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Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:57 am
by Cortopassi
Agreed, AO, as the last 13 years have shown. Nice to have some, ideally to rebalance some gains, but not 25%

Image

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:27 am
by ochotona
gold silver ratio getting close to 90 again

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:04 pm
by dualstow
ochotona wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:27 am
gold silver ratio getting close to 90 again
It's been asked before- does the ratio mean anything?

I don't suppose there's a place out there where one can trade silver for gold and vice versa, with less friction?

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 3:41 pm
by Ad Orientem
From an historical perspective silver looks significantly undervalued relative to gold. But that's no guarantee. And even if it is cheap, it could be a while before the gap closes. If your looking for a place to make a speculative wager less all the extra premiums and other issues that come with physical, I'd consider SLV.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:06 pm
by ochotona
Physical silver is a costly trade. My 100 oz bar is a fetish object. I'm only buying one. Agree on SLV.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:18 pm
by Libertarian666
dualstow wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:04 pm
ochotona wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:27 am
gold silver ratio getting close to 90 again
It's been asked before- does the ratio mean anything?

I don't suppose there's a place out there where one can trade silver for gold and vice versa, with less friction?
Harry Brown didn't think the ratio meant anything.
I agree with him.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:50 am
by pmward
Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:18 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:04 pm
ochotona wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:27 am
gold silver ratio getting close to 90 again
It's been asked before- does the ratio mean anything?

I don't suppose there's a place out there where one can trade silver for gold and vice versa, with less friction?
Harry Brown didn't think the ratio meant anything.
I agree with him.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the more industrialized of a commodity it becomes, the more divorced it becomes from gold, and the more record gold to silver ratio spreads we hit. I think that silver is apt to correlate more with the likes of platinum, palladium, and the other industrial metals vs gold these days. It's actually easier for me to assume that the record spread is because of the fundamental shift in the silver markets over the last couple decades vs thinking this arbitrary indication means that it's cheap and going to perform well. Gold has taken off and silver is still languishing. I see no fundamental reason why this has to change, or even why it should change. Should silver start to break out it might be worth making a short term tactical momentum play in the VP. But I think that allocating the gold portion of the PP itself away from gold to silver, especially the entire lot, just seems silly and completely breaks the point. Browne specifically chose gold because it is a monetary metal and not an industrial metal.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 6:03 pm
by Libertarian666
pmward wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:50 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:18 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:04 pm


It's been asked before- does the ratio mean anything?

I don't suppose there's a place out there where one can trade silver for gold and vice versa, with less friction?
Harry Brown didn't think the ratio meant anything.
I agree with him.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the more industrialized of a commodity it becomes, the more divorced it becomes from gold, and the more record gold to silver ratio spreads we hit. I think that silver is apt to correlate more with the likes of platinum, palladium, and the other industrial metals vs gold these days. It's actually easier for me to assume that the record spread is because of the fundamental shift in the silver markets over the last couple decades vs thinking this arbitrary indication means that it's cheap and going to perform well. Gold has taken off and silver is still languishing. I see no fundamental reason why this has to change, or even why it should change. Should silver start to break out it might be worth making a short term tactical momentum play in the VP. But I think that allocating the gold portion of the PP itself away from gold to silver, especially the entire lot, just seems silly and completely breaks the point. Browne specifically chose gold because it is a monetary metal and not an industrial metal.
Yep.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:04 pm
by Ad Orientem
Image

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:28 am
by Mike59
In my experience precious metals trading is best done by relative valuation compared to a long term mean. I use a 50 month SMA. As it stands silver is on my watch list and I would say it's neutral (close to it's 50 month SMA), I've been loading up on Platinum in the last year in my VP and I see much more upside there.

Having said that, my PP gold allocation has outperformed the other VP holdings big time and I'm thankful that of my total investments VP is only about 10%, it is gambling at the end of the day. These other metals will have their day in the sun, likely further along in gold's bull market when enthusiasm spills over into all the other metals.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:32 am
by Ad Orientem
Silver has breached $18.00 oz.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:47 pm
by dualstow
Two detectorists in England found enough Norman silver coins to give Ad O a treasure bath -

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-49487078

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:40 pm
by Kriegsspiel
dualstow wrote:
Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:47 pm
Two detectorists in England found enough Norman silver coins to give Ad O a treasure bath -

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-49487078
That's cool as shit, coins with William the Conqueror and King Harold.

This part is a big downer though:
Under the Treasure Act 1996, finders of potential treasure in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are legally obliged to notify their local coroner
An inquest then determines whether the finds constitute treasure
The act contains a number of definitions of "treasure", including prehistoric objects, coins that contain gold or silver and are at least 300 years old, or more recent valuable objects that have been deliberately hidden
If the find is declared treasure, the finder must offer it for sale to a museum at a price set by the British Museum's Treasure Valuation Committee
Hmm, I wonder what they think a fair price is?
If the hoard is officially declared as treasure, the Roman Baths in Bath hopes to acquire the coins.

Stephen Clews, from the Roman Baths, said: "If you look at the true value of this, it's about 500 sheep - that's what you would have been to able to buy with them about 1,000 years ago.

"So what we need to do is translate that into some sort of modern value."
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:12 pm
by dualstow
btw, as you can guess, coroner does not mean over there what it means in the U.S. I learned that watching the hilarious and charming British show, ‘Detectorists.’

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:26 pm
by Ad Orientem
Wow. Silver blew right past $19 oz. And fwiw, silver is decoupling from gold. It won't last of course. But recently silver has been going up pretty much regardless of what gold has been doing. It took a while but I think some of the big boys have figured out that silver is still somewhat cheap relative to gold. That said, the silver gold price ratio has dropped below 80:1 for the first time since I started buying a little over a year ago. While I still think there could be more upside, I am not buying anymore. Below 80:1 silver is a hold in my book.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:47 pm
by ochotona
I sold my small SIVR position today, it was up 25% in a very short period of time. It was in my HSA, when it moves over to Fidelity, I will be buying IAU...or maybe rebuying SIVR if it is below where I sold it. But I'm keeping the 100 oz bar.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:29 am
by Ad Orientem
ochotona wrote:
Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:47 pm
I sold my small SIVR position today, it was up 25% in a very short period of time. It was in my HSA, when it moves over to Fidelity, I will be buying IAU...or maybe rebuying SIVR if it is below where I sold it. But I'm keeping the 100 oz bar.
Wow. You timed that well.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:31 am
by ochotona
Ad Orientem wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:29 am
ochotona wrote:
Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:47 pm
I sold my small SIVR position today, it was up 25% in a very short period of time. It was in my HSA, when it moves over to Fidelity, I will be buying IAU...or maybe rebuying SIVR if it is below where I sold it. But I'm keeping the 100 oz bar.
Wow. You timed that well.
I think this belongs in the "what have we learned over the past ten years thread" - Nothing goes up in a straight line. You simply have to sell or partially sell geometric moves up.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:58 pm
by Ad Orientem
The last 48 hrs... Looks like someone beat the snot out of silver with the ugly stick.

I need to turn off the TV and computer, and go find a good book to read.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:58 pm
by Smith1776
Excellent. I was hoping for an opportunity to add to my physical collection today. ;)

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:00 pm
by dualstow
I have a Queen's Beasts silver coin from a year ago that's already starting to tarnish on the edges. I use cotton gloves now, but I think I'm done buying silver, except that which I'll give away.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:08 pm
by Smith1776
dualstow wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:00 pm
I have a Queen's Beasts silver coin from a year ago that's already starting to tarnish on the edges. I use cotton gloves now, but I think I'm done buying silver, except that which I'll give away.
The tarnishing is an absolute pain.

The bullion dealer I favour gives out these free little plastic sleeves that fit quite tight around the surfaces of the coins... that has seemed to help some.

I've got to say though: I'm sure you'll agree that seeing literal stacks of silver on the desk is mighty satisfying.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:40 pm
by dualstow
Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:08 pm
...
I've got to say though: I'm sure you'll agree that seeing literal stacks of silver on the desk is mighty satisfying.
I don’t know, because I’ve never stacked them on my desk. O0 I don’t have any silver larger than a coin, and I only have about 30 coins.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:21 pm
by Ad Orientem
Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:08 pm

I've got to say though: I'm sure you'll agree that seeing literal stacks of silver on the desk is mighty satisfying.

Image

Damn. Now I want to buy more.

Re: What's going on with silver?

Posted: Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:25 am
by ochotona
Nothing beats the 100 oz bar. It has amazing fondle characteristics. If we get a good price dip, think about getting one. The premium over spot is lower.