Coronavirus General Discussion

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Smith1776
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:34 am

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/taleb ... 13998.html

Taleb on Coronavirus and the markets:
“The worst thing you can do with insurance is try to time it,” Taleb, a distinguished professor of risk engineering at New York University, said in an interview Monday on Bloomberg Television. “If you don’t have tail insurance, you don’t have a portfolio. Your portfolio is going to blow up.”
;D
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:12 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:34 am
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/taleb ... 13998.html

Taleb on Coronavirus and the markets:
“The worst thing you can do with insurance is try to time it,” Taleb, a distinguished professor of risk engineering at New York University, said in an interview Monday on Bloomberg Television. “If you don’t have tail insurance, you don’t have a portfolio. Your portfolio is going to blow up.”
;D
Yes, that seems correct.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by shekels » Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:58 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:34 am
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/taleb ... 13998.html

Taleb on Coronavirus and the markets:
“The worst thing you can do with insurance is try to time it,” Taleb, a distinguished professor of risk engineering at New York University, said in an interview Monday on Bloomberg Television. “If you don’t have tail insurance, you don’t have a portfolio. Your portfolio is going to blow up.”
;D
Video for article
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... able-video


He also says "This is the strongest statistical association I've seen w/ respect to the virus. Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. PS-Don't get into elevators, buses, etc. unless your mask in N95 "
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mark Leavy » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:28 am

shekels wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:58 am

He also says "This is the strongest statistical association I've seen w/ respect to the virus. Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. PS-Don't get into elevators, buses, etc. unless your mask in N95 "
One of the things that I appreciate about Taleb is that he explains his reasoning. He's not saying "wear a mask because it works". He says "wear a mask because it is asymmetric". Meaning that there could be a high likelihood that wearing a mask is a small net negative (it doesn't do anything and it is annoying) versus a small chance that it is hugely positive (It wards off the apocalypse)
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by shekels » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:19 pm

Mark Leavy wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:28 am
shekels wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:58 am

He also says "This is the strongest statistical association I've seen w/ respect to the virus. Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. PS-Don't get into elevators, buses, etc. unless your mask in N95 "
One of the things that I appreciate about Taleb is that he explains his reasoning. He's not saying "wear a mask because it works". He says "wear a mask because it is asymmetric". Meaning that there could be a high likelihood that wearing a mask is a small net negative (it doesn't do anything and it is annoying) versus a small chance that it is hugely positive (It wards off the apocalypse)
I agree that wearing a mask does not have many negatives.
Except looking different than other store shoppers.
We may be wearing Mask as new Normal if this goes on much longer.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:27 pm

shekels wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:19 pm
We may be wearing Mask as new Normal if this goes on much longer.
Things certainly seem to be moving quickly in that direction:

The CDC is said to be considering asking people to cover their face in public — but would reserve masks for medical workers
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ics-2020-3
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by shekels » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:32 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:27 pm
shekels wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:19 pm
We may be wearing Mask as new Normal if this goes on much longer.
Things certainly seem to be moving quickly in that direction:

The CDC is said to be considering asking people to cover their face in public — but would reserve masks for medical workers
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ics-2020-3
The CDC must have been stuck in traffic.
What would they say if there were enough masks to go around ?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:55 pm

shekels wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:32 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:27 pm
shekels wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:19 pm
We may be wearing Mask as new Normal if this goes on much longer.
Things certainly seem to be moving quickly in that direction:

The CDC is said to be considering asking people to cover their face in public — but would reserve masks for medical workers
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ics-2020-3
The CDC must have been stuck in traffic.
What would they say if there were enough masks to go around ?
Doesn't that top circled group include China, where for sure they wear masks?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:43 pm

I believe that our Massachusetts governor has announced that all non-essential businesses are to be remained closed through May 4th.

Therefore after just getting that news I was quite surprised when shortly after I went outside to cross my street to get the mail that I had to wait as a total of about eight cars were going by in either direction. There was also someone going by on a bicycle.

I've just officially passed the two week mark of not being in the presence of any other human being or buying any food.

I'm seeing that my not-normal lifestyle has left me well-positioned for much of the aspects of today's life living under this virus.

Vinny
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:46 pm

Even taking such common-sense precautions as washing hands is often an unaffordable luxury to the half of the population. . . Even seemingly costless social distancing is hard to implement. Our lifestyle is deeply communal, with extended families traditionally sharing the burdens and bounties of life together, eating meals from the same plate.
A virus that ignores borders cannot be tackled successfully like this.
Momentary victory by a rich country in controlling the virus at a national level, coupled with travel bans and border closures, may give a semblance of accomplishment. But we all know this is a stopgap.
It's funny, he seems to be making the opposite argument.
all of Africa’s development partners must ensure that their development aid budgets remain ringfenced and are not diverted to domestic priorities. link
Ahhh.

Coincidentally, I was just thinking that all foreign aid should be diverted to domestic priorities right now.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:58 pm

bleep bloop, I'm a bot. kriegs seems to be quoting from this page:
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of -
quiet, you
If Covid-19 is not beaten in Africa it will return to haunt us all | Free to read      
Only a global victory can end this pandemic, not a temporary rich countries’ win 
https://www.ft.com/content/c12a09c8-6db ... bea055720b
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:32 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:58 pm
bleep bloop, I'm a bot. kriegs seems to be quoting from this page:
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of -
quiet, you
If Covid-19 is not beaten in Africa it will return to haunt us all | Free to read      
Only a global victory can end this pandemic, not a temporary rich countries’ win 
https://www.ft.com/content/c12a09c8-6db ... bea055720b
How about if we require quarantine for travelers from countries that host pandemic illnesses? That should help.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:33 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:46 pm
Even taking such common-sense precautions as washing hands is often an unaffordable luxury to the half of the population. . . Even seemingly costless social distancing is hard to implement. Our lifestyle is deeply communal, with extended families traditionally sharing the burdens and bounties of life together, eating meals from the same plate.
A virus that ignores borders cannot be tackled successfully like this.
Momentary victory by a rich country in controlling the virus at a national level, coupled with travel bans and border closures, may give a semblance of accomplishment. But we all know this is a stopgap.
It's funny, he seems to be making the opposite argument.
all of Africa’s development partners must ensure that their development aid budgets remain ringfenced and are not diverted to domestic priorities. link
Ahhh.

Coincidentally, I was just thinking that all foreign aid should be diverted to domestic priorities right now.
Foreign aid to "developing" countries is money down a rathole. All it does is make the rats bigger.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:01 pm

I am just finally viewing the attached that had been sent to me 12 days ago.

Look at the slide on page 5 -- "Keeping the Workplace Safe".

In just 12 days since what is on there feels like it is now ancient history!

There could be some information on some of the slides of value to you regarding what certain new employment laws there are regarding the virus.

Vinny


March 19th Webinar Slides.pdf
(2.05 MiB) Downloaded 243 times
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:11 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:01 pm
I am just finally viewing the attached that had been sent to me 12 days ago.
[...]
In just 12 days since what is on there feels like it is now ancient history!
Yup. Yesterday my dad emailed me a coronavirus article written by Dr. Fauci et al. in the New England Journal of Medicine on Feb 26. Over a month ago.

I didn't have the heart to tell him that given how quickly things have been moving and new data has been pouring in each day, a month-old coronavirus article may as well have been written in the Jurassic Era.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Hal » Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:25 pm

Funny how other policies are implemented during the virus.....

https://www.facebook.com/adamseconomics ... 0291107633
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:41 pm

Mark Leavy wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:28 am
shekels wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:58 am

He also says "This is the strongest statistical association I've seen w/ respect to the virus. Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. PS-Don't get into elevators, buses, etc. unless your mask in N95 "
One of the things that I appreciate about Taleb is that he explains his reasoning. He's not saying "wear a mask because it works". He says "wear a mask because it is asymmetric". Meaning that there could be a high likelihood that wearing a mask is a small net negative (it doesn't do anything and it is annoying) versus a small chance that it is hugely positive (It wards off the apocalypse)
Another view of Taleb from an emergency room doctor:

"I like Taleb in general, but the whole thing about N95s is so misguided. A. If you're wearing a correctly fitted N95 it's incredibly unpleasant. B. There is no evidence that an N95 is better than a regular plain old surgical mask (which is actually comfortable to wear).



I agree that there is possibly an advantage to wearing a mask vs not wearing a mask. And in Asia it has certainly been well received. The main advantage in my mind is that people are infectious for several days prior to having symptoms, and if everyone is wearing a mask then those people are wearing a mask too, without realizing they are helping to prevent the spread of their ilness.
"

Vinny
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:46 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:41 pm
"I like Taleb in general, but the whole thing about N95s is so misguided. A. If you're wearing a correctly fitted N95 it's incredibly unpleasant.
I've worn them a few times doing house projects and they are not comfortable at all.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:48 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:11 pm
Yesterday my dad emailed me a coronavirus article written by Dr. Fauci et al. in the New England Journal of Medicine on Feb 26. Over a month ago.

I didn't have the heart to tell him that given how quickly things have been moving and new data has been pouring in each day, a month-old coronavirus article may as well have been written in the Jurassic Era.
Were there predictions in it that turned out to be accurate?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:15 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:48 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:11 pm
Yesterday my dad emailed me a coronavirus article written by Dr. Fauci et al. in the New England Journal of Medicine on Feb 26. Over a month ago.

I didn't have the heart to tell him that given how quickly things have been moving and new data has been pouring in each day, a month-old coronavirus article may as well have been written in the Jurassic Era.
Were there predictions in it that turned out to be accurate?
The focus of the editorial wasn't really on predictions; it was more on summarizing the current (as of late Feb) state of knowledge about the virus. I guess the following quote could be considered a safe prediction that turned out to be true:

"The United States has seen a dramatic reduction in the number of travelers from China, especially from Hubei province. At least on a temporary basis, such restrictions may have helped slow the spread of the virus. . . However, given the efficiency of transmission as indicated in the current report, we should be prepared for Covid-19 to gain a foothold throughout the world, including in the United States. Community spread in the United States could require a shift from containment to mitigation strategies such as social distancing in order to reduce transmission. Such strategies could include isolating ill persons (including voluntary isolation at home), school closures, and telecommuting where possible."
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

It's actually a fairly accurate editorial. The main reason I poked fun at its 1-month age is because the studies it mentions are based on such small numbers of Covid-19 patients compared to the exponential explosion we've seen since late Feb.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:25 pm

Among the many virus items in my yesterday's local newspaper two items caught my eye...

1) Last week the sports department of the newspaper was laid off. ZERO local games to cover.

2) There was this article full of numbers by a computer scientist. I know that there are many here who absolutely love to attack numbers. Interested in your opinion of his opinion / analysis.

Vinny

https://www.recorder.com/COVID-19-What- ... r-33494776

Opinion > Columns
My Turn: COVID-19: What we know so far


By JERRY SCOTT
Published: 3/29/2020 1:28:03 PM
COVID-19 is just a new virus we have to deal with.

Mik Muller [My Turn: Make America healthy again”] is right. Too bad he had to ruin his input with politics. Public health belongs where it is now, in the CDC and NIH. Not in with the spies.

There is hope in a closer look.

Viruses are self-limiting by nature. Infection rates in a population are determined by the number of ways the virus can be transmitted, how long the viruses can survive outside of a host, and how long an infected host can transmit the virus before they become non-infectious or die. There are lots of viruses that infect people. They are all different. Think the Rhino viruses that infect many and kill few and Ebola, which infects few and kills most. Comparing one to another is not really a good way of looking at COVID-19.

Virologists have established that most viruses fall into the 40 to 70 percent infection rate in any given population. Death rates among the infected fall between .001% (or less) and 10% (or more). So far, COVID-19 seems likely to be acting in that infection range with a death rate of between 1% and 2%. Using a US population of 365,000,000, here is what might happen if we do nothing.

70% infected = 255,000,000, 2% death rate = 5,110,000

40% infected = 146,000,000, 1% death rate = 1,460,000

That is pretty scary.

But we are not doing nothing. If the social distancing measures currently underway can reduce the infection rate to 20% and modern medicine can reduce the death rate to .25%, both possible, this is what it may look like and it could be a lot lower.

20% infected = 73,000,000, .25% death rate = 638,750

Still very bad.

But a little perspective may make it a little less scary. Flu is expected to kill between 40,000 and 55,000 this flu season: Auto accidents will add 38,800, cancer 606,880, and heart disease 647,000. Even with that and the impact of COVID-19 the U.S. population will increase by almost 1,000,000 in 2020.

It is clear that what we do, each one of us, can have a huge impact. Expect the big numbers. But, do what we can. After all, our grandparents and great grandparents survived 1918.

Jerry Scott is computer scientist living in Northfield.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Maddy » Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:28 pm

I keep thinking. . . What sense does it make to turn every hospital and clinic into a center of contagion and, in the process, jeopardize the health and/or lives of people who need medical treatment for conditions other than CoVid-19? I previously related how an immune compromised friend with a surgical emergency was turned away from the nearest E.R. and was subsequently required to sit for six hours in a waiting room of full of hacking people in another town's E.R. before ever being seen. Since then, I've heard story after story of appointments being cancelled and of people choosing to delay treatment for potentially serious conditions out of concern that every medical facility in town has been turned into a hotbed of infection. Is anybody keeping track of the morbidity and mortality statistics for non-CoVid people whose treatment has been delayed or denied as a consequence of this uncoordinated effort?

Would it be so hard to designate a single location in each region of the country, well removed from any center of population, where confirmed CoVid-19 cases would receive treatment? The idea would be to quarantine not only those folks confirmed to be carriers, but the health care providers who may be spreading the virus all over the community. Sounds draconian, I know, but not nearly as draconian as shutting down the entire country.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:45 pm

https://masksnow.org/

What is The Masks Now Coalition?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:51 pm

At least 28 Texans test positive for COVID-19 after spring break in Mexico

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing ... ter-spring
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:54 pm

Dualstow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Toilet roll has become the new Lamborghini, everybody wants them


https://www.independent.co.uk/independe ... 1585709171
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