What's going on with silver?

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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technovelist
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by technovelist » Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:53 am

dualstow wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:51 am
AJPM dot com says
We currently have no live silver product at any of our locations.
https://online.kitco.com/buy/100710P/10 ... er-100710P
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dualstow
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:54 am

Ooh, AJPM should buy some of that. O0
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ochotona
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:07 pm

I'm going to buy some SIVR.
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Vil
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Vil » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:04 am

On 18/03 I bought quite some silver ETF shares (if I have to be precise - VZLC).
Normally, I step lightly in such occasions given the invested amount, but simply was not able to resist those 2009-ish price levels... And IMHO that might be quite close to the bottom this asset can have relevant to the current USD buying power (unless people realize they can't eat silver, but that's far too pessimistic scenario). Today there's a good increase, but honestly I do not count on those short term +/- fluctuations..
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by technovelist » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:19 am

Vil wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:04 am
On 18/03 I bought quite some silver ETF shares (if I have to be precise - VZLC).
Normally, I step lightly in such occasions given the invested amount, but simply was not able to resist those 2009-ish price levels... And IMHO that might be quite close to the bottom this asset can have relevant to the current USD buying power (unless people realize they can't eat silver, but that's far too pessimistic scenario). Today there's a good increase, but honestly I do not count on those short term +/- fluctuations..
Don't mention this on bogleheads or they will be CERTAIN to inform people that they can't eat silver!
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dualstow
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:27 am

ochotona wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:07 pm
I'm going to buy some SIVR.
I was just reviewing this thread viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8759&start=24 in which you said
Being an aimless dreamer, I set my silver buy at $15
(page 3)

Silver has been an interesting ride. As I type, the spot price is $12.64 and maybe _____ each to actually buy 10oz
(Oop, I can’t fill in today’s price because it’s out of stock)
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Vil » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:33 am

technovelist wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:19 am
Don't mention this on bogleheads or they will be CERTAIN to inform people that they can't eat silver!
Promise, I will not. Stopped attending their forum once I realized (unfortunately, and not that I am ill) I may enjoy not that long life. And I think, long life is a must-have if one decide to follow their "common sense" advice. ;D
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:40 am

What does that mean? Had your genes analyzed and found a risky heart condition?
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Vil » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:58 am

Thanks for asking, but no, simply it does mean, I count on not seeing my important money (some people name them "money they cant afford to lose") disappearing with tremendous speed, and then waiting ages to recover. With those important money I prefer to have more gradual approach. Well, for sure there are guys in BH forum that really appear to know what they're talking about, and they're covering wide range of topics too, but the mantras they're repeating are just not for me.

Sorry, if what I am saying sounds too trivial or already said millions of times - simply I can't say anything else.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:00 am

Ahh, I see. I’m glad that's not the case. Not trivial at all.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by pmward » Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:32 pm

While I'm looking at spreads, you guys might find this interesting. This is the GLD to SLV weekly spread going all the way back to the start of 2007. A couple interesting things. First, since 2011 we have been in a very clean and defined channel of gold out performing silver. We just broke out above the channel. Most (but not all) channel breakouts eventually fail and come back into the channel. Second, we just set an all-time high on RSI of 90. The next highest RSI read was in Oct 2008 right before silver broke out relative to gold. There are a couple other RSI breakouts in between there that failed to mean revert, so no guarantees. But SLV is looking tempting if this starts to break down.
Screen Shot 2020-03-21 at 3.25.55 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-03-21 at 3.25.55 PM.png (466.33 KiB) Viewed 446 times
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Vil » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:53 am

Thanks for sharing it. Indeed, my understanding is the same as yours. I got well enough of it (ETF equivalent of ~100 kg), now have to do nothing and wait. Regarding the price - again I have a simplified view of how it works - I think the production cost cannot be beaten down in a sustainable manner and over long periods of time.
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