Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:38 pm
I have these questions, from a very much slanting toward what the hell are we doing?
—world loses 150k people a day normally. If we are conservative and say this has been going on for 60 days, is that adding 1666 deaths a day to that total?
—if adding, that is only a 1% increase. Have we gone overboard?
—if some portion would have likely died of some other comorbidity, and were already in the hospital, should they be counted as CV deaths?
—all estimates are so far wildly too high, but people are terrified of walking those down. Why?
—there likely will be another bump up when we start going back to normal, and people are terrified of that. Are you?
—There won’t be a real vaccine, will there? More instead like a flu shot which will be some percent effective? These types of viruses mutate too much for a vaccine?
I doubt I am the most qualified to answer, but...
The response has varied from country to country so let's just take the US. According to the CDC website, we lose just under 8,000 people each day due to all causes. Even with social distancing, about 2,000 people have been dying each day over the last few days. The measures we have taken have almost certainly had a positive effect in terms of reducing the number of daily CV deaths. If we ignore comorbidity, that is an increase of about 25% per day which is a lot, especially from a single cause.
I am concerned about what will happen when we all start having a lot more human contact but I doubt that we are going completely back to normal, at least over the next few months. I think densities will continue to be limited in public places for a long time. I would not be surprise, for example, if schools start back with an every second day schedule so that they only have half as many kids each day. Maybe NBA games will have 2,000 fans at first instead of 20,000. But I think we are in for a lot of this stuff until we strike the right balance. In addition to having fewer contacts, I think the contacts we do have will be quite different for a while. People are unlikely to shake hands much or hug one another. We will likely be wearing a lot of face masks. People who have a persistent cough will be shunned or strongly urged to stay home. Nursing home visits will be extremely limited, and so on. So I think the return to normal will be in fits and starts.
I am concerned for myself when I start having more human contact because I am 61 and I have asthma. But I am not so scared that I would just stay at home. I keep thinking about how Londoners who didn't get killed or injured by German bombs started to feel more secure, not less so.... like they were invincible. I think a lot of people will start to have that feeling about CV for whatever reason.
Anyway, those are just a few thoughts.