Signatures

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Smith1776
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Re: Signatures

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:23 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:28 pm
While Bogleheads focus on parroting Buffett’s comments about gold — I’m not trashing them — they should be paying attention to how gold moves relative to the dollar.
What really gets me is when no one on that forums sees the obvious logical fallacy in Buffett's argument.

Buffett presents a binary choice between all the productive farmland and something like 7 Exxon Mobils versus a block of gold. He then makes the obvious choice of saying the productive assets are the clear choice.

Well, duh.

But in the real world investors don't have a binary choice between stocks and gold. There's an infinite gradation between 100/0 and 0/100. Buffett committed the logical sin of the black-or-white fallacy -- a well known flaw that even a first year philosophy major should have been able to detect.

I honestly expected a stronger argument from someone as smart as him.
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technovelist
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Re: Signatures

Post by technovelist » Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:03 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:23 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:28 pm
While Bogleheads focus on parroting Buffett’s comments about gold — I’m not trashing them — they should be paying attention to how gold moves relative to the dollar.
What really gets me is when no one on that forums sees the obvious logical fallacy in Buffett's argument.

Buffett presents a binary choice between all the productive farmland and something like 7 Exxon Mobils versus a block of gold. He then makes the obvious choice of saying the productive assets are the clear choice.

Well, duh.

But in the real world investors don't have a binary choice between stocks and gold. There's an infinite gradation between 100/0 and 0/100. Buffett committed the logical sin of the black-or-white fallacy -- a well known flaw that even a first year philosophy major should have been able to detect.

I honestly expected a stronger argument from someone as smart as him.
Yes, that is an elementary logical fallacy: no one chooses between all the gold in the world and all the diamonds in the world either. There's this thing called "marginal utility".

But he doesn't need good arguments when people treat him as a guru.
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Re: Signatures

Post by Mark Leavy » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:41 pm

dualstow - congrats on the kombucha!
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dualstow
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Re: Signatures

Post by dualstow » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:12 pm

Mark Leavy wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:41 pm
dualstow - congrats on the kombucha!
Thanks! The plain is delicious and I’ve got a few bottles in the cupboard attaining various flavors.
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