What's going on with silver?

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Someguy
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Someguy » Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:13 pm

What do you think about this "silver" PP in transition to a standard PP:

- 25% Stocks
- 25% Bonds
- 25% Cash
- 25% Silver (because of the ratio)

When I need to rebalance, I sell silver (if more than 25% in that moment) or I buy gold (if silver less than 25%). When I need to rebalance again, I sell silver (if both metals are more than 25%) or I buy gold (if both metals are less than 25%).

In a few years there will not be silver in the portfolio.
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Ad Orientem
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:13 pm

Someguy wrote:
Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:13 pm
What do you think about this "silver" PP in transition to a standard PP:

- 25% Stocks
- 25% Bonds
- 25% Cash
- 25% Silver (because of the ratio)

When I need to rebalance, I sell silver (if more than 25% in that moment) or I buy gold (if silver less than 25%). When I need to rebalance again, I sell silver (if both metals are more than 25%) or I buy gold (if both metals are less than 25%).

In a few years there will not be silver in the portfolio.
Not wild about it unless you are living in a place where its illegal to own gold. I own a little silver as a VP speculation. But silver is not a good substitute for gold. For one thing it's not a pure precious metal play. Silver is both a precious metal and an industrial metal. That means its price can be effected by different factors including a general slow down in the economy.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:57 am

Agreed, AO, as the last 13 years have shown. Nice to have some, ideally to rebalance some gains, but not 25%

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ochotona
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:27 am

gold silver ratio getting close to 90 again
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:04 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:27 am
gold silver ratio getting close to 90 again
It's been asked before- does the ratio mean anything?

I don't suppose there's a place out there where one can trade silver for gold and vice versa, with less friction?
RIP Dusty Hill and be well, Bob Odenkirk
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Aug 02, 2019 3:41 pm

From an historical perspective silver looks significantly undervalued relative to gold. But that's no guarantee. And even if it is cheap, it could be a while before the gap closes. If your looking for a place to make a speculative wager less all the extra premiums and other issues that come with physical, I'd consider SLV.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:06 pm

Physical silver is a costly trade. My 100 oz bar is a fetish object. I'm only buying one. Agree on SLV.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:18 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:04 pm
ochotona wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:27 am
gold silver ratio getting close to 90 again
It's been asked before- does the ratio mean anything?

I don't suppose there's a place out there where one can trade silver for gold and vice versa, with less friction?
Harry Brown didn't think the ratio meant anything.
I agree with him.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by pmward » Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:50 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:18 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:04 pm
ochotona wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:27 am
gold silver ratio getting close to 90 again
It's been asked before- does the ratio mean anything?

I don't suppose there's a place out there where one can trade silver for gold and vice versa, with less friction?
Harry Brown didn't think the ratio meant anything.
I agree with him.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the more industrialized of a commodity it becomes, the more divorced it becomes from gold, and the more record gold to silver ratio spreads we hit. I think that silver is apt to correlate more with the likes of platinum, palladium, and the other industrial metals vs gold these days. It's actually easier for me to assume that the record spread is because of the fundamental shift in the silver markets over the last couple decades vs thinking this arbitrary indication means that it's cheap and going to perform well. Gold has taken off and silver is still languishing. I see no fundamental reason why this has to change, or even why it should change. Should silver start to break out it might be worth making a short term tactical momentum play in the VP. But I think that allocating the gold portion of the PP itself away from gold to silver, especially the entire lot, just seems silly and completely breaks the point. Browne specifically chose gold because it is a monetary metal and not an industrial metal.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Libertarian666 » Sat Aug 03, 2019 6:03 pm

pmward wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:50 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:18 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:04 pm


It's been asked before- does the ratio mean anything?

I don't suppose there's a place out there where one can trade silver for gold and vice versa, with less friction?
Harry Brown didn't think the ratio meant anything.
I agree with him.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the more industrialized of a commodity it becomes, the more divorced it becomes from gold, and the more record gold to silver ratio spreads we hit. I think that silver is apt to correlate more with the likes of platinum, palladium, and the other industrial metals vs gold these days. It's actually easier for me to assume that the record spread is because of the fundamental shift in the silver markets over the last couple decades vs thinking this arbitrary indication means that it's cheap and going to perform well. Gold has taken off and silver is still languishing. I see no fundamental reason why this has to change, or even why it should change. Should silver start to break out it might be worth making a short term tactical momentum play in the VP. But I think that allocating the gold portion of the PP itself away from gold to silver, especially the entire lot, just seems silly and completely breaks the point. Browne specifically chose gold because it is a monetary metal and not an industrial metal.
Yep.
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Ad Orientem
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:04 pm

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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Mike59 » Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:28 am

In my experience precious metals trading is best done by relative valuation compared to a long term mean. I use a 50 month SMA. As it stands silver is on my watch list and I would say it's neutral (close to it's 50 month SMA), I've been loading up on Platinum in the last year in my VP and I see much more upside there.

Having said that, my PP gold allocation has outperformed the other VP holdings big time and I'm thankful that of my total investments VP is only about 10%, it is gambling at the end of the day. These other metals will have their day in the sun, likely further along in gold's bull market when enthusiasm spills over into all the other metals.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:32 am

Silver has breached $18.00 oz.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:47 pm

Two detectorists in England found enough Norman silver coins to give Ad O a treasure bath -

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-49487078
RIP Dusty Hill and be well, Bob Odenkirk
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:40 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:47 pm
Two detectorists in England found enough Norman silver coins to give Ad O a treasure bath -

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-49487078
That's cool as shit, coins with William the Conqueror and King Harold.

This part is a big downer though:
Under the Treasure Act 1996, finders of potential treasure in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are legally obliged to notify their local coroner
An inquest then determines whether the finds constitute treasure
The act contains a number of definitions of "treasure", including prehistoric objects, coins that contain gold or silver and are at least 300 years old, or more recent valuable objects that have been deliberately hidden
If the find is declared treasure, the finder must offer it for sale to a museum at a price set by the British Museum's Treasure Valuation Committee
Hmm, I wonder what they think a fair price is?
If the hoard is officially declared as treasure, the Roman Baths in Bath hopes to acquire the coins.

Stephen Clews, from the Roman Baths, said: "If you look at the true value of this, it's about 500 sheep - that's what you would have been to able to buy with them about 1,000 years ago.

"So what we need to do is translate that into some sort of modern value."
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
"You haven't, I suppose, ever mixed with politicians at close quarters. They're awful. I think some of these must have been the dregs anyhow, but I've discovered, what previously I didn't believe possible, that politicians behave in private life and say exactly the same things as they do in public. Their stupidity is inhuman.
- John Maynard Keynes
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:12 pm

btw, as you can guess, coroner does not mean over there what it means in the U.S. I learned that watching the hilarious and charming British show, ‘Detectorists.’
RIP Dusty Hill and be well, Bob Odenkirk
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:26 pm

Wow. Silver blew right past $19 oz. And fwiw, silver is decoupling from gold. It won't last of course. But recently silver has been going up pretty much regardless of what gold has been doing. It took a while but I think some of the big boys have figured out that silver is still somewhat cheap relative to gold. That said, the silver gold price ratio has dropped below 80:1 for the first time since I started buying a little over a year ago. While I still think there could be more upside, I am not buying anymore. Below 80:1 silver is a hold in my book.
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ochotona
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:47 pm

I sold my small SIVR position today, it was up 25% in a very short period of time. It was in my HSA, when it moves over to Fidelity, I will be buying IAU...or maybe rebuying SIVR if it is below where I sold it. But I'm keeping the 100 oz bar.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:29 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:47 pm
I sold my small SIVR position today, it was up 25% in a very short period of time. It was in my HSA, when it moves over to Fidelity, I will be buying IAU...or maybe rebuying SIVR if it is below where I sold it. But I'm keeping the 100 oz bar.
Wow. You timed that well.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:31 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:29 am
ochotona wrote:
Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:47 pm
I sold my small SIVR position today, it was up 25% in a very short period of time. It was in my HSA, when it moves over to Fidelity, I will be buying IAU...or maybe rebuying SIVR if it is below where I sold it. But I'm keeping the 100 oz bar.
Wow. You timed that well.
I think this belongs in the "what have we learned over the past ten years thread" - Nothing goes up in a straight line. You simply have to sell or partially sell geometric moves up.
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Ad Orientem
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:58 pm

The last 48 hrs... Looks like someone beat the snot out of silver with the ugly stick.

I need to turn off the TV and computer, and go find a good book to read.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:58 pm

Excellent. I was hoping for an opportunity to add to my physical collection today. ;)
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process." - Alan Greenspan, 1966
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:00 pm

I have a Queen's Beasts silver coin from a year ago that's already starting to tarnish on the edges. I use cotton gloves now, but I think I'm done buying silver, except that which I'll give away.
RIP Dusty Hill and be well, Bob Odenkirk
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:08 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:00 pm
I have a Queen's Beasts silver coin from a year ago that's already starting to tarnish on the edges. I use cotton gloves now, but I think I'm done buying silver, except that which I'll give away.
The tarnishing is an absolute pain.

The bullion dealer I favour gives out these free little plastic sleeves that fit quite tight around the surfaces of the coins... that has seemed to help some.

I've got to say though: I'm sure you'll agree that seeing literal stacks of silver on the desk is mighty satisfying.
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process." - Alan Greenspan, 1966
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:40 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:08 pm
...
I've got to say though: I'm sure you'll agree that seeing literal stacks of silver on the desk is mighty satisfying.
I don’t know, because I’ve never stacked them on my desk. O0 I don’t have any silver larger than a coin, and I only have about 30 coins.
RIP Dusty Hill and be well, Bob Odenkirk
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