The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2453
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:45 am

Heh.
Attachments
spot.png
spot.png (45.78 KiB) Viewed 435 times
All of humanity’s problems with coronavirus stem from a man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.
- Blasé Kriegsspiel
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1099
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:16 am

l82start wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:34 am
technovelist wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:18 am
Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:16 am
Holy smokes. Everything is popping (except bonds). Did somebody announce a cure for the bug overnight and I missed it?
No, the Fed announcement did it.
My understanding is that they are buying everything in the world with freshly printed money.
I guess we're going to find out if MMT is correct.
(My answer: no).
agreed MMT is not going to prove correct, but my hunch is it will take a fair amount of time and a more than a few MMT actions to be proven so.. MR on the other hand (MMT without the statist wishful utopian fantasy) still seems like a sound explanation of how money works nowadays, and may end up being a useful tool..
This right here! The theory behind MMT is valid. The problems can come with assumptions of what can be done to implement it in practice (taking the theory and using it to justify particular political agendas that otherwise would be seen as wasteful). People have this tendency to be binary all or nothing. We are not good at finding balance in anything. And l also agree, that for the first few years MMT will feel amazing. Growth will finally return (S&P 500 profits in aggregate peaked in 2012), inflation will pick up a bit (but not too much... at first), wage growth will kick in, us normal people will start to actually make some progress for the first time in over a decade. It will feel amazing. And there is exactly where the danger lies. If some feels amazing, politicians will assume more is better. Eventually they will test and find where that upper boundary is. But it will not be something imminent that happens in the next couple years. These are long term things.
User avatar
Xan
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 2505
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:51 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Xan » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:28 am

l82start wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:34 am
agreed MMT is not going to prove correct, but my hunch is it will take a fair amount of time and a more than a few MMT actions to be proven so.. MR on the other hand (MMT without the statist wishful utopian fantasy) still seems like a sound explanation of how money works nowadays, and may end up being a useful tool..
Agreed also.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10265
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:35 pm

technovelist wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:15 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:32 am
Where the heck is the price at? Different sites are showing anywhere from 1580 something to 1680 something?!
According to Kitco, the range today has been from 1556 to 1689, and we're now at 1589, up $38.

I wouldn't want to be a bullion dealer today.
I’m not looking forward to the day I’ll need to sell coins, wondering if the dealer’s quote is closer to Yahoo or the WSJ or Kitco at the moment. “Hi, dealer, never mind. I’ll call you back in 5 five minutes.”

Ochotona mentioned being able to buy with a limit order, just like with stocks.
I don’t imagine you can sell that way, though. I guess you just have to wait for a sustained upward trend.
Tech, did you plotz over it when you had your large, recent sale?
Statue in the square /Meant so much when it first stood
People come from far and near/ To bless them if, bless them if it would
Strange times are here
User avatar
technovelist
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5573
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:20 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by technovelist » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:07 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:35 pm
technovelist wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:15 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:32 am
Where the heck is the price at? Different sites are showing anywhere from 1580 something to 1680 something?!
According to Kitco, the range today has been from 1556 to 1689, and we're now at 1589, up $38.

I wouldn't want to be a bullion dealer today.
I’m not looking forward to the day I’ll need to sell coins, wondering if the dealer’s quote is closer to Yahoo or the WSJ or Kitco at the moment. “Hi, dealer, never mind. I’ll call you back in 5 five minutes.”

Ochotona mentioned being able to buy with a limit order, just like with stocks.
I don’t imagine you can sell that way, though. I guess you just have to wait for a sustained upward trend.
Tech, did you plotz over it when you had your large, recent sale?
That was a weird transaction because I had to ask for a quote due to what seemed like high volatility then. Of course that was nothing compared to right now.

I did okay but I would have done better if they had sent me the quote in a timely manner.

But I'm not complaining; I wouldn't want to be a bullion dealer in this environment.

As for your concern, I wouldn't worry too much. Either the volatility will calm down or we are in the end times for the dollar.

In either case, I don't think the bogleheads will be dissing the PP after this insane situation.
User avatar
I Shrugged
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 651
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:11 pm

I can’t foresee any good reason to sell gold in the PP. Say it goes up to 40% of your PP. You really want to rebalance out? I don’t think I could.
User avatar
Ugly_Bird
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 104
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 8:06 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:21 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:11 pm
I can’t foresee any good reason to sell gold in the PP. Say it goes up to 40% of your PP. You really want to rebalance out? I don’t think I could.
This is what the book says. Actually up to 35%. :-)
User avatar
I Shrugged
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 651
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:28 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:21 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:11 pm
I can’t foresee any good reason to sell gold in the PP. Say it goes up to 40% of your PP. You really want to rebalance out? I don’t think I could.
This is what the book says. Actually up to 35%. :-)
You’re right but I just can’t see myself selling even at 50%. Or any level. I’d be more likely to just pull the excess Gold “off the “table” to restore my balance. I’m not trying to advocate this for anyone else though.
User avatar
technovelist
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5573
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:20 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by technovelist » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:32 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:28 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:21 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:11 pm
I can’t foresee any good reason to sell gold in the PP. Say it goes up to 40% of your PP. You really want to rebalance out? I don’t think I could.
This is what the book says. Actually up to 35%. :-)
You’re right but I just can’t see myself selling even at 50%. Or any level. I’d be more likely to just pull the excess Gold “off the “table” to restore my balance. I’m not trying to advocate this for anyone else though.
Yes, taking some winnings off the table could be an excellent strategy.
This is sort of similar to my suggestion not to rebalance out of gold twice in a row.
Of course that wouldn't have been optimal in the 1970's but at least you won't end up flushing money down the drain of a dying economic system.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10265
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:41 pm

technovelist wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:07 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:35 pm
technovelist wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:15 am
..
I wouldn't want to be a bullion dealer today.
I’m not looking forward to the day I’ll need to sell coins, wondering if the dealer’s quote is closer to Yahoo or the WSJ or Kitco at the moment. “Hi, dealer, never mind. I’ll call you back in 5 five minutes.”

Ochotona mentioned being able to buy with a limit order, just like with stocks.
I don’t imagine you can sell that way, though. I guess you just have to wait for a sustained upward trend.
Tech, did you plotz over it when you had your large, recent sale?
That was a weird transaction because I had to ask for a quote due to what seemed like high volatility then. Of course that was nothing compared to right now.

I did okay but I would have done better if they had sent me the quote in a timely manner.

But I'm not complaining; I wouldn't want to be a bullion dealer in this environment.

As for your concern, I wouldn't worry too much. Either the volatility will calm down or we are in the end times for the dollar.
That’s good to know. Thank you.
In either case, I don't think the bogleheads will be dissing the PP after this insane situation.
Never say never. O0 Biggest % market gain since 1933 just happened. If it continues, this will all have been a bad dream for them.
Statue in the square /Meant so much when it first stood
People come from far and near/ To bless them if, bless them if it would
Strange times are here
User avatar
technovelist
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5573
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:20 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by technovelist » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:52 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:41 pm
technovelist wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:07 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:35 pm
technovelist wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:15 am
..
I wouldn't want to be a bullion dealer today.
I’m not looking forward to the day I’ll need to sell coins, wondering if the dealer’s quote is closer to Yahoo or the WSJ or Kitco at the moment. “Hi, dealer, never mind. I’ll call you back in 5 five minutes.”

Ochotona mentioned being able to buy with a limit order, just like with stocks.
I don’t imagine you can sell that way, though. I guess you just have to wait for a sustained upward trend.
Tech, did you plotz over it when you had your large, recent sale?
That was a weird transaction because I had to ask for a quote due to what seemed like high volatility then. Of course that was nothing compared to right now.

I did okay but I would have done better if they had sent me the quote in a timely manner.

But I'm not complaining; I wouldn't want to be a bullion dealer in this environment.

As for your concern, I wouldn't worry too much. Either the volatility will calm down or we are in the end times for the dollar.
That’s good to know. Thank you.
In either case, I don't think the bogleheads will be dissing the PP after this insane situation.
Never say never. O0 Biggest % market gain since 1933 just happened. If it continues, this will all have been a bad dream for them.
That's almost certainly a bull trap, very common in bear markets.
It did get me out of a stupid speculation I put in last week, so I'm happy.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10265
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:21 pm

Care to share the speculation?

P.S. This is one of those days that I don’t mind gold moving in near lockstep with equities.
Statue in the square /Meant so much when it first stood
People come from far and near/ To bless them if, bless them if it would
Strange times are here
Post Reply