Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

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ochotona
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by ochotona » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:17 pm

90 min drive from me:

A Texas A&M University student "may have a possible case" of coronavirus, university officials said Thursday.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:45 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:05 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:56 am
ochotona wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:50 am
This could a black swan or the black swan for financial markets
If people are already thinking about it and perhaps reacting to it, how can it be a black swan?
I don't know what you're talking about... Invisible Swan? Of course people are reacting - that's the point. It came out of nowhere in days, and they're reacting
I mean, if a black swan is an unforeseen, unprecedented event, this isn’t one.
i’ll explain tomorrow. My typing is keeping my wife awake.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:14 am

The wiki page on the Black Swan concept is really bad. I was hoping to cite some examples of past events that are generally agreed upon as black swans.
Instead, all I can do is say that this coronavirus is still small compared to the flu. These kinds of outbreaks have happened from time to time, and so far what’s new is merely pecific type (strain?) The markets have largely shrugged it off.

It is scary, of course. I’ve got relatives who have always lived in Wuhan, and a kind-of relative from Taiwan who is working there now. They’re really overstretched there, as you’ve heard on the news. Not all doctors have proper masks.

I’m just trying to get a handle on what your definition of black swan is, or what would have to happen. For me, this would have to really become massive, quickly, and shake the global economy to its core. I don’t see that happening (which, by definition, would make it a black swan).

You?
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by Mountaineer » Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:16 am

I wonder if the name of this new virus has hurt beer sales yet? There are probably some who think the beer and the virus are related. ;)

https://www.ispot.tv/ad/w0gx/corona-extra-want
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by WiseOne » Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:08 pm

Looks like there is now a second U.S. case (in Chicago). Both cases so far have been travelers to Yuhan, China. They had many direct contacts after they returned, but no one else has become sick - so far. Give it another week to be sure we are past the incubation period, but that might be good news that the virus doesn't transmit readily person to person. We'll see...
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:17 pm

Well Ocho, I was at lunch with a couple friends, both heavily into investing (but wouldn't touch the pp with 10-foot pool. I peeked at the market at 130p and saw a WSJ headline about the market tanking on the virus. O0 Thought of you.
Mountaineer wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:16 am
I wonder if the name of this new virus has hurt beer sales yet? There are probably some who think the beer and the virus are related. ;)

https://www.ispot.tv/ad/w0gx/corona-extra-want
I hadn't even thought of that! Corona means crown. I always think of the sun, or a king's coronation.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by ochotona » Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:59 pm

Image
Oh, yummy. Dig in!

This is one case where traditional Buddhist vegetarian cuisine could've been a lifesaver. The Buddhists would claim all of this animal-linked disease is karma (payback) for killing billions and billions of animals over human history.

Image
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:26 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:59 pm
This is one case where traditional Buddhist vegetarian cuisine could've been a lifesaver. The Buddhists would claim all of this animal-linked disease is karma (payback) for killing billions and billions of animals over human history.
Do you believe in evolution? Our near cousins, the chimpanzees, were once thought to be vegetarians until they were witnessed killing for meat. We are animals, too. At what point were we supposed to make the switch from meat-eating cavemen to enlightened vegetarians?

I do think being a “meat reducer” can be a good idea for many reasons, but this karma business...
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by shekels » Sat Jan 25, 2020 9:03 am

China built a lab to study SARS and Ebola in Wuhan
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... enter.html
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:30 pm

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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Jan 25, 2020 6:42 pm

shekels wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 9:03 am
China built a lab to study SARS and Ebola in Wuhan
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... enter.html
In 1978, at the University of Birmingham in England, a medical photographer named Janet Parker went home from work early one afternoon in late summer complaining of a blinding headache. Soon she was very ill indeed- fevered, delirious, and covered in pustules. She had contracted smallpox via an air duct from a lab one floor below her office. There, a virologist named Henry Bedson had been studying one of the last smallpox samples on Earth still allowed for research. He was frantically working against a deadline before his own stocks were to be destroyed and evidently grew careless in keeping them safe. Poor Janet Parker died about two weeks after being exposed and in so doing became the last person on Earth to be killed by smallpox. She had actually been vaccinated against the disease 12 years earlier, but smallpox vaccine doesn't last. When Bedson learned that smallpox had escaped from his lab and killed an innocent person, he went out to his garden shed and committed suicide, so in a sense he was smallpox's last victim. The hospital ward on which Parker was treated was sealed off for 5 years.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Jan 25, 2020 6:46 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:45 pm
I mean, if a black swan is an unforeseen, unprecedented event, this isn’t one.
I think ocho's point is that, even a few weeks ago, nobody saw a pandemic virus erupting from China. So if it causes massive economic damage, then it would be a Black Swan.

It's not that people couldn't conceive of a pandemic virus, just that they weren't prepared for it, or expecting it, now. Just like people could conceive of a housing market crash caused by bad loans/foreclosures, but they didn't see it until it was too late.

At any rate, this is one of those things that you'll learn about even if you aren't using any news. One of my coworkers has been giving running updates about how the pictures coming out of China look like scenes from Resident Evil.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by dualstow » Sat Jan 25, 2020 8:20 pm

Yup, I guess so. Earlier I mentioned that “It would have to get massive, quickly...”

We’ve all seen too many zombie movies and films with government employees in HAZMAT suits. O0
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by Mountaineer » Sun Jan 26, 2020 5:46 am

It is important to keep in mind facts about virus deaths vs. the current media sensational commentary (let's hope the current outbreak deaths remain relatively small).

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/flu.htm 6515 influenza deaths in the US in 2017

https://heavy.com/news/2020/01/wuhan-co ... rs-deaths/ 41 fatalities so far, all in China

https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html 774 SARS deaths worldwide
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:06 am

Mountaineer, it's not like you to let a chance to mention the Book of Revelations and pale horsemen and that slide by the wayside.

Are you all right?
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by Mountaineer » Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:13 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:06 am
Mountaineer, it's not like you to let a chance to mention the Book of Revelations and pale horsemen and that slide by the wayside.

Are you all right?
"

Kriegs, thanks for your concern but I thought you knew me better. :) I'm not one of those "Left Behind" series of books Christians. I just go by what Scripture says and try not to speculate about what is not said. For example, see Matthew 24 or Mark 13 (and Rev 19 - mentioned to scratch Krieg's itch ;) ). Beware, there are lots of false prophets, including the idol of self, all sponsored by SATAN* out there vying for your allegiance. No one knows when the end will come, only the Father. Best advice is to be ready at all times for the Last Day; kind of like the philosophy of the PP - be ready no matter what. The choice is yours to believe that Jesus is "THE way, THE truth, and THE life" O0 or that it's all a big scam >:D [oops, should not have alluded to impeachment theatrics in a thread about matters of eternal significance].

* https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... en-of-2020
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by dualstow » Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:55 am

Komal Sri-Kumar (@SriKGlobal) just addressed people talking about this in the context of being a black swan, on cnbc. He said there are always five or so black swans floating around, waiting to happen, and that if the virus didn’t exist, it would be something else. Kim Jong-eun, etc. I guess he feels that the markets were/are ready to fall.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by dualstow » Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:44 pm

Possible coronavirus case at Philadelphia’s Penn Charter School, as travelers from China are urged to report any symptoms
https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronav ... 00127.html
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:11 pm

We had a confirmed case here in Vancouver, BC as of yesterday. SO many Chinese people made the trip here for Chinese New Year. I'm sure there's going to be a massive flare up in the coming weeks. The really scary thing is the incubation period and the contagiousness when asymptomatic.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by dualstow » Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:25 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:11 pm
We had a confirmed case here in Vancouver, BC as of yesterday. SO many Chinese people made the trip here for Chinese New Year. I'm sure there's going to be a massive flare up in the coming weeks. The really scary thing is the incubation period and the contagiousness when asymptomatic.
Are you doing anything differently?
I'd probably be more reluctant to fly this season, but I have no travel plans anyway.
I plan to eat in Chinatown next week, although I don't know if my wife will join.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:02 am

Corona Virus effect on the market: 1 day.

I know it's too early to really say that, but I wonder if anything can hold people's attention for more than 24 hours anymore.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by dualstow » Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:05 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:02 am
Corona Virus effect on the market: 1 day.

I know it's too early to really say that, but I wonder if anything can hold people's attention for more than 24 hours anymore.
Ha. Not much.
Just a minute ago, though, while you were posting, cnbc announced that they're discussing travel restrictions in the White House.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by Mountaineer » Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:41 am

This current Wuhan coronavirus may be worse than I thought. This is a very interesting discussion on the topic. If you wish to jump straight to the main topic, it begins approximately 18 minutes in. As always, I am particularly interested in what WiseOne thinks about it (if you have the time or desire to listen to the podcast, WiseOne) in addition to everyone else.

"In episode ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY Wade and Mike invite Wisconsin Lutheran College’s disease expert, Dr. James Henkel, back onto the show. This is the second time Dr. Henkel has come onto the podcast. We invite you to listen to his previous visit way back on Episode 23, entitled The Guys Get Disease (and if you haven’t listened to that episode, do yourself the favor of giving it a listen, it’s a fun one). This time the guys talk viruses and pandemics."

https://www.letthebirdfly.com/2020/01/2 ... -go-viral/
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by Tortoise » Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:35 pm

Financial news headlines over the past few days:

Stock market drops: "Markets plummet on coronavirus fears"
Stock market rises: "Markets rally on hopes that coronavirus spread will subside"

::)
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Re: Wuhan, China Corona Virus 2020

Post by WiseOne » Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:43 pm

I've been getting regular updates from my medical center. I'll pass on anything interesting...so far it's just kind of "this is what to do if you see a patient who might have the virus" stuff.

No time today to plow through an 18 minute video, but...all depended on whether the virus can be transmitted person to person, and how easily it transmits. Measles and the flu are super-transmitters, so they're the paragons of epidemic-prone bugs. It looked to me, based on the reported cases, that if this virus is transmitted person to person, it doesn't do so all that readily. But, the incubation period is still in question....figured we'd have to wait a week or two to know for certain.

There has now been a confirmed case of human to human transmission, but this tells me two things. First, yes it can be transmitted to people in close contact (husband of a person who carried the disease back from China). But second, it is looking like it takes more than casual contact for transmission to occur. The person who returned from China was sitting on a plane with other passengers for hours, using the restroom, touching common areas like overhead bins, and then walking through airports etc. None of that has (so far) caused any new cases in the U.S.

So, we are not looking at a 1918-like pandemic, where all it took was walking down a street near a person incubating the virus to get you sick. Still don't know enough to judge severity other than that, though.
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