Is Trump doing a good job?

Other discussions not related to the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
Xan
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 4392
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:51 pm

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by Xan » Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:54 am

We've had a lot of discussions over the years here about how a balanced budget may not be so good. It seems to cause recessions. The debt of the government is the savings of the private sector. There really isn't a need to "pay back" debt.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:26 am

On the debt, what about the argument about all the interest payments to the private sector?

People have been saying for years that everything implodes if interest rates ever get back up to a "normal" level, because all the govt revenue would be going to service the debt.

So does that mean interest rates will never really rise, until it is an uncontrollable crisis the likes of which we've never seen? And how far can that can be kicked? 2 years, 10 years, 50 years?
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9422
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by vnatale » Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:18 pm

Xan wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:54 am
We've had a lot of discussions over the years here about how a balanced budget may not be so good. It seems to cause recessions. The debt of the government is the savings of the private sector. There really isn't a need to "pay back" debt.
Doesn't want your last two sentences say mimic what the famed liberal Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman maintains? Or, I guess, what he used to say?

http://economiccollapsenews.com/2017/01 ... president/

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9422
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by vnatale » Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:26 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:21 pm
Vinny, it is pretty universally accepted by members of this forum that Krugman is a complete moron.
That is EXACTLY what I expected. Yet he seemed to have the same attitude towards the deficit as just stated here previously. Of which I don't agree. I think that they matter tremendously. I'm forgetting whether or not Harry Browne took a position on this.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
I Shrugged
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2062
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by I Shrugged » Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:19 pm

Vinny, I am sure HB thought that the debt mattered.

I'm of the opinion that it will end badly. We saw a preview in 09. Supposedly protected creditors were forced by government fiat to step aside while favored groups got bailed out. Some day, sooner or later, the faith of creditors will evaporate beyond the ability of central banks to weave their magic.

But I never forget one of Harry's best sayings. Anything can happen, and nothing has to happen.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:59 pm

“The Republican and Democratic balanced budget proposals are misleading, because they don’t guarantee a balanced budget -- only ‘good intentions.’ I propose an amendment that would limit all federal spending (on-budget and off-budget) to the amount of revenues received in the prior fiscal year.

- Harry Browne, 1996 link
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by Libertarian666 » Sat Nov 09, 2019 5:22 am

Xan wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:54 am
We've had a lot of discussions over the years here about how a balanced budget may not be so good. It seems to cause recessions. The debt of the government is the savings of the private sector. There really isn't a need to "pay back" debt.
The way that a balanced budget causes recessions is the same way as sobering up causes a hangover.
Another similarity is that continuing the original harmful behavior causes the eventual reckoning to be worse.
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by Libertarian666 » Sat Nov 09, 2019 5:24 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:26 am
On the debt, what about the argument about all the interest payments to the private sector?

People have been saying for years that everything implodes if interest rates ever get back up to a "normal" level, because all the govt revenue would be going to service the debt.

So does that mean interest rates will never really rise, until it is an uncontrollable crisis the likes of which we've never seen? And how far can that can be kicked? 2 years, 10 years, 50 years?
Yes, that's what it means. As to how long they can keep it up, who knows? Timing is always the hardest part of predicting a disaster because the trigger is usually something unpredictable.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9422
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by vnatale » Sat Nov 09, 2019 8:26 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:59 pm
“The Republican and Democratic balanced budget proposals are misleading, because they don’t guarantee a balanced budget -- only ‘good intentions.’ I propose an amendment that would limit all federal spending (on-budget and off-budget) to the amount of revenues received in the prior fiscal year.

- Harry Browne, 1996 link
Another pearl of wisdom from Harry Browne!

Thanks for this..

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9422
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by vnatale » Sat Nov 09, 2019 8:27 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 5:22 am
Xan wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:54 am
We've had a lot of discussions over the years here about how a balanced budget may not be so good. It seems to cause recessions. The debt of the government is the savings of the private sector. There really isn't a need to "pay back" debt.
The way that a balanced budget causes recessions is the same way as sobering up causes a hangover.
Another similarity is that continuing the original harmful behavior causes the eventual reckoning to be worse.
Thoroughly agree with your comment, here.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
jacksonm2
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 78
Joined: Fri Sep 27, 2019 5:46 pm

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by jacksonm2 » Sat Nov 09, 2019 4:29 pm

I believe this is an example of Trump quietly doing exactly what he was elected to do.....

https://vdare.com/articles/national-dat ... hing-right
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by ochotona » Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:13 pm

Economic Club of NY today: "Trump rails on Fed, notes other countries have negative rates: ‘Give me some of that money’

What a d*ck. Negative interest rates are a tax on savers, a direct wealth transfer from regular people with money in the bank, elderly people relying on fixed incomes, pensions, annuities. Spoken like the real estate serial loan defaulter scumbag Mafioso he is.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9422
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by vnatale » Tue Nov 12, 2019 2:41 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:13 pm
Economic Club of NY today: "Trump rails on Fed, notes other countries have negative rates: ‘Give me some of that money’

What a d*ck. Negative interest rates are a tax on savers, a direct wealth transfer from regular people with money in the bank, elderly people relying on fixed incomes, pensions, annuities. Spoken like the real estate serial loan defaulter scumbag Mafioso he is.
Our economic system seems to be set up to penalize the saver and reward the profligate!

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:25 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:13 pm
Economic Club of NY today: "Trump rails on Fed, notes other countries have negative rates: ‘Give me some of that money’

What a d*ck. Negative interest rates are a tax on savers, a direct wealth transfer from regular people with money in the bank, elderly people relying on fixed incomes, pensions, annuities. Spoken like the real estate serial loan defaulter scumbag Mafioso he is.
But if you are the government, how great is it to spend money on stuff without having to pay it back? From the state's perspective, negative interest rates might hurt savers in one pocket, but if they're gonna get a new bridge or a few more years of funding social security without having to raise their taxes or whatever, maybe it's a wash.

Negative interests rates are a tax on savers. Who has the most money saved? Rich people. So negative interest rates are kind of sticking it to the 1% right?

Most of us normal people could avoid investing directly in negative-yielding instruments.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
jacksonm2
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 78
Joined: Fri Sep 27, 2019 5:46 pm

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by jacksonm2 » Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:16 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:25 pm
ochotona wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:13 pm
Economic Club of NY today: "Trump rails on Fed, notes other countries have negative rates: ‘Give me some of that money’

What a d*ck. Negative interest rates are a tax on savers, a direct wealth transfer from regular people with money in the bank, elderly people relying on fixed incomes, pensions, annuities. Spoken like the real estate serial loan defaulter scumbag Mafioso he is.
But if you are the government, how great is it to spend money on stuff without having to pay it back? From the state's perspective, negative interest rates might hurt savers in one pocket, but if they're gonna get a new bridge or a few more years of funding social security without having to raise their taxes or whatever, maybe it's a wash.

Negative interests rates are a tax on savers. Who has the most money saved? Rich people. So negative interest rates are kind of sticking it to the 1% right?

Most of us normal people could avoid investing directly in negative-yielding instruments.
My parents lived on SS + interest on their savings (CD's only) throughout their retirement years. Did pretty well actually, especially when CD's were paying 18% during the first few years of their retirement. Given that ROI during the initial years of retirement is a major factor in the success of a portfolio I'd say they were pretty damn lucky.

ZIRP + medical expenses depleted their nest egg and left me with no inheritance whatsoever which I wasn't really expecting. Was just hoping my sister would get something.

So what will NIRP do to seniors (I am one but I use the PP so it doesn't worry me)?
WiseOne
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2692
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2022 11:08 am

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by WiseOne » Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:47 pm

I imagine that the stock market would go wild. People would switch from cash to stocks for the (non-negative) dividends. This kinda did happen after 2009....dividend stocks have been bid up to absurd P/E ratios. Also, holders of long bonds whose price goes through the roof when the interest rates drop would rejoice. I expect gold would tank.

I don't get why Trump is still calling for negative interest rates when the economy and stock market are both looking GOOD. That is just bizarre. Why would the Fed reduce interest rates in this scenario?
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by dualstow » Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:53 pm

He might not be the smartest guy, WiseOne.
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Nov 12, 2019 6:53 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:47 pm
I imagine that the stock market would go wild. People would switch from cash to stocks for the (non-negative) dividends. This kinda did happen after 2009....dividend stocks have been bid up to absurd P/E ratios. Also, holders of long bonds whose price goes through the roof when the interest rates drop would rejoice. I expect gold would tank.

I don't get why Trump is still calling for negative interest rates when the economy and stock market are both looking GOOD. That is just bizarre. Why would the Fed reduce interest rates in this scenario?
If enough people bid down the interest rate because they think the world is becoming deflationary, you would eventually progress past 0% and get into negative rates. People would be asking the government to take their $1,000 and give them back $995, instead of the $990 it would have deflated to for some reason. If the market (people) thought this was plausible, it would be a rational movement towards negative rates. I don't think this is the case, so it must be:

The government sets the interest rate in the negative by fiat. Since people like you and me don't have to buy negative-rate instruments if we don't think they'll "beat" deflation, we can skip them. But big financial companies and corporations do seem to have to use them since AFAIK you can't open a checking account with $100 billion in it. Therefore, they're a form of corporate taxation, since the government can take their free loan and do whatever with it, then give back less money. But in any case, once people find a way out of giving the government money (they stop buying negative bonds), it will exert market pressure on interest rates upward. Or they could resist those market signals and wind up with no deficit, since nobody will be lending them money ^-^

Trump's logic seems to be that since the US is the entity that everyone in the world wants to lend money to, we should be able to offer the lowest interest rate. Since other countries who are worse borrowers than us are able to borrow at lower interest rates, and some are able to borrow take at negative rates, we should be even more negative, which should let us expend resources as if lenders givers were simply giving them to us.

So, it's kind of a kink in the hose for us normal people who are used to Treasuries, but you can still loan money to other entities and get a return on it. Pretty much what you said. There is no economic law that says we "deserve" a risk-free return. Marc Andreesen wrote an article about that a while ago, but I haven't been able to find it again (he might have deleted it?). Anyways, that's kinda how I see it.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
boglerdude
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1313
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:40 am
Contact:

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by boglerdude » Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:59 pm

The trumpsters here are goldbugs right? So how is wanting to print more money (ie lower rates) a good thing. He appears to have no interest in "sound money" or shrinking the power of government by taking away the printing press. Its much harder to start wars if you cant print the money for them
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:00 am

Yes, I guess most of my post was just thinking out loud. The third paragraph is the important one, because IIRC, Trump has actually said that's the reason we should "have" negative interest rates. And it makes sense when you look at it from the government's perspective, as opposed to making sense only if you believe he's pushing for it just to be a dick.

As far as gold would do in that scenario, I lean more to tech's side than WiseOnes. Stocks, real estate, and other investments like would get bid down to insanely low levels. Rich people in foreign countries would probably invest more in their own countries, too. But gold would go up, since people would still want a safe place to stash their money that can't burn down or go bankrupt.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
WiseOne
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2692
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2022 11:08 am

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by WiseOne » Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:21 am

I guess it's a question of whether the tail is wagging the dog. Negative interest rates would normally occur in a deflationary economy, in which gold would likely do poorly. But, Trump doesn't seem to be pushing negative rates for that reason. Pushing interest rates that far below inflation...you're right, that could result in gold skyrocketing. If that's the case though, why isn't that happening in Germany? Their inflation rate is 1.4%, not far below ours, yet their long bonds are hovering around 0% yield.

Still think a lot of people would switch not to gold, but to dividend stocks thus pushing up those prices. I remember seeing a lot of blogs promoting dividend stocks after 2009.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by dualstow » Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:11 am

MangoMan wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:42 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:53 pm
He might not be the smartest guy, WiseOne.
Au contraire. And I think Kriegs is over thinking it. To me it's simple. As Bill Clinton famously said, "It's the economy, stupid." If the market tanks between now and the election, it makes Trump's reelection prospects more difficult. How do you goose the economy and insure a stock market rally? Lower interest rates. Trump knows this, and if he can talk the Fed into doing it, the economic reaction will make him look really good right before the vote.
I guess.
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by dualstow » Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:43 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:34 pm
Disagree on gold: it would go to the moon.
Tech, maybe six months ago, you asked what specifically I didn’t like about Trump’s actions or policies (not words), and I’ve certainly been taking my time to supply more than a few. There are some that actions and policies i like.

But, it’s time to add two more glaring problems to the list:
ALLOWING TURKEY TO MASSACRE KURDS // if I didn’t mention it before
WITNESS INTIMIDATION. // fairly fresh, of course

*Never mind the moon quote. I just wanted a quote in your notifications.
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by dualstow » Sun Nov 17, 2019 6:51 pm

I started this thread with Martin Indyk’s attack on Trump’s Mideast policy, from Foreign Affairs.

Here’s an excerpt of the opposing opinion from Michael Doran ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Scott_Doran ), from the same issue.
...as the Palestinians have remained impoverished wards of the international community, with threats of terror their chief negotiating tool. Most Arab states moved on long ago. They now treat Israel as a normal player in the eternal great game of regional power balancing. So now has the Trump administration. And for that, it has been excoriated.

The administration’s approach is a disaster, critics say, because it concedes so much to Israel upfront that the Palestinians will never agree to negotiate. The critics are correct about the unlikely prospects for a deal anytime soon. But that makes the Trump administration different from its predecessors how? U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry squandered more than a year of the Obama administration trying in vain to jump-start peace talks, a quixotic effort that even his own negotiators knew would not succeed. Is that the benchmark against which Trump is to be judged? If so, he will end up failing a lot more cheaply.
Hmm.
(link, paywalled though https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... -americans)
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

Post by dualstow » Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:43 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 6:57 pm
The beef between Turkey and the Kurds is none of our business. Those people have been killing each other for centuries, and getting in the middle of that is a certain recipe for disaster.

Ok, but don’t you think we got in the Kurds’ business long enough to receive help from them, so that we should help them back instead of screwing them over and leaving them to be slaughtered? A simple this for that or what do they call it? Quid pro quo.

As for "witness intimidation", did you know that the witness would never have known about the "mean tweet" during her testimony if Schiff hadn't read it to her.
I did not and do not know that. Trump doesn’t tweet for his own consumption. When the President tweets about you, one is going to hear about it. I only remember her speaking about the torment in the past tense, and in plural “days.”
Simonjester wrote: i agree we should help them ..but..
there is more than one way to support the kurds. Boots on the ground may be the go to solution for those with a vested interest in the perma-war state, just not necessarily the best solution for Americans or the Kurds.
RIP Marcello Gandini
Post Reply