Coronavirus General Discussion

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Libertarian666
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:02 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:26 am
I wonder if this general difference in perspective towards health authorities is common for people chatting across the 49th parallel. It's interesting that I don't see that level of cynicism from anyone here locally. Then again, here in B.C (and Canada generally) our Coronavirus response seems to have been more effective and responsible on the part of the health authorities compared to the U.S. If I were a U.S. citizen I'd probably be much more skeptical too.
Canadians are known to be more respectful of authority than Americans.
You never even fought for your independence from Britain, remember? >:D
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:08 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:02 am
Canadians are known to be more respectful of authority than Americans.
You never even fought for your independence from Britain, remember? >:D
We only get angry when we're low on maple syrup.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:58 am

pug,

I know you don't necessarily like Priztker (gov of IL) but IL has some of the best declining numbers in the country. What do you attribute that to other than consistent messaging on wearing masks and distancing and being a bit slower opening up?

Seems he would deserve some credit here?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:57 am

Having been out and about a lot in NYC recently....

Mask wearing is consistent in "gentrified" (read: predominantly white/Asian, upper or upper-middle class) neighborhoods. If you are out without one, you get dirty looks and comments.

In low-income neighborhoods (vast majority black and Hispanic) few people wear masks. The ones that do are mostly wearing it under their noses or just hanging below their chins. When I see low income people on my street (e.g. delivery guys) they are almost never wearing masks. They wear them while working in the grocery because their employers make them do it, but in stores in minority neighborhoods you don't see workers wearing masks.

This might seem like it correlates with higher COVID infection rates in minority communities, but those kinds of observational studies are meaningless because of the large number of confounds (e.g. differences in risk factors). The important observation, to me, is that there are large pockets of non-mask wearing people in this city, and yet COVID new case rates have been vanishingly small for weeks now. Seems to me there's not really a lot of evidence for mask wearing as an effective prevention device - but neither is there evidence against except what I just noted.

I wear a mask if going into a store or other indoor public place. If outdoors I only put it on if I'm within 6 feet of someone - and mainly as a courtesy to them. This is consistent with the governor's order so I'm within the law here, and it seems a good compromise.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pmward » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:37 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:12 pm
I attribute the declining numbers to the fact that it took hold here first, just like in NYC, and is now burning out, while areas like AZ, FL, TX, etc that didn't get hit hard early are now having their turn. And even in those states, hospitalizations are declining.
Not in AZ they aren't. Hospitalizations have been sky rocketing, as has new cases, new deaths, and the rate of positive tests. The only thing going down, ironically, is the number of tests issued per day. There's a reason the very right wing governor put us back on partial lockdown yesterday. The hospital situation here is starting to get really dire. I have a couple friends that are nurses and the things they are sharing on social media about how bad things are in the hospital system here right now are also proof that things are not good under the covers.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:45 pm

I find it amusing that people keep lamenting that mask-wearing has "become so politicized".

How can it be otherwise? There is no hard science with which to prove or disprove that mask-wearing makes a difference in slowing down the spread of Cooties-19. It's basically all guesswork, hunches, speculation, and anecdotal observations.

In the absence of hard science, we have no choice but to fall back on things like personal risk assessment, our level of trust (or lack thereof) in government officials and the media, and the importance of freedom -- things that are clearly shaped by our political views.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pmward » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:26 pm

Worth a read. A historical account of the flu pandemic in 1918-1919 San Francisco, including the same drama we are going through today with the mask and no mask argument.

https://www.influenzaarchive.org/cities ... cisco.html#
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:29 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:37 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:12 pm
I attribute the declining numbers to the fact that it took hold here first, just like in NYC, and is now burning out, while areas like AZ, FL, TX, etc that didn't get hit hard early are now having their turn. And even in those states, hospitalizations are declining.
Not in AZ they aren't. Hospitalizations have been sky rocketing, as has new cases, new deaths, and the rate of positive tests. \
Pmward, you're reading too many mainstream media articles. Arizona's hospitalizations peaked over 2 weeks ago. WSJ reported they've been heading down. I can't find the article, but here's the webpage showing daily hospitalizations - which is the best measure since case #s are strongly dependent on test availability:

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epid ... /index.php
AZ daily hosp.png
AZ daily hosp.png (60.37 KiB) Viewed 7873 times

There was a "surge" yes, but...I'm not impressed. Compare this to what we had here in NYC (and note the y axis in this figure compared to the last one).

NYC hosp.png
NYC hosp.png (50.76 KiB) Viewed 7873 times

There's a little land called "actual numbers" that you really should visit one of these days. Alas, members of the media don't seem to be familiar with the place.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pmward » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:14 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:29 pm
pmward wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:37 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:12 pm
I attribute the declining numbers to the fact that it took hold here first, just like in NYC, and is now burning out, while areas like AZ, FL, TX, etc that didn't get hit hard early are now having their turn. And even in those states, hospitalizations are declining.
Not in AZ they aren't. Hospitalizations have been sky rocketing, as has new cases, new deaths, and the rate of positive tests. \
Pmward, you're reading too many mainstream media articles. Arizona's hospitalizations peaked over 2 weeks ago. WSJ reported they've been heading down. I can't find the article, but here's the webpage showing daily hospitalizations - which is the best measure since case #s are strongly dependent on test availability:

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epid ... /index.php

AZ daily hosp.png


There was a "surge" yes, but...I'm not impressed. Compare this to what we had here in NYC (and note the y axis in this figure compared to the last one).


NYC hosp.png


There's a little land called "actual numbers" that you really should visit one of these days. Alas, members of the media don't seem to be familiar with the place.


Nice job trying to cherry pick data. But no. We have less than 200 ICU beds available now, and that's after they activated overflow plans over the last week.


Screen Shot 2020-06-30 at 3.13.22 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-06-30 at 3.13.22 PM.png (167.48 KiB) Viewed 7856 times
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:02 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:29 pm

There's a little land called "actual numbers" that you really should visit one of these days.
LOLOLOL. ;D
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:45 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:14 pm
Nice job trying to cherry pick data. But no. We have less than 200 ICU beds available now, and that's after they activated overflow plans over the last week.

Screen Shot 2020-06-30 at 3.13.22 PM.png
For proper context, do we know what that same graph looked like this time last year, and the year before that? I.e., how do we know whether that ICU capacity graph is typical, somewhat atypical, or extremely atypical?

For what it's worth, I saw a recent email thread (forwarded to me by my retired physician dad) about ICU capacity in which a PACU nurse pointed out that her medical center runs its ICUs at full or near-full capacity "virtually all the time." It backs up the ER and bleeds into the PACU, which then has to hold surgical patients for many hours, sometimes entire nights and days, awaiting ICU beds. She said she's been told many hospitals do the same thing. Just something to consider.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:59 pm

This one's for you, Pug! It's an article written by a dental researcher back in 2016 that argues that face masks are essentially worthless for the purpose of protecting dental personnel from airborne pathogens:

Why Face Masks Don’t Work: A Revealing Review
Conclusions
The primary reason for mandating the wearing of face masks is to protect dental personnel from airborne pathogens. This review has established that face masks are incapable of providing such a level of protection. Unless the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, national and provincial dental associations and regulatory agencies publically admit this fact, they will be guilty of perpetuating a myth which will be a disservice to the dental profession and its patients. It would be beneficial if, as a consequence of the review, all present infection control recommendations were subjected to the same rigorous testing as any new clinical intervention. Professional associations and governing bodies must ensure the clinical efficacy of quality improvement procedures prior to them being mandated. It is heartening to know that such a trend is gaining a momentum which might reveal the inadequacies of other long held dental infection control assumptions. Surely, the hallmark of a mature profession is one which permits new evidence to trump established beliefs. In 1910, Dr. C. Chapin, a public health pioneer, summarized this idea by stating, “We should not be ashamed to change our methods; rather, we should be ashamed not to do so.” Until this occurs, as this review has revealed, dentists have nothing to fear by unmasking.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Hal » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:35 pm

$11,000 fines now.....

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... -live-news

Reminds me of a visiting Police Chief from a nearby country who suggested shooting people who exceeded the speed limit to keep the road deaths down :o
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:59 am

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:45 pm
pmward wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:14 pm
Nice job trying to cherry pick data. But no. We have less than 200 ICU beds available now, and that's after they activated overflow plans over the last week.

Screen Shot 2020-06-30 at 3.13.22 PM.png
For proper context, do we know what that same graph looked like this time last year, and the year before that? I.e., how do we know whether that ICU capacity graph is typical, somewhat atypical, or extremely atypical?

For what it's worth, I saw a recent email thread (forwarded to me by my retired physician dad) about ICU capacity in which a PACU nurse pointed out that her medical center runs its ICUs at full or near-full capacity "virtually all the time." It backs up the ER and bleeds into the PACU, which then has to hold surgical patients for many hours, sometimes entire nights and days, awaiting ICU beds. She said she's been told many hospitals do the same thing. Just something to consider.
Hospitals don't like empty beds. They like money, and you don't get that from having empty beds. They always try to operate as close to full capacity as possible - mine is almost always above 95%, and if it drops lower we start getting nastygrams about how we have become too lazy and need to find reasons to admit people. Think I posted about this before.

The 60-70% capacity numbers at the start of pp4me's pmward's graph is due to cancelling elective procedures. That led to some seriously hurting hospitals who ended up having to furlough or lay off people as a result. The capacity at the end of pp4me's graph is still probably below normal for these hospitals.

pp4me pmward if you are going to call the daily hospitalization numbers (i.e. what is widely agreed on as the most reliable statistic for the purpose of guiding policy) "cherry-picking" then I just don't know what to say. Hopefully we who are devotees of reality and hard data can help calm some of your media-induced panic. Here's something for you to consider: if there are 200 ICU beds available but no more than 20 new COVID hospitalizations a day of which ICU beds would be needed by maybe a third of those (i.e. where AZ is at right now), it'll take 20 days to fill up the ICUs. The average length of stay in an ICU is shorter than that. Therefore it's quite unlikely the state will hit its ICU capacity.
Last edited by sophie on Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:50 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:20 am

WiseOne wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:59 am
Tortoise wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:45 pm
For what it's worth, I saw a recent email thread (forwarded to me by my retired physician dad) about ICU capacity in which a PACU nurse pointed out that her medical center runs its ICUs at full or near-full capacity "virtually all the time." It backs up the ER and bleeds into the PACU, which then has to hold surgical patients for many hours, sometimes entire nights and days, awaiting ICU beds. She said she's been told many hospitals do the same thing. Just something to consider.
Hospitals don't like empty beds. They like money, and you don't get that from having empty beds. They always try to operate as close to full capacity as possible - mine is almost always above 95%, and if it drops lower we start getting nastygrams about how we have become too lazy and need to find reasons to admit people. Think I posted about this before.

The 60-70% capacity numbers at the start of pp4me's graph is due to cancelling elective procedures. That led to some seriously hurting hospitals who ended up having to furlough or lay off people as a result. The capacity at the end of pp4me's graph is still probably below normal for these hospitals.
You mean pmward.

By the way, knowing about how hospitals/ICUs operate is valuable information, so thanks.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:51 am

Apologies to pp4me! Fixed.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:31 am

WiseOne wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:51 am
Apologies to pp4me! Fixed.
Took me a while to figure out what for.

The Texas Lt. Gov was on Fox last night and he said the increase in ICU usage was mostly due to the number of people who had delayed going to the hospital due to Covid fears and were now coming in with dire emergencies. I think the number he quoted was about only 20% due to Covid. In addition to the media looking for any way they can to shut things back down he also had some choice words for Dr. Fauci, basically telling him to mind his own business and leave Texas alone.

On the home front, my daughter in Colorado called me last night and told me that both she and my son, ages 43 and 45 had both gotten Covid. Neither got tested but based on the symptoms they were describing, along with the fact another family member had tested positive and exposed others, it sure sounded like Covid to me. Neither had a fever but both described searing pain in their lungs. Fortunately they got over it quickly in only two days. When I told them they were supposed to quarantine for 14 days and inform anyone they had contact with, it was like they had never heard that before. My son actually planned on going back to work the next day.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:31 pm

In local sporting news, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway has announced that the Indy 500 will take place on August 23rd with the stands at 50% capacity.

Tickets are all being reissued. Ticket holders with more than 2 tickets are being guaranteed 50% of their originally allocated seats. They can choose to request more than 50% with some or all possibly being moved to a nearby location, or they can skip this year's race and apply some or all of their tickets as credits for tickets to next year's race.

The 2016 race was attended by 350,000 fans, so 50% would be 175,000 but nobody expects the number to be quite that high (2016 was a special year, the 100th running). Still could be over 100,000 since the grandstands normally seat 235,000. Depends on how many people still want to attend.

I'm still not sure it's really going to happen.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:57 pm

flyingpylon wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:31 pm
In local sporting news, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway has announced that the Indy 500 will take place on August 23rd with the stands at 50% capacity.

Tickets are all being reissued. Ticket holders with more than 2 tickets are being guaranteed 50% of their originally allocated seats. They can choose to request more than 50% with some or all possibly being moved to a nearby location, or they can skip this year's race and apply some or all of their tickets as credits for tickets to next year's race.

The 2016 race was attended by 350,000 fans, so 50% would be 175,000 but nobody expects the number to be quite that high (2016 was a special year, the 100th running). Still could be over 100,000 since the grandstands normally seat 235,000. Depends on how many people still want to attend.

I'm still not sure it's really going to happen.
My wife Susan and I have come up with a plan to replace at least some of the missing sports events.
How about having a league in which all the blue cities compete to see which one can have the highest total of carnage every weekend?
Among other statistics, they could have total injuries (hits) and deaths (runs).
Imagine a competition between the Chicago Shooters and the Minneapolis Looters!
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:08 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:57 pm
My wife Susan and I have come up with a plan to replace at least some of the missing sports events.
How about having a league in which all the blue cities compete to see which one can have the highest total of carnage every weekend?
Among other statistics, they could have total injuries (hits) and deaths (runs).
Imagine a competition between the Chicago Shooters and the Minneapolis Looters!
Not bad! Reminds me of the big fight scene from The Gangs of New York where all the Irish gangs are calling out their names before the brawl.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:13 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:08 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:57 pm
My wife Susan and I have come up with a plan to replace at least some of the missing sports events.
How about having a league in which all the blue cities compete to see which one can have the highest total of carnage every weekend?
Among other statistics, they could have total injuries (hits) and deaths (runs).
Imagine a competition between the Chicago Shooters and the Minneapolis Looters!
Not bad! Reminds me of the big fight scene from The Gangs of New York where all the Irish gangs are calling out their names before the brawl.
The whole league could be secretly sponsored by the FBI, then in a surprise season ending they could all be locked up!
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by boglerdude » Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:17 am

WiseOne wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:59 am
Hospitals don't like empty beds. They like money, and you don't get that from having empty beds. They always try to operate as close to full capacity as possible - mine is almost always above 95%, and if it drops lower we start getting nastygrams about how we have become too lazy and need to find reasons to admit people.
So...fraud?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:31 am

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:45 pm
I find it amusing that people keep lamenting that mask-wearing has "become so politicized".

How can it be otherwise? There is no hard science with which to prove or disprove that mask-wearing makes a difference in slowing down the spread of Cooties-19. It's basically all guesswork, hunches, speculation, and anecdotal observations.

In the absence of hard science, we have no choice but to fall back on things like personal risk assessment, our level of trust (or lack thereof) in government officials and the media, and the importance of freedom -- things that are clearly shaped by our political views.
I think that’s a fair assessment and yet I’m still lamenting. O0
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:34 pm

pp4me wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:31 am
The Texas Lt. Gov was on Fox last night and he said the increase in ICU usage was mostly due to the number of people who had delayed going to the hospital due to Covid fears and were now coming in with dire emergencies. I think the number he quoted was about only 20% due to Covid. In addition to the media looking for any way they can to shut things back down he also had some choice words for Dr. Fauci, basically telling him to mind his own business and leave Texas alone.

On the home front, my daughter in Colorado called me last night and told me that both she and my son, ages 43 and 45 had both gotten Covid. Neither got tested but based on the symptoms they were describing, along with the fact another family member had tested positive and exposed others, it sure sounded like Covid to me. Neither had a fever but both described searing pain in their lungs. Fortunately they got over it quickly in only two days. When I told them they were supposed to quarantine for 14 days and inform anyone they had contact with, it was like they had never heard that before. My son actually planned on going back to work the next day.
Thanks for the report! I'm glad your children are doing better. I'm amazed that despite all the attention paid to lockdowns, the messages about what to do if you're sick or exposed have been super confusing.

The media are lamenting the fact that most of the people getting COVID in the currently-surging states are in the young/not vulnerable group. i.e. what happens every year when the flu goes around. As a result I would expect that the % confirmed cases needing ICU care would be a lot lower than it was here in NY, where nursing homes were hit hard (thanks to the governor's order making them take in COVID cases). So that makes sense - plus, Texas has not cancelled elective procedures, so they can easily create more capacity.

The one big worry is that if Texas and California nursing homes haven't been hit yet, all this may change in a hurry. Instead of wasting effort trying to prevent kids from going to the beach maybe they should be protecting nursing homes. I'd do things like minimize staff contact with patients and require full PPE (and training in how to use it), daily health screening, and regular COVID tests for staff who interact with patients. And recommend that vulnerable people stay home.

Youtube interview with someone I agree with....hint, it's not the news reporter. It's the former UK Supreme Court justice.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFBTrr5VFcM
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:37 pm

You guys ready for Round 2?? :D

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/feds-bu ... Ej6Q30UtrM
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I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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