Some of the most important characteristics of complex systems are:
- The number of elements is sufficiently large that conventional descriptions (e.g. a system of differential equations) are not only impractical, but cease to assist in understanding the system. Moreover, the elements interact dynamically, and the interactions can be physical or involve the exchange of information.
- Such interactions are rich, i.e. any element or sub-system in the system is affected by and affects several other elements or sub-systems
- The interactions are non-linear: small changes in inputs, physical interactions or stimuli can cause large effects or very significant changes in outputs
- Interactions are primarily but not exclusively with immediate neighbors and the nature of the influence is modulated
- Any interaction can feed back onto itself directly or after a number of intervening stages. Such feedback can vary in quality. This is known as recurrency
- The overall behavior of the system of elements is not predicted by the behavior of the individual elements
- Such systems may be open and it may be difficult or impossible to define system boundaries
- Complex systems operate under far from equilibrium conditions. There has to be a constant flow of energy to maintain the organization of the system
- Complex systems have a history. They evolve and their past is co-responsible for their present behavior
- Elements in the system may be ignorant of the behavior of the system as a whole, responding only to the information or physical stimuli available to them locally
A couple more highly relevant to COVID and COVID discussions
- Hawthorne effect, a form of reactivity in which subjects modify an aspect of their behavior, in response to their knowing that they are being studied
- Observer-expectancy effect, a form of reactivity in which a researcher's cognitive bias causes them to unconsciously influence the participants of an experiment
- Observer bias, a detection bias in research studies resulting for example from an observer's cognitive biases
What I find completely baffling is how many seem incapable of changing viewpoints as evidence comes in. What I think is relatively clear from the evidence.
Masks and lockdowns do work and were implemented even in heavy red states when things got out of control
For the large majority, COVID ranged from a nothing burger to something akin to severe flu.
The vaccination program is indisputably and rapidly bringing the numbers down.
Pfizer #1 on 3/15...I'm ready to move on with a more normal life and hope to travel toward the end of the year and I expect vaccination passports are going to be a thing to travel internationally. While I appreciate that folks are concerned with how rushed it was, the fact remains COVID has been the most studied virus in human history in a very short period of time. I've been managing things for a little over two decades now and last time I checked a pretty solid management principle is: more people = things get done faster.