Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

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ochotona
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by ochotona » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:17 pm

90 min drive from me:

A Texas A&M University student "may have a possible case" of coronavirus, university officials said Thursday.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:45 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:05 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:56 am
ochotona wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:50 am
This could a black swan or the black swan for financial markets
If people are already thinking about it and perhaps reacting to it, how can it be a black swan?
I don't know what you're talking about... Invisible Swan? Of course people are reacting - that's the point. It came out of nowhere in days, and they're reacting
I mean, if a black swan is an unforeseen, unprecedented event, this isn’t one.
i’ll explain tomorrow. My typing is keeping my wife awake.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:14 am

The wiki page on the Black Swan concept is really bad. I was hoping to cite some examples of past events that are generally agreed upon as black swans.
Instead, all I can do is say that this coronavirus is still small compared to the flu. These kinds of outbreaks have happened from time to time, and so far what’s new is merely pecific type (strain?) The markets have largely shrugged it off.

It is scary, of course. I’ve got relatives who have always lived in Wuhan, and a kind-of relative from Taiwan who is working there now. They’re really overstretched there, as you’ve heard on the news. Not all doctors have proper masks.

I’m just trying to get a handle on what your definition of black swan is, or what would have to happen. For me, this would have to really become massive, quickly, and shake the global economy to its core. I don’t see that happening (which, by definition, would make it a black swan).

You?
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by Mountaineer » Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:16 am

I wonder if the name of this new virus has hurt beer sales yet? There are probably some who think the beer and the virus are related. ;)

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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by sophie » Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:08 pm

Looks like there is now a second U.S. case (in Chicago). Both cases so far have been travelers to Yuhan, China. They had many direct contacts after they returned, but no one else has become sick - so far. Give it another week to be sure we are past the incubation period, but that might be good news that the virus doesn't transmit readily person to person. We'll see...
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:17 pm

Well Ocho, I was at lunch with a couple friends, both heavily into investing (but wouldn't touch the pp with 10-foot pool. I peeked at the market at 130p and saw a WSJ headline about the market tanking on the virus. O0 Thought of you.
Mountaineer wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:16 am
I wonder if the name of this new virus has hurt beer sales yet? There are probably some who think the beer and the virus are related. ;)

https://www.ispot.tv/ad/w0gx/corona-extra-want
I hadn't even thought of that! Corona means crown. I always think of the sun, or a king's coronation.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by ochotona » Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:59 pm

Image
Oh, yummy. Dig in!

This is one case where traditional Buddhist vegetarian cuisine could've been a lifesaver. The Buddhists would claim all of this animal-linked disease is karma (payback) for killing billions and billions of animals over human history.

Image
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:26 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:59 pm
This is one case where traditional Buddhist vegetarian cuisine could've been a lifesaver. The Buddhists would claim all of this animal-linked disease is karma (payback) for killing billions and billions of animals over human history.
Do you believe in evolution? Our near cousins, the chimpanzees, were once thought to be vegetarians until they were witnessed killing for meat. We are animals, too. At what point were we supposed to make the switch from meat-eating cavemen to enlightened vegetarians?

I do think being a “meat reducer” can be a good idea for many reasons, but this karma business...
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by shekels » Sat Jan 25, 2020 9:03 am

China built a lab to study SARS and Ebola in Wuhan
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... enter.html
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:30 pm

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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Jan 25, 2020 6:42 pm

shekels wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 9:03 am
China built a lab to study SARS and Ebola in Wuhan
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... enter.html
In 1978, at the University of Birmingham in England, a medical photographer named Janet Parker went home from work early one afternoon in late summer complaining of a blinding headache. Soon she was very ill indeed- fevered, delirious, and covered in pustules. She had contracted smallpox via an air duct from a lab one floor below her office. There, a virologist named Henry Bedson had been studying one of the last smallpox samples on Earth still allowed for research. He was frantically working against a deadline before his own stocks were to be destroyed and evidently grew careless in keeping them safe. Poor Janet Parker died about two weeks after being exposed and in so doing became the last person on Earth to be killed by smallpox. She had actually been vaccinated against the disease 12 years earlier, but smallpox vaccine doesn't last. When Bedson learned that smallpox had escaped from his lab and killed an innocent person, he went out to his garden shed and committed suicide, so in a sense he was smallpox's last victim. The hospital ward on which Parker was treated was sealed off for 5 years.
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There are several thousand nearly complete viral genomes integrated into the human genome, most now inert or missing a crucial gene. These account for 1.3% of the entire genome. That may not sound like much, but 'proper' genes account for only 3%. If you think being descended from apes is bad for your self-esteem, then get used to the idea that you are also descended from viruses.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Jan 25, 2020 6:46 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:45 pm
I mean, if a black swan is an unforeseen, unprecedented event, this isn’t one.
I think ocho's point is that, even a few weeks ago, nobody saw a pandemic virus erupting from China. So if it causes massive economic damage, then it would be a Black Swan.

It's not that people couldn't conceive of a pandemic virus, just that they weren't prepared for it, or expecting it, now. Just like people could conceive of a housing market crash caused by bad loans/foreclosures, but they didn't see it until it was too late.

At any rate, this is one of those things that you'll learn about even if you aren't using any news. One of my coworkers has been giving running updates about how the pictures coming out of China look like scenes from Resident Evil.
There are several thousand nearly complete viral genomes integrated into the human genome, most now inert or missing a crucial gene. These account for 1.3% of the entire genome. That may not sound like much, but 'proper' genes account for only 3%. If you think being descended from apes is bad for your self-esteem, then get used to the idea that you are also descended from viruses.
Ridley, Genome
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