Coronavirus General Discussion

Other discussions not related to the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2751
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Sun Apr 18, 2021 1:08 am

Bill Maher rants about Covid fear porn (~8 minutes):

https://youtu.be/Qp3gy_CLXho
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:03 pm

So saw the pulmonologist today ....

I started trying to jog and my heart rate shoots up to 150 in two minutes time ..I would see that 35 minutes in to a run as I am ending 3 miles .

She does not think it is a lung issue since we can walk miles and hills and do normal life stuff .

She thinks the covid shrunk the heart muscle back to normal capacity ...

So she wants me to see a cardiologist to confirm that is all it is and it will just take a lot of time to get back .hopefully covid didn’t damage anything..she said the after effects from covid have been so strange in the cases she says and everyone seems to have different crazy stuff happening after
barrett
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1982
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:54 pm

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by barrett » Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:22 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:03 pm
So saw the pulmonologist today ....

I started trying to jog and my heart rate shoots up to 150 in two minutes time ..I would see that 35 minutes in to a run as I am ending 3 miles .

She does not think it is a lung issue since we can walk miles and hills and do normal life stuff .

She thinks the covid shrunk the heart muscle back to normal capacity ...

So she wants me to see a cardiologist to confirm that is all it is and it will just take a lot of time to get back .hopefully covid didn’t damage anything..she said the after effects from covid have been so strange in the cases she says and everyone seems to have different crazy stuff happening after
Damn, that is rough. Do you know what your pre-Covid resting heart rate was? And what about now? You're both a numbers guy and a runner so I am guessing that you have a pretty good idea.

And wouldn't it be the inactivity due to Covid rather than the virus itself that has affected your heart so much?

Sure hope you can get back to your pre-Covid level of health.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:14 pm

We were not at the gyn for 9 months ...within two attempts I was running normal and had a heart rate that was what I always got ...

After covid I can’t run more than 3 minutes or I feel like I can’t catch my breath , so something is different...resting heart rate is pretty much the same ..

Normal daily life if fine , I can walk miles .

But once the pedal goes to the metal there is a problem
pp4me
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1190
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:12 pm

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:06 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:03 pm
She thinks the covid shrunk the heart muscle back to normal capacity ...
Sounds like a weird reaction to a Virus but if it's true it also sounds like COVID might be beneficial to people like you.

I've read that long distance cyclists and marathon runners tend to have an enlarged heart problem due to over exercising the heart muscles and it can be a problem when you start slowing down.

Did a lot of long distance cycling in my day but probably never got to that point - or at least I don't think so. When I get out of breath doing something outside I tend to take it as a good thing and that I'm doing something right that's good for me - as long as it doesn't get too weird.
WiseOne
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2692
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2022 11:08 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:09 pm

Just a few thoughts...you didn't mention being out of breath but could it have something to do with the mask you're wearing? Is it different from the one you had on before? Or did you not use one before?

I also favor the prolonged inactivity (e.g. while sick & quarantined) and time needed for full lung recovery explanations. If you had a significant cardiac problem, the mild increase in heart rate on heavy exertion would not be the only symptom. FWIW. Do get the testing if that would be best for peace of mind.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:13 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:09 pm
Just a few thoughts...you didn't mention being out of breath but could it have something to do with the mask you're wearing? Is it different from the one you had on before? Or did you not use one before?

I also favor the prolonged inactivity (e.g. while sick & quarantined) and time needed for full lung recovery explanations. If you had a significant cardiac problem, the mild increase in heart rate on heavy exertion would not be the only symptom. FWIW. Do get the testing if that would be best for peace of mind.
I tried with and without the mask outdoors ..the same ..,I will get it checked out ....

If it wasn’t for the fact I bounced right back pre covid after 9 months of not running I would just go with the loss of capacity premise ...but after covid and 4 months this is very different
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:41 pm

It's hell getting old, recovery goes right in the shitter. Especially for endurance which, IIRC from Supertraining, is the quickest form of fitness to lose/gain.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:17 am

I took 9 months off before covid when everything was closed ...I had no such issues after the first week back so things are very different now after covid and it was only half the time away.

I certainly had no issues pre covid breathing heavy walking flights of stairs , so I am not so sure now that there is not some covid issue ,especially heart wise but I will see what the cardiologist finds
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:27 am

MangoMan wrote:
Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:45 pm
I can tell you that, no sickness involved, when I had to lay off the weights for a couple of weeks due to various injuries, it takes a long time to get back to where you were before.
That's why I do not exercise purposefully!

I do it (bike riding mainly) for enjoyment. My wife works out religiously.

I've never been able to get those bicep veins sticking out anyway, which was a goal for years of lifting weights.

I hate lifting weights. Unless I am lugging bags of mulch to the backyard, or something useful, vs. lifting for the sake of lifting.

My opinion, you mileage may vary.... ;)
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:59 am

Things we typically do don’t really count as exercise once your body gets used to it ..exercise constantly needs new levels of stress to remain exercise and not routine
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:44 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:27 am

MangoMan wrote:
Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:45 pm

I can tell you that, no sickness involved, when I had to lay off the weights for a couple of weeks due to various injuries, it takes a long time to get back to where you were before.

That's why I do not exercise purposefully!

I do it (bike riding mainly) for enjoyment. My wife works out religiously.

I've never been able to get those bicep veins sticking out anyway, which was a goal for years of lifting weights.

I hate lifting weights. Unless I am lugging bags of mulch to the backyard, or something useful, vs. lifting for the sake of lifting.

My opinion, you mileage may vary.... ;)


It was 10 years ago today I acquired my half rack, nice bench, Olympic bar, and 275 pounds of Olympic weights.

Has turned me into a barbell evangelist. I had no idea how using them would so much improve my quality of life.

It's allowed me to continue to do certain things that I otherwise would have had to cease years ago. And, allowed me to do some things I'd never prior been able to do.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2751
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:25 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:44 am
I had no idea how using [barbells] would so much improve my quality of life.

It's allowed me to continue to do certain things that I otherwise would have had to cease years ago. And, allowed me to do some things I'd never prior been able to do.
One of my uncles in his mid-80s (who never did strength training, to my knowledge) recently fell and... you guessed it -- broke his hip. Had a hip replacement surgery but didn't recover well from it, so he's now on hospice at home.

It's such a predicable pattern. A person gets older, their muscle mass and bone density gradually and inevitably waste away, and then one day either they lack the muscle mass to get up from the toilet or they lack the bone density to keep their hip intact when they fall down.

Lifting heavy weights slows down that wasting away process, so it pretty directly contributes to increased longevity and quality of life. Most people understand the cliche motivations of lifting weights to "get big" or to be able to fling heavy objects around like the Hulk, but a lot of them probably don't know about the longevity and quality of life benefits.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:01 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:25 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:44 am

I had no idea how using [barbells] would so much improve my quality of life.

It's allowed me to continue to do certain things that I otherwise would have had to cease years ago. And, allowed me to do some things I'd never prior been able to do.


One of my uncles in his mid-80s (who never did strength training, to my knowledge) recently fell and... you guessed it -- broke his hip. Had a hip replacement surgery but didn't recover well from it, so he's now on hospice at home.

It's such a predicable pattern. A person gets older, their muscle mass and bone density gradually and inevitably waste away, and then one day either they lack the muscle mass to get up from the toilet or they lack the bone density to keep their hip intact when they fall down.

Lifting heavy weights slows down that wasting away process, so it pretty directly contributes to increased longevity and quality of life. Most people understand the cliche motivations of lifting weights to "get big" or to be able to fling heavy objects around like the Hulk, but a lot of them probably don't know about the longevity and quality of life benefits.


My immediate reason for starting with them was to hit the softball farther.

My first session was on a Friday.

I was shocked how during that first session I was already feeling a change in quality in life. Then it was was reinforced the next two days (Saturday & Sunday) when I was doing familiar activities except that they were now already being done better just from my first session.

Now doing them three times a week (along with the rest of my exercise regimen) is a must in my life.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
Xan
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 4392
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:51 pm

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Xan » Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:10 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:01 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:25 pm
vnatale wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:44 am
I had no idea how using [barbells] would so much improve my quality of life.

It's allowed me to continue to do certain things that I otherwise would have had to cease years ago. And, allowed me to do some things I'd never prior been able to do.
One of my uncles in his mid-80s (who never did strength training, to my knowledge) recently fell and... you guessed it -- broke his hip. Had a hip replacement surgery but didn't recover well from it, so he's now on hospice at home.

It's such a predicable pattern. A person gets older, their muscle mass and bone density gradually and inevitably waste away, and then one day either they lack the muscle mass to get up from the toilet or they lack the bone density to keep their hip intact when they fall down.

Lifting heavy weights slows down that wasting away process, so it pretty directly contributes to increased longevity and quality of life. Most people understand the cliche motivations of lifting weights to "get big" or to be able to fling heavy objects around like the Hulk, but a lot of them probably don't know about the longevity and quality of life benefits.
My immediate reason for starting with them was to hit the softball farther.

My first session was on a Friday.

I was shocked how during that first session I was already feeling a change in quality in life. Then it was was reinforced the next two days (Saturday & Sunday) when I was doing familiar activities except that they were now already being done better just from my first session.

Now doing them three times a week (along with the rest of my exercise regimen) is a must in my life.
Vinny, can you give us more details about your equipment and routine?
glennds
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1265
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:24 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by glennds » Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:39 am

Xan wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:10 pm
vnatale wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:01 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:25 pm
vnatale wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:44 am
I had no idea how using [barbells] would so much improve my quality of life.

It's allowed me to continue to do certain things that I otherwise would have had to cease years ago. And, allowed me to do some things I'd never prior been able to do.
One of my uncles in his mid-80s (who never did strength training, to my knowledge) recently fell and... you guessed it -- broke his hip. Had a hip replacement surgery but didn't recover well from it, so he's now on hospice at home.

It's such a predicable pattern. A person gets older, their muscle mass and bone density gradually and inevitably waste away, and then one day either they lack the muscle mass to get up from the toilet or they lack the bone density to keep their hip intact when they fall down.

Lifting heavy weights slows down that wasting away process, so it pretty directly contributes to increased longevity and quality of life. Most people understand the cliche motivations of lifting weights to "get big" or to be able to fling heavy objects around like the Hulk, but a lot of them probably don't know about the longevity and quality of life benefits.
My immediate reason for starting with them was to hit the softball farther.

My first session was on a Friday.

I was shocked how during that first session I was already feeling a change in quality in life. Then it was was reinforced the next two days (Saturday & Sunday) when I was doing familiar activities except that they were now already being done better just from my first session.

Now doing them three times a week (along with the rest of my exercise regimen) is a must in my life.
Vinny, can you give us more details about your equipment and routine?
Ditto Vinny, I'd like to hear about it also. I happened to recently see Bigger, the movie about the life story of Joe Weider, thoroughly enjoyed it. So between that and your post, I'm now thinking seriously about getting into some weight training.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:34 am

I am curious if anyone knows -- pug mentioned the fact if you stop for a few weeks for whatever reason, you lose a lot of the gains you had from lifting.

But when you guys talk about old people wasting away, is it a known fact that if someone did strength training for most of their life, let's say, and then for the last 10 years could not anymore, do they have gains in their muscles and bones that continue to help them during those 10 years?

For example, my dad was a moose. Never worked out but as a truck mechanic, had a physical job and always did physical things around the house (installing patios, etc) for his entire life. Then a couple knee replacements and arthritis. He turns 89 today. Uses a walker. I look at him, and I see nothing of that lifetime of work/strength ethic having done anything to improve the situation he's been in for the past 5+ years?
flyingpylon
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1102
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:04 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:13 pm

Since I posted about last year's Indy 500 in this thread, here's an update. The 2021 race will be run as scheduled May 30th with fan attendance at approximately 40% or 135,000. It will be the highest-attended sporting event in the US since the onset of COVID-19. There will be temperature checks at the gates and masks will be required except when eating or drinking. There will be no general admission tickets or infield seating, and any concerts (including the "Snake Pit" on race day) have been canceled.

See you there! ;)
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:16 am

Xan wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:10 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:01 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:25 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:44 am

I had no idea how using [barbells] would so much improve my quality of life.

It's allowed me to continue to do certain things that I otherwise would have had to cease years ago. And, allowed me to do some things I'd never prior been able to do.


One of my uncles in his mid-80s (who never did strength training, to my knowledge) recently fell and... you guessed it -- broke his hip. Had a hip replacement surgery but didn't recover well from it, so he's now on hospice at home.

It's such a predicable pattern. A person gets older, their muscle mass and bone density gradually and inevitably waste away, and then one day either they lack the muscle mass to get up from the toilet or they lack the bone density to keep their hip intact when they fall down.

Lifting heavy weights slows down that wasting away process, so it pretty directly contributes to increased longevity and quality of life. Most people understand the cliche motivations of lifting weights to "get big" or to be able to fling heavy objects around like the Hulk, but a lot of them probably don't know about the longevity and quality of life benefits.


My immediate reason for starting with them was to hit the softball farther.

My first session was on a Friday.

I was shocked how during that first session I was already feeling a change in quality in life. Then it was was reinforced the next two days (Saturday & Sunday) when I was doing familiar activities except that they were now already being done better just from my first session.

Now doing them three times a week (along with the rest of my exercise regimen) is a must in my life.


Vinny, can you give us more details about your equipment and routine?


For certain. Just not at this moment as I'm actually in the midst of one of my 3 minute rest periods between my work set barbell exercises.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Apr 24, 2021 6:42 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:34 am
I am curious if anyone knows -- pug mentioned the fact if you stop for a few weeks for whatever reason, you lose a lot of the gains you had from lifting.
What you're talking about are two different components of strength training. One of the factors in getting stronger is neural; your brain and nerves get better at activating the muscles. The second factor is muscle gain; more muscle can move more weight.

What you lose when you take a long time off from lifting is the neural component. It's the opposite of Pavel's Grease The Groove, where you lift multiple times a day every day (to "grease" the neural groove). You kind of get "out of practice" and find you aren't as strong as you were before you took time off. However, you can get this kind of strength back relatively quickly once you start lifting again. Your muscles don't just disintegrate after a couple weeks of not pushing their limits.

In fact, one lifting system (Hypertrophy Specific Training) is pretty much a simple linear periodization plan that incorporates a 2 week deload period where you just do very light exercise in order to decondition your muscles. When you start lifting again, your body is deconditioned enough to respond to the light weights that normally wouldn't elicit any hypertrophy.
But when you guys talk about old people wasting away, is it a known fact that if someone did strength training for most of their life, let's say, and then for the last 10 years could not anymore, do they have gains in their muscles and bones that continue to help them during those 10 years?
Yes, that is a known fact. Strength training increases a lot of health markers, especially muscle mass and bone density, which don't go away immediately when one stops training. So during your hypothetical's 10 sedentary years, they'll still have those gains for at least some of them. Which they wouldn't have had if they hadn't done strength training.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Apr 24, 2021 7:24 am

I lost a lot of muscle mass from covid ....I lost14 lbs eating like a pig too ..so covid did do something that just taking time off did not .

After 9 months of the gym closed after the first two weeks both my cardio ability and weights were back to normal ...after covid is a very different story ...

I have to have an evaluation by a cardiologist done to see just what is changed now
User avatar
jalanlong
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 829
Joined: Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:30 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Mon Apr 26, 2021 7:46 pm

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -York.html

So much for removing mask mandates and full Baseball stadiums being Superspreader Events.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:20 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:43 am
WiseOne wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:19 am
Xan wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:05 am
WiseOne wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:57 am
Ivor Cummins videos do the same thing, but you don't have to sign up for anything. He's also put out a whitepaper on the topic - you can download from his website.
I don't see it, WiseOne, do you have a link?
Here it is. Buried in the blog section.

https://thefatemperor.com/science-and-d ... -stand-up/
WiseOne,

Cummins had this statement in the PDF, which I believe was limited to Ireland: Apart from the very short, fast spike in Covid19 deaths in April when the virus was new, overall mortality for the year 2020 has not been any higher than previous years

--Do you agree or disagree that was not the case for the US? That the CDC excess mortality graph absolutely shows excess deaths, and the latest finding from this is US life expectancy went down because of it as well?

And I am just trying to compare apples to apples here -- his chart which shows similar death rates to previous years (below) specifically says only through Sept. I assume previous years are full year's worth of data? Or do you think he pulled 3 months worth of deaths out of the previous years? Otherwise he is comparing 100% full year data to 75% for 2020, which would be BS if done on purpose, and I assume he is not that sloppy.

Image
Tyler Cowen linked to this page about death rates. So kinda related.
Is it really true that “the U.S. death rate in 2020 was the highest above normal since the early 1900s—even surpassing the calamity of the 1918 flu pandemic”?

tl;dr. No, it’s not true. The death rate increased by 15% from 2019 to 2020, but it jumped by 40% from 1917 to 1918.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
WiseOne
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2692
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2022 11:08 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:26 pm

Comparing COVID 19 to the 1918 flu epidemic is frankly insulting to anyone who lived through that. And a slap in the face to the field of epidemiology.

The 1918 flu, if it occurred today, would have killed 600 million people worldwide by now. And you may recall that a substantial proportion of COVID 19 cases (and likely some of the deaths) are based on positive test results. In 1918 there was no test. Cases were completely determined by the clinical picture. If that same criterion were applied to COVID 19 the numbers would go down....how much we don't know of course, but could be somewhere in the range of 20% to 50%.
User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2751
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:44 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:26 pm
Comparing COVID 19 to the 1918 flu epidemic is frankly insulting to anyone who lived through that. And a slap in the face to the field of epidemiology.
The field of epidemiology has done a pretty good job of slapping itself in the face this past year with its failed Covid-19 forecasting:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7447267/
Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed

Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence on effects of available interventions, lack of transparency, errors, lack of determinacy, consideration of only one or a few dimensions of the problem at hand, lack of expertise in crucial disciplines, groupthink and bandwagon effects, and selective reporting are some of the causes of these failures.
Post Reply