Gold to bounce soon?

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pugchief
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Gold to bounce soon?

Post by pugchief » Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:39 pm

Technically, gold is massively oversold. It has dropped from $1,360 to $1,240 an ounce since mid-April. By all conventional technical measures, it is due for a bounce.

Seasonally, gold tends to fare best between July and October. If you want to bet on the yellow metal, this is the time of the year to do it.

Finally, sentiment toward gold is near a 10-year low.

The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that money managers are net short gold futures for one of the few times in more than a decade.

And when money managers have been short gold in the past, it returned an average of 13.4% over the following three months.

None of these factors alone are enough to tip the scales in favor of gold. But taken together, they offer a robust risk-versus-reward trade.
The whole article here: https://libertythroughwealth.com/2018/0 ... into-gold/
Warning: The author is negative on gold in general and says so in the article.
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by dualstow » Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:22 pm

This is for people getting in and out of gold, right? Not real investors.
(article author) If you want to bet on the yellow metal,
And look to ride it until the gold price hits $1,370.
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ochotona
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by ochotona » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:41 am

I think I'll take another look at accumulating GLDM after about 5 or 6 months have passed since the price slide started mid-April 2018. Maybe wait until after the FOMC meeting in late September.
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by dualstow » Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:06 am

No rush here.
The Beatles started it - they did it the best, and everyone who came after them were a kind of Beatles tribute band. ~ Kurt Cobain
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ochotona
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by ochotona » Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:08 am

As long as the US Dollar is climbing, gold is falling. The Turkey thing is killing gold as people swarm out of the Euro.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:21 am

Everything kills gold...
Calling @tech, what is your take on the recent plunge?
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Cortopassi
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:58 pm

For the first time in a long time, I have not looked at my accounts since Friday.

Until now.

Woo hoo, back up the truck, buying opportunity. What's the icon for sarcasm?
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by dualstow » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:33 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:58 pm
Woo hoo, back up the truck, buying opportunity. What's the icon for sarcasm?
https://goo.gl/images/9tvhZF
The Beatles started it - they did it the best, and everyone who came after them were a kind of Beatles tribute band. ~ Kurt Cobain
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by hardlawjockey » Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:07 am

An article about Elizabeth Warren's "Accountable Capitalism Act". I tend to think that if it had any chance of passing or if it even looks like Ms Warren has any chance of being elected president in 2020, gold will do much more than just "bounce".

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/08/ ... hard-left/
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buddtholomew
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:17 am

Why do we want Gold to go up (serious question)?
Are we thinking about this the wrong way?
What is the impact to our daily lives if Gold doubles?
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by hardlawjockey » Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:30 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:17 am
Why do we want Gold to go up (serious question)?
Are we thinking about this the wrong way?
What is the impact to our daily lives if Gold doubles?
Well, I think we definitely want it to go up if everything else is going down, which is basically why I thought we held it.

But generally speaking, a high price of gold probably isn't a sign of economic health.
Last edited by hardlawjockey on Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:48 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Desert
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by Desert » Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:33 am

Budd, I agree. The last time we had a big gold rally was during the run-up to the worst financial crisis since the great depression. I think we should enjoy our cheap gold.

By the way, I expect to see triple digit gold again at some point. But I'm buying anyway, to rebalance.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:00 pm

hardlawjockey wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:30 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:17 am
Why do we want Gold to go up (serious question)?
Are we thinking about this the wrong way?
What is the impact to our daily lives if Gold doubles?
Well, I think we definitely want it to go up if everything else is going down, which is basically why I thought we held it.
Right, but everything else is not going down so there’s no reason to want Gold to go up. I think it’s best to think of this asset as an insurance policy. I’m sure Gold has made some people rich but more are wealthy having prudently invested in stocks and bonds as well. This thinking may actually work ;D
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by stuper1 » Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:23 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:00 pm
hardlawjockey wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:30 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:17 am
Why do we want Gold to go up (serious question)?
Are we thinking about this the wrong way?
What is the impact to our daily lives if Gold doubles?
Well, I think we definitely want it to go up if everything else is going down, which is basically why I thought we held it.
Right, but everything else is not going down so there’s no reason to want Gold to go up. I think it’s best to think of this asset as an insurance policy. I’m sure Gold has made some people rich but more are wealthy having prudently invested in stocks and bonds as well. This thinking may actually work ;D
Budd,

You are making progress. Well done. I look at half of my gold as an investment, especially for lowering volatility and rebalancing when stocks/bonds are correlated. I look at the other half of my gold as insurance for a major financial meltdown. I really need to increase my physical gold, because the paper gold probably isn't good insurance.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:32 pm

Haha, thanks stuper1.
Looks like my insurance went up today as China strength is the US (USD) weakness

OR

Maybe someone is actually listening to all this whining and finally doing something about it ;D
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by Kbg » Fri Aug 17, 2018 5:59 pm

I have some proprietary stuff I follow...suggests a good time to buy. I rebalanced to up my gold holdings. On the other hand if history is any guide we could go lower, but the odds are against that.
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ochotona
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by ochotona » Sat Aug 18, 2018 7:21 am

Decent time to buy some.
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:23 am

budd has got the right thought process. Gold going up generally means something bad happened. I want to be hedged against that, but I don't really want it to happen.
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by Cortopassi » Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:38 pm

I don't need a double, what I would like to see on a reasonably alternating basis is an asset leading for one year to pull gains out and rebalance into laggards. Back and forth, back and forth while the overall trajectory is up and to the right.

Problem for a while here has been gold hasn't been in take profits mode for a yearly rebalance, it has been a laggard.
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by eufo » Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:35 am

Should we ever complain that a physical asset is becoming cheaper? I was watching an interview yesterday where the assertion was made that this is a mainly US phenomenon; that US investors tend to be trend followers and only want to buy what's going up. It's been my experience that nearly everyone I know here is like that.

I love these low prices, but I'm underweight everything save cash, so maybe I'm biased.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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pugchief
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by pugchief » Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:46 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:38 pm
I don't need a double, what I would like to see on a reasonably alternating basis is an asset leading for one year to pull gains out and rebalance into laggards. Back and forth, back and forth while the overall trajectory is up and to the right.

Problem for a while here has been gold hasn't been in take profits mode for a yearly rebalance, it has been a laggard.
So you keep buying the lagging asset on the cheap. Eventually, if you are patient, gold will have its day. Then you can buy stocks on the cheap.

I mean, aren't we all essentially investing cheapskates here on this forum?
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buddtholomew
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by buddtholomew » Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:20 am

eufo wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:35 am
Should we ever complain that a physical asset is becoming cheaper? I was watching an interview yesterday where the assertion was made that this is a mainly US phenomenon; that US investors tend to be trend followers and only want to buy what's going up. It's been my experience that nearly everyone I know here is like that.

I love these low prices, but I'm underweight everything save cash, so maybe I'm biased.
Double check that you are actually better off waiting to invest in the other assets. I’m + over 1MM YTD...you do realize that the S&P is +ve +7% and SCV for me + 12.5% YTD.
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eufo
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by eufo » Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:26 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:20 am
eufo wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:35 am
Should we ever complain that a physical asset is becoming cheaper? I was watching an interview yesterday where the assertion was made that this is a mainly US phenomenon; that US investors tend to be trend followers and only want to buy what's going up. It's been my experience that nearly everyone I know here is like that.

I love these low prices, but I'm underweight everything save cash, so maybe I'm biased.
Double check that you are actually better off waiting to invest in the other assets. I’m + over 1MM YTD...you do realize that the S&P is +ve +7% and SCV for me + 12.5% YTD.
Oh yeah, for sure. I'm overweight cash from selling out of most of my small cap and mid cap exposure (IJR & IJH, respectively). I still hold some equities, but I'm underweight. I'll likely remain that way unless there is a big move either direction.

Something seems wrong in the market, so I'm not in a rush to get back to 40% equities.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by ochotona » Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:36 am

Gold sentiment not bad enough, Hulbert index needs to go more negative...

Patience!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-g ... 2018-08-17
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by eufo » Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:03 am

ochotona wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:36 am
Gold sentiment not bad enough, Hulbert index needs to go more negative...

Patience!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-g ... 2018-08-17
"slope of hope" Lol!
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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