Coronavirus General Discussion

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:19 pm

We don’t have to elect anything as far as I know. If you see in the upper right, you have a daily choice to go in or from home, which is quite (crazy?) flexible.

I did just see on the news that the Chicago Teacher’s Union is saying teachers should not go back in the classroom until there is a vaccine.

I can’t wait to see what happens there. Can someone in power just come out and say a real vaccine is likely undoable? Should end up like Reagan and the air traffic controllers. You don’t want to work, we’ll find a replacement. Maybe that’s harsh, but many Chicago students are already at a disadvantage. Make it online, and good luck getting many to even log in.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:49 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:19 pm
We don’t have to elect anything as far as I know. If you see in the upper right, you have a daily choice to go in or from home, which is quite (crazy?) flexible.

I did just see on the news that the Chicago Teacher’s Union is saying teachers should not go back in the classroom until there is a vaccine.

I can’t wait to see what happens there. Can someone in power just come out and say a real vaccine is likely undoable? Should end up like Reagan and the air traffic controllers. You don’t want to work, we’ll find a replacement. Maybe that’s harsh, but many Chicago students are already at a disadvantage. Make it online, and good luck getting many to even log in.
Oh in my district you had to choose which method you wanted. You can switch of course but not every day.

Rumors are swirling that the Governor here is about to postpone school under after Labor Day. I guess the 81% at my son's school who want to go back in a couple of weeks will have no choice then.

In relation to the earlier topic about people being on the left or right and not in the common sense middle on this: Our Governor is struggling now with that old adage that you need to stay left or right because if you are in the middle you get run over. He is in a Red state with a conservative business/evangelical base. So he has tried very hard to act like he is still focused on the economy and jobs. However, as the cases surge it seems he cannot stand the heat from the left that he "opened too early" or "only cares about business" so he has instituted the mask order and is talking shut downs and school closings again. The result is that he is not popular in either camp. His actions don't appease the left who say its too little too late...and they dont appease the right who say this is not California. His approval rating has dropped from 70% in March to 44% now.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:51 pm

You know how the media and Emperor Newsom have been saying that California's Lockdown 2.0 is a response to the state "reopening too soon"? I.e., California supposedly screwed up by reopening too soon, and there's been a big spike in cases as a result?

Well, I decided to look at the "Total Coronavirus Cases in California" graph on this page and happened to notice that when I click "logarithmic" to view the vertical axis on a log scale, something very interesting becomes obvious. Prior to early April, the graph was a straight line (indicating exponential growth). After early April it remained a straight line, but its slope became noticeably flatter (meaning still exponential growth, but slower). And the slope has been roughly the same since then:
ca_total_cases_20200716.png
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What this tells me is that the recent increase in cases in California isn't a "spike", it's simply the continuation of the exponential growth that began over three months ago. That's the thing about exponential growth: It starts off slowly and often takes a while to really get going, but when it finally does, wow does it take off like a rocket.

The constant rate of exponential growth in California's cases between early April (the start of Lockdown 1.0) and now (the start of Lockdown 2.0), even during the phased reopening, tells us that the phased reopening between those two points in time evidently had very little effect on the growth of cases. The curve-bending around early April was probably due to widespread mask-wearing and social distancing throughout the state -- behaviors which have largely remained in place since then, even during the phased reopening.

TL;DR -- The media and government narrative that California "reopened too soon" and that Lockdown 2.0 is needed in order to get the case growth rate back under control is basically bullshit. But I suspect most of you knew that already. :)
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:50 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:38 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:19 pm
I did just see on the news that the Chicago Teacher’s Union is saying teachers should not go back in the classroom until there is a vaccine.

I can’t wait to see what happens there. Can someone in power just come out and say a real vaccine is likely undoable? Should end up like Reagan and the air traffic controllers. You don’t want to work, we’ll find a replacement. Maybe that’s harsh, but many Chicago students are already at a disadvantage. Make it online, and good luck getting many to even log in.
The best thing that could happen for schools in Chicago would be for the entire teacher's union to be fired and replaced. They have way to much power.
This also brings up the traditional way of learning versus online learning.

One caller today to C-Span cited the advantages of online learning whereby each student could have access to the absolute best teachers.

From 7th grade on through 5 1/2 years of college, I absolutely detested classes. Learning online at my pace would have far better suited me.

And, either the same caller or another caller pointed out (I think this may have been regards to college lectures) that in live lectures the same (only) five student actually participate. But now that it's gone online the number of students participating has absolutely gone wild.

Another caller pointed out how our summer vacations come from when we were more of an agricultural society and the kids had to be out of school to help out on the farms. Don't the countries of the world that are superior to us in education have year-round schooling?

Finally, there are far too many in the teaching industry who who are guilty of committing gross intellectual dishonesty when they compare what teachers make to what other professions make. Well, they work 36 weeks a year while those other professions work 48-50 weeks a year.

And, finally, finally, read an article in World Magazine (from the 90s) that on a per hour basis teachers are at the tops in terms of total compensation.

A friend, who is a CPA, once said to me. "There are two kinds of people. Those who worry about retirement. And, teachers."

Vinny
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:03 pm

For what it’s worth, I personally know a few teachers, and all of them put in many more hours (including during summer “vacation”) than what they officially get paid for. One of them used to be a nurse, and she told me nursing was less stressful.

It sounds like hard work — at least for the teachers who put in the extra effort to be the best teacher they can be.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:12 pm

I'm thinking about signing up to be a substitute teacher for the school a few blocks from my house. Getting paid $120 to put on a video about frogs sounds pretty cool.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Fri Jul 17, 2020 5:12 am

I keep seeing news about the overcounting of positive COVID-19 test results and deaths. Reporting errors, false positives, backdated results, redefinition of guidelines, etc.

Has anyone seen any stories about positives, hospitalizations, or deaths being undercounted?

Why would all of the errors point in one direction?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:46 am

flyingpylon wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 5:12 am
I keep seeing news about the overcounting of positive COVID-19 test results and deaths. Reporting errors, false positives, backdated results, redefinition of guidelines, etc.

Has anyone seen any stories about positives, hospitalizations, or deaths being undercounted?

Why would all of the errors point in one direction?
I feel like you have to look for those news stories though. And most people just look at the headlines. When I logged into my computer this morning I saw this. Day after day this is what keeps people in panic mode.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:19 am

jalanlong wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:24 pm
Also what is also interesting to me is that the 75% choosing to go back goes against earlier questionnaires (and local news polls) where only 50% of parents were planning on sending their kids back. So either the polls were wrong, or parents opinions changed in the last month (with a surge in cases happening) or what parents "want" to do vs what they can actually do are two different things.
Interesting that those polls were that far off. Maybe opinions really have shifted in the past several weeks.

Are the schools going to reopen non-academic and afterschool activities too, or is it just academic classes? I worry that an entire generation of kids is going to be socially handicapped because their public lives are being dramatically curtailed. They're being taught to live in fear and they're spending most of their time on social media or playing video games, and they're not doing what kids normally do to prepare for college, career etc. A few weeks is one thing, but as the duration starts being measured in years, that's something else. I think parents are starting to understand this even though the media and health officials are studiously avoiding the subject.

That's why I hypothesized that if schools don't reopen, people are going to start organizing their own homegrown versions.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:32 am

WiseOne wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:19 am
jalanlong wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:24 pm
Also what is also interesting to me is that the 75% choosing to go back goes against earlier questionnaires (and local news polls) where only 50% of parents were planning on sending their kids back. So either the polls were wrong, or parents opinions changed in the last month (with a surge in cases happening) or what parents "want" to do vs what they can actually do are two different things.
Interesting that those polls were that far off. Maybe opinions really have shifted in the past several weeks.

Are the schools going to reopen non-academic and afterschool activities too, or is it just academic classes? I worry that an entire generation of kids is going to be socially handicapped because their public lives are being dramatically curtailed. They're being taught to live in fear and they're spending most of their time on social media or playing video games, and they're not doing what kids normally do to prepare for college, career etc. A few weeks is one thing, but as the duration starts being measured in years, that's something else. I think parents are starting to understand this even though the media and health officials are studiously avoiding the subject.

That's why I hypothesized that if schools don't reopen, people are going to start organizing their own homegrown versions.
Well it is a moot point now because even though 75% of parents in my district chose to send their kids back (and some other wealthier districts had upwards of 85% choosing to send their kids back) the districts decided yesterday to start the school year out online, ignoring parents wishes. At this point I do not believe they will have a physical school year at all. I think they will get people acclimated to this with a "goal" of starting physical at Labor Day but it will never happen. I have no idea what I am going to do. My son does not learn sitting in front of a computer doing online math or science games that they call online school. He asks every day when he can go back to school and see his friends.

As an aside, do you think that the users of Facebook and other social media outlets lean liberal? People that I know are all for reopening but I am not sure they are representative of the avg citizen. So I like to sort of gauge what the avg person is thinking about all of this. I am not sure if Facebook is a good barometer or not. While Frisco ISD had 85% of parents choose to send their kids back and the district decided to do online instead, I would say that 90% of the comments to that news on Facebook were something along the lines of "thank you for keeping our kids safe!" or "Thanks Frisco for following the Science!" If that is really the way the avg person thinks then we may never have school again.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:37 am

WiseOne wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:19 am
jalanlong wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:24 pm
Also what is also interesting to me is that the 75% choosing to go back goes against earlier questionnaires (and local news polls) where only 50% of parents were planning on sending their kids back. So either the polls were wrong, or parents opinions changed in the last month (with a surge in cases happening) or what parents "want" to do vs what they can actually do are two different things.
Interesting that those polls were that far off. Maybe opinions really have shifted in the past several weeks.

Are the schools going to reopen non-academic and afterschool activities too, or is it just academic classes? I worry that an entire generation of kids is going to be socially handicapped because their public lives are being dramatically curtailed. They're being taught to live in fear and they're spending most of their time on social media or playing video games, and they're not doing what kids normally do to prepare for college, career etc. A few weeks is one thing, but as the duration starts being measured in years, that's something else. I think parents are starting to understand this even though the media and health officials are studiously avoiding the subject.

That's why I hypothesized that if schools don't reopen, people are going to start organizing their own homegrown versions.
Activities are still happening, but severely different. Marching band program is 2 minutes long instead of 8, and all official competitions are cancelled. So the kids will still get together but not compete against other schools. I don't think too many will be that upset, actually!

Football is still up in the air. They are practicing, but real games TBD.

Indoor band concerts TBD.

Other close contact sports, I have no idea.

jalanlong, you are in a dark spot right now, but my feeling is this will not fly. If America rolls over for online school for more than one semester, I cannot imagine the consequences. I, for one, will be out protesting that.

I can only continue to hope that people realize this is almost a non-issue for kids. If you are a teacher, I don't know what to say, other than I talk with at least some who are fine with the risk, but also hear of others who don't want to risk it. I think a lot has to do with age.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:41 am

jalanlong wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:32 am
As an aside, do you think that the users of Facebook and other social media outlets lean liberal? People that I know are all for reopening but I am not sure they are representative of the avg citizen. So I like to sort of gauge what the avg person is thinking about all of this. I am not sure if Facebook is a good barometer or not. While Frisco ISD had 85% of parents choose to send their kids back and the district decided to do online instead, I would say that 90% of the comments to that news on Facebook were something along the lines of "thank you for keeping our kids safe!" or "Thanks Frisco for following the Science!" If that is really the way the avg person thinks then we may never have school again.
My observation of Facebook is that the loudest and most frequent posters absolutely lean left. I consider them to be "progressive", not "liberal". Whether what you see accurately represents the entire user base depends on who you are "friends" with.

But I have noticed that more moderate users tend not to post at all or have dismissed Facebook entirely, which makes it a big echo chamber most of the time.
Simonjester wrote: Parler seems to be gaining some traction, as a twitter substitute, and bitchute for a YouTube substitute, not sure if face book has an uncensored competitor with any legs yet, but at least there some alternatives building a user base,
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:02 am

flyingpylon wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:41 am

But I have noticed that more moderate users tend not to post at all or have dismissed Facebook entirely, which makes it a big echo chamber most of the time.
Yeah. Exactly. I just perused the high school parents page. Just people on both sides jabbing at each other. It is terrible. I wanted to post something, but have decided not to. It won't appease or help anyone, and I have no interest in starting another chain on another group.

I actually am very close to just not looking at this forum for a few weeks as well. It's fun sometimes (not lately) to bitch and make your positions clear, but in the end we all have nearly zero control over everything we discuss -- the virus, opening schools, gold, stocks, bonds, politics, etc.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Xan » Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:10 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:37 am
If you are a teacher, I don't know what to say, other than I talk with at least some who are fine with the risk, but also hear of others who don't want to risk it. I think a lot has to do with age.
My first instinct as a response is that if you don't want to teach anymore, then we'll find someone who does to replace you.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by shekels » Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:19 am

Xan wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:10 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:37 am
If you are a teacher, I don't know what to say, other than I talk with at least some who are fine with the risk, but also hear of others who don't want to risk it. I think a lot has to do with age.
My first instinct as a response is that if you don't want to teach anymore, then we'll find someone who does to replace you.
It just reminds me of what Ronald Reagan did with Air traffic controllers.

That sure shook things up.

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:27 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:37 am
jalanlong, you are in a dark spot right now, but my feeling is this will not fly. If America rolls over for online school for more than one semester, I cannot imagine the consequences. I, for one, will be out protesting that.
I share this sentiment!

Jalanlong, why don't you go ahead and take action on your own initiative? I think everyone is correct that the school-reopening can will keep getting kicked down the road, to the great detriment of kids like Jalanlong's.

Contact parents of the special needs kids in the class with your child, and ask if they'd like to get together to create a homeschool attached to the online learning from the public school. Something like this: rotate holding classes in different homes, figure out how many parents need to be present and make up a schedule, and have parents teach the online material and help the kids negotiate the online homework, test-taking etc. Schedule in some outdoor activity & games, and maybe some fun field trip-like outings in small groups (as allowed by local law enforcement).

Eventually you could publicize what you're doing which may inspire others to follow your lead, but you will probably want to keep it quiet at least initially. I can imagine that a town that refuses to reopen schools would not be thrilled if they got wind of this.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:34 am

flyingpylon wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:41 am
jalanlong wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:32 am
As an aside, do you think that the users of Facebook and other social media outlets lean liberal? People that I know are all for reopening but I am not sure they are representative of the avg citizen. So I like to sort of gauge what the avg person is thinking about all of this. I am not sure if Facebook is a good barometer or not. While Frisco ISD had 85% of parents choose to send their kids back and the district decided to do online instead, I would say that 90% of the comments to that news on Facebook were something along the lines of "thank you for keeping our kids safe!" or "Thanks Frisco for following the Science!" If that is really the way the avg person thinks then we may never have school again.
My observation of Facebook is that the loudest and most frequent posters absolutely lean left. I consider them to be "progressive", not "liberal". Whether what you see accurately represents the entire user base depends on who you are "friends" with.

But I have noticed that more moderate users tend not to post at all or have dismissed Facebook entirely, which makes it a big echo chamber most of the time.
I like to have a gauge on the way the avg person thinks about stuff so that I can sort of know what might be coming. Should I prepare for a short shutdown or a long one in this case? But it is hard to know how the majority of people feel on this. Generic polling says that people are in favor of shutdowns and closed schools. And social media posts would definitely confirm that. However, when our locals school parents had to actually put pen to paper and say if they were sending their kids back to school or not, close to 80% chose to send them back. is there a "silent majority" out there that is against all of this or no? It's hard to tell.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Xan » Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:50 am

WiseOne wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:27 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:37 am
jalanlong, you are in a dark spot right now, but my feeling is this will not fly. If America rolls over for online school for more than one semester, I cannot imagine the consequences. I, for one, will be out protesting that.
I share this sentiment!

Jalanlong, why don't you go ahead and take action on your own initiative? I think everyone is correct that the school-reopening can will keep getting kicked down the road, to the great detriment of kids like Jalanlong's.

Contact parents of the special needs kids in the class with your child, and ask if they'd like to get together to create a homeschool attached to the online learning from the public school. Something like this: rotate holding classes in different homes, figure out how many parents need to be present and make up a schedule, and have parents teach the online material and help the kids negotiate the online homework, test-taking etc. Schedule in some outdoor activity & games, and maybe some fun field trip-like outings in small groups (as allowed by local law enforcement).

Eventually you could publicize what you're doing which may inspire others to follow your lead, but you will probably want to keep it quiet at least initially. I can imagine that a town that refuses to reopen schools would not be thrilled if they got wind of this.
Some friends of ours are doing something like this. They believe that their elementary school will at best be constantly fluctuating between being open and closed this year. So they're officially opting for the remote-learning option, getting together with about 8 other kids in their grade, and one of the parents (who happens to be a teacher) is going to be their in-person teacher, rotating among houses, and paid by the group. They're hoping that the school will put all these kids in the same "class" together. I'm not sure why they still need the remote learning from the school district.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:51 am

Another interesting article on T-cell immunity. With all the colds I've caught over the years I wonder if anything was a "zoonotic coronavirus"? Unfortunately I don't think the antibody test they are currently doing tells you this.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... oronavirus
Very interesting indeed! That would argue that there has been past zoonotic coronavirus transmission in humans, unknown viruses that apparently did not lead to serious disease, which have provided some people with a level of T-cell based protection to the current pandemic.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by shekels » Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:52 am

jalanlong wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:34 am


I like to have a gauge on the way the avg person thinks about stuff so that I can sort of know what might be coming. Should I prepare for a short shutdown or a long one in this case? But it is hard to know how the majority of people feel on this. Generic polling says that people are in favor of shutdowns and closed schools. And social media posts would definitely confirm that. However, when our locals school parents had to actually put pen to paper and say if they were sending their kids back to school or not, close to 80% chose to send them back. is there a "silent majority" out there that is against all of this or no? It's hard to tell.
It seems to me, so take it for what is worth.
Psychological warfare is going on, and students are the pawns.

If possible you can home school with a group of friends or start a group.
My neighbor has several children and they belong to a home school group.
They get together for different function and at each other house.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:09 am

Simonjester wrote:
Parler seems to be gaining some traction, as a twitter substitute, and bitchute for a YouTube substitute, not sure if face book has an uncensored competitor with any legs yet, but at least there some alternatives building a user base,


It's founder was on C-Span. But it seemed to be only a phone thing? No way to engage in it using a computer?

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:46 am

vnatale wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:09 am
Simonjester wrote: Parler seems to be gaining some traction, as a twitter substitute, and bitchute for a YouTube substitute, not sure if face book has an uncensored competitor with any legs yet, but at least there some alternatives building a user base,
It's founder was on C-Span. But it seemed to be only a phone thing? No way to engage in it using a computer?

Vinny
https://parler.com/ but I think you have to register to see anything, unlike Twitter.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:36 pm

Well, here we go. Schools were supposed to open for in-person instruction 8/5 but it was just announced that classes will be online through Labor Day.

"Based on our local health indicators that are showing an increase in infections in our community and current staffing projections, the first phase will begin with all students attending school virtually." (emphasis mine)

Locally I've heard that some teachers may be opting out. Nationally it appears that some teacher's unions are not letting a crisis go to waste and are making more demands before agreeing to teach in-person. Perhaps teacher shortages will be the deciding factor in all of this.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:05 pm

flyingpylon wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:46 am

vnatale wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:09 am

Simonjester wrote:
Parler seems to be gaining some traction, as a twitter substitute, and bitchute for a YouTube substitute, not sure if face book has an uncensored competitor with any legs yet, but at least there some alternatives building a user base,


It's founder was on C-Span. But it seemed to be only a phone thing? No way to engage in it using a computer?

Vinny


https://parler.com/ but I think you have to register to see anything, unlike Twitter.


Just tried to register. Gave my landline phone number. Sent me a text for a number I need to enter to keep going. My landline does not receive texts. All this leads me to conclude it is phone based only and not to be used on a computer. Anyone here actually on it?

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:07 pm

flyingpylon wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:36 pm
Well, here we go. Schools were supposed to open for in-person instruction 8/5 but it was just announced that classes will be online through Labor Day.

"Based on our local health indicators that are showing an increase in infections in our community and current staffing projections, the first phase will begin with all students attending school virtually." (emphasis mine)

Locally I've heard that some teachers may be opting out. Nationally it appears that some teacher's unions are not letting a crisis go to waste and are making more demands before agreeing to teach in-person. Perhaps teacher shortages will be the deciding factor in all of this.
Why on earth would anyone believe at this point that students will go back after Labor Day? I feel like the only thing that is going to stop this is people just unenrolling their children from the school as a protest.
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