Gyroscopic Investing

Crazy how a gold rally in the morning ended up down by the close

2nd day in a row...sold some IAU @ 17.79 this morning - bird in the hand and all...was 40/15/0/45 and now 35/12.5/0/52.5 stocks/gold/bonds/cash.

Been reducing allocation to stocks for several weeks now.

Same , I am very close to 100% pp which is rare for me as well as an almost 50% cash position ...but I don’t like what I am seeing ..better safe than sorry. Although with the pounding gold and tlt have been getting I am not sure if anything is going to hold up well

Only buy gold when it's cheap and you'll always be happy.

I define cheap as:

GSR under 70

S&P to gold over 1.7

Both are true right now.

SomeDude wrote: ↑Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:13 am GSR under 70

Oooops! :-)

GLD is now below the 10 month MA too (SMA200 it already passed). The ones that rebalance to cash in such conditions - will you do so now or will you wait for the "Last kiss" pattern to form ? Just asking out of curiosity ..

Vil wrote: ↑Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:12 pm GLD is now below the 10 month MA too (SMA200 it already passed). The ones that rebalance to cash in such conditions - will you do so now or will you wait for the "Last kiss" pattern to form ? Just asking out of curiosity ..

Just in case all you "dumb" money people forgot, there is nothing that ever goes up all the time, except stocks! Screw this pp thing. I am going 100% stocks!

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:46 pm there is nothing that ever goes up all the time, except stocks! Screw this pp thing. I am going 100% stocks!

Agree on PP. I will become TIPS investor (TIPS are cool and heard they are expected to be even more cool this year )

Which means odds are inflation fears were over done and tips get stuck holding the hot potato.

Any time we think we got it figured out stuff we didn’t plan on alters that course .

We have had trillions and trillions pumped into the economy since 2008 and this is as high as inflation got .....pretty pathetic when you think about how much was was pumped in and was unprecedented

My edit:

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:28 pm Which means odds are inflation fears were over done and tipsBogleheads holding TIPS get stuck holding the hot potato.
...

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:28 pm We have had trillions and trillions pumped into the economy

You know I still have difficulties assimilating what a trillion USD mean.. I think it was pmward explaining the magnitude of it (giving the example of trillion seconds that equal 31709 years....)

Examples. A billion is measly!

http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:16 am Examples. A billion is measly!

100 trillion :-)

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:16 am Examples. A billion is measly!

Haha, thanks, visual representation makes it easier...
Personally, I'd rather imagine that there is some programmer somewhere and he is instructed to utilize the shift left (<<) operator, that's well known from several programming languages as the fastest way to multiply a number with 2^n (where n is the number voted by Congress).

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:38 pm

-0.74% in USD, -1.29% in EUR (as USD is rising). How long should we wait

Vil wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:55 am -0.74% in USD, -1.29% in EUR (as USD is rising). How long should we wait

Re-balancing band.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:28 am

Vil wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:55 am -0.74% in USD, -1.29% in EUR (as USD is rising). How long should we wait

Re-balancing band.

Krieg, sorry, guess was not clear, I am joking.
Btw, if I can recall (think was in Craig's book) PP did not do that bad even without rebalancing..

Buying some IAU @ 17 now.
Out at 17.79 and in at 17.02

Ahh, gold, the asset I continue to love to hate.

Buy stocks! Gold sucks!

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:47 am Ahh, gold, the asset I continue to love to hate.

Buy stocks! Gold sucks!

For me, it’s having more stocks than gold that allows me to stay with my precious metals allocation.

Is there an explanation why gold fell 2.5% today?

About the same reason why Nasdaq and Dow just keep going up, I guess.

The answer can come in many forms, but the real answer is I Don't Know.

What we do know is when this happens, people usually pile on for a spell, so expect lower.

mathjak is pretty good at timing these. I wouldn't be.

When gold's price drops sharply, it's because one of us recently bought a lot of it.

When gold's price jumps sharply, it's because one of us recently sold a lot of it.

The gold market's movements make a lot more sense when viewed through that explanatory lens.

Don wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:40 pm Is there an explanation why gold fell 2.5% today?

Stronger dollar.