&t=115027

dualstow wrote: Has anyone else seen this?
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 1&t=115027

Ok, I read it. So?

they all seem to be promoting bail at the "bottom"/sell now,  funny i thought that was contrary to boglehead thinking and sound investment strategy

l82start wrote: they all seem to be promoting bail at the "bottom"/sell now,  funny i thought that was contrary to boglehead thinking and sound investment strategy

But most of those guys hated gold the whole time (or at least said they did).

Did that guy put all of his money into gold?

MediumTex wrote:

l82start wrote: they all seem to be promoting bail at the "bottom"/sell now,  funny i thought that was contrary to boglehead thinking and sound investment strategy

But most of those guys hated gold the whole time (or at least said they did).

maybe they hate gold so much they are willing to give contrary advice just to see a gold buyer fail, so they can say "I Told You So"

Most participants on that board are extremely illogical when it comes to gold. As we know, the evidence shows that it reduces variance in the portfolio while not hurting CAGR. But they have a visceral hate for gold nonetheless, which is another piece of evidence for the odd psychology of investing even among many of those who claim to be guided by reason.

Libertarian666 wrote: Most participants on that board are extremely illogical when it comes to gold. As we know, the evidence shows that it reduces variance in the portfolio while not hurting CAGR. But they have a visceral hate for gold nonetheless, which is another piece of evidence for the odd psychology of investing even among many of those who claim to be guided by reason.

You don't have to love gold to recognize its uses as a tool within a diversified portfolio.

When I look at my toolbox I don't think in terms of being "pro-hammer" or "anti-hammer."  The hammer is just there when I need a hammer.