Coronavirus General Discussion

[Cortopassi]

I give that about another 6 - 8 months....doubt very much it will take a year.

Yeah, that's the good thing. There will be an end to this one way or the other. It can't keep on this way forever.

[flyingpylon]

I rarely go on Facebook and occasionally on Twitter, but I literally never post. People are insane and there is no one in the center; everyone is hard left or right.

My son just told me his 4 year old daughter (my granddaughter) is running a fever. She hasn't been around anyone except my ex-wife who feels fine. They went to get her tested for COVID just in case and were told it would take 3 days minimum to get a result. That's ridiculous. Do my son and his wife need to put their lives on hold bc the kid might have the virus? Forget arguing about masks if they can't get results in a reasonable time frame.

My social media policy is "read only". I don't even "like" anything... leave no trace, lol.

3 days for results seems to be on the low end of the scale. Some colleges are saying they will require a COVID test done within 10 days of arrival and parents are complaining that results are taking 2-3 weeks in their area, or are completely unavailable to people with no symptoms. So availability and turnaround time seem to vary widely. My city is offering free tests to all residents with a 3-day turnaround.

[Tortoise]

Some colleges are saying they will require a COVID test done within 10 days of arrival [...]

The public health equivalent of security theater.

[jalanlong]

Goddamit does everything have to be political? Is there no one without a hard right or hard left agenda?

To the lefties, I would say, send kids back to school. You have to assume there will never be an effective vaccine. Live with it and be safe, but not to the point of complete disruption. Or are you really going to lock yourself away forever?

To the righties, I would say, just wear a damn mask whether you think it helps or not. At a minimum if you all do, and two weeks from now the case rate does not drop, well then what BS are the lefties going to have left to pull out of their ass? They weren't wearing them right? They were 5 feet apart and not 6?

This, I would say, is what the majority of people are thinking. Tell me if I am wrong. But no, all we hear are the extreme right and left sides and I am sick of it.

Along those lines....it would be worth if it we could all cope with faithfully wearing masks for 2 weeks. Just to prove how ridiculous is the latest claim by the CDC that the coronavirus would be eliminated if that were to occur.

I am satisfied, by the way, that there is enough anecdotal evidence to support mask wearing indoors in situations with likely prolonged and close-quarter contact with other people - realizing that the mechanism is to reduce (not eliminate) spread FROM people who are shedding enough virus to infect others. That is, the mask will greatly reduce droplet spread. It probably does little to reduce aerosol spread, and it may encourage people who are sick to go out. Most transmission is from people exhibiting symptoms. Staying home if you're sick is likely to be much more effective than wearing a mask, and that should be the first line of defense.

I hope that clarifies my view. You can decide if that's "hard right". It's definitely not hard left.

i believe that even if every single person everywhere wore a mask then when the numbers did not decrease then they are going to say that everyone did not comply. The governor here is already prepping that. He instituted the mandatory mask rule but then as cases continue to spike he says that people complying is the only way to avoid another shutdown. That way he puts the responsibility on the citizens like any good parent would right? You know I didn't want to do this but you guys made me.

https://www.click2houston.com/news/loca ... bott-says/

The stuff that drives me crazy is that I have to put on a mask to go into a restaurant and then walk 20 feet to my table, Then I can take it off. I would love for an expert to calculate for me the chances of catching or spreading a virus in that 20 foot walk. Especially when the restaurant is running at 25% capacity by state order. But I guess if I question the "anything to keep us safe" crowd then that makes me "hard right".

[flyingpylon]

Some colleges are saying they will require a COVID test done within 10 days of arrival [...]

The public health equivalent of security theater.

Oh I agree, but just like security theater you have to put up with certain things to get where you're going.

IMO it's just another ass-covering exercise. COVID-19 is a huge financial and legal threat, and you can see it in the decisions they make and the messaging that goes along with it.

[jalanlong]

One of the things that frustrates me the most about this whole situation is the moving goalposts for reopening, or the lack of any goalposts at all. I think that contributes to all of the emotional reactions. Has anyone anywhere actually articulated a set of metrics for reopening?

An analogy many of us here are familiar with is that when you pull your money out of the stock market, how do you know when to get back in? So glad I've moved past that dilemma!

That has been my issue from the very beginning. I need to know exactly what you are asking me to do, why and for how long. And I want to know the end game. Moving the goalposts from not overrunning hospitals to "slowing the spread" is a typical government tactic but Americans have let them get away with it. I personally know very few people who are in favor of shutdowns. But the ones I do cannot articulate any sort of definitive statement as to what would be acceptable to reopen. They will go with either a vaccine being available or "until we get a handle on this". Even a vaccine would just move the goalpost to waiting to see how well it works, any effects etc.

[Tortoise]

The stuff that drives me crazy is that I have to put on a mask to go into a restaurant and then walk 20 feet to my table, Then I can take it off. I would love for an expert to calculate for me the chances of catching or spreading a virus in that 20 foot walk. Especially when the restaurant is running at 25% capacity by state order.

I think the rationale is that when you're sitting at your table, your group is separated from other customers by at least six feet due to the table separation, so taking your mask off is fine. But when you're walking to/from your table, to/from the restroom, etc., you could potentially come closer than six feet to another customer (e.g., walking past each other in the hallway leading to the restroom) -- hence mask required.

[jalanlong]

One of the things that frustrates me the most about this whole situation is the moving goalposts for reopening, or the lack of any goalposts at all. I think that contributes to all of the emotional reactions. Has anyone anywhere actually articulated a set of metrics for reopening?

Sure. When it's "safe". Given that walking out of your cocoon, oops I mean home can never be guaranteed safe, reopening will not happen until people decide en masse just to do it and to heck with the rules. I give that about another 6 - 8 months....doubt very much it will take a year.

I'm not sure what will happen to schools and other government institutions though. They may continue to operate in "safe" mode for years. In which case private alternatives, like homeschool groups, will naturally spring up. That will be delightful to watch.

"Safe? This is obviously some strange usage of the word 'safe' that I wasn't previously aware of."

--- Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams

I gave the entire thing a 4-6 weeks before people's attention spans waned and they started wanting to go to the movies, concerts, sporting events, vacations etc. I am just shocked at the number of people who are apparently willing to shelter in place in perpetuity. If they do it long enough it could theoretically become a new normal as people forget what it used to be like to go places and do things.

I think that sports like MLB should be very careful about shutting down too long. It is possible that after a long absence people could really forget about them. I feel like they should be leading the charge to get back or else run the risk of being forgotten in the "new world order".

[jalanlong]

The stuff that drives me crazy is that I have to put on a mask to go into a restaurant and then walk 20 feet to my table, Then I can take it off. I would love for an expert to calculate for me the chances of catching or spreading a virus in that 20 foot walk. Especially when the restaurant is running at 25% capacity by state order.

I think the rationale is that when you're sitting at your table, your group is separated from other customers by at least six feet due to the table separation, so taking your mask off is fine. But when you're walking to/from your table, to/from the restroom, etc., you could potentially come closer than six feet to another customer (e.g., walking past each other in the hallway leading to the restroom) -- hence mask required.

The restaurants here are capped at 25% capacity and really they are not that busy because everyone is too scared to go out. So the ones I have been to only have a handful of people there. So do a calculation of the odds that in the 5 seconds it takes me to walk to my table that I pass one of those handful of people closer than 6 feet and one or the other of us has the virus and then sneezes or coughs, causing the other one to catch it. I would say that whatever those odds are, if that is the level of risk that we are unwilling to accept then we should just be shut down entirely. And really at that level of risk avoidance I shouldn't be driving to the restaurant in the first place. Or eating the Mexican food and soda either.

[vnatale]

One of the things that frustrates me the most about this whole situation is the moving goalposts for reopening, or the lack of any goalposts at all. I think that contributes to all of the emotional reactions. Has anyone anywhere actually articulated a set of metrics for reopening?

Sure. When it's "safe". Given that walking out of your cocoon, oops I mean home can never be guaranteed safe, reopening will not happen until people decide en masse just to do it and to heck with the rules. I give that about another 6 - 8 months....doubt very much it will take a year.

I'm not sure what will happen to schools and other government institutions though. They may continue to operate in "safe" mode for years. In which case private alternatives, like homeschool groups, will naturally spring up. That will be delightful to watch.

"Safe? This is obviously some strange usage of the word 'safe' that I wasn't previously aware of."

--- Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams

I gave the entire thing a 4-6 weeks before people's attention spans waned and they started wanting to go to the movies, concerts, sporting events, vacations etc. I am just shocked at the number of people who are apparently willing to shelter in place in perpetuity. If they do it long enough it could theoretically become a new normal as people forget what it used to be like to go places and do things.

I think that sports like MLB should be very careful about shutting down too long. It is possible that after a long absence people could really forget about them. I feel like they should be leading the charge to get back or else run the risk of being forgotten in the "new world order".

MLB is starting back up in less than two weeks.

Vinny

[Cortopassi]

Here's our HS district plan. At least they are giving it a shot. There is an option for being at home as well.

[jalanlong]

Here's our HS district plan. At least they are giving it a shot. There is an option for being at home as well.

Did they give you any idea as to how many people had signed up for each, physical vs remote? My district released that information last night and 75% of parents chose to sends their kids back. Interestingly the choice to go back or not seemed to be kind of random from school to school and not really patterned according to geographic or socioeconomic lines from what I can tell. Some schools were almost 100% wanting to go back and some were in the 50%s.

Also what is also interesting to me is that the 75% choosing to go back goes against earlier questionnaires (and local news polls) where only 50% of parents were planning on sending their kids back. So either the polls were wrong, or parents opinions changed in the last month (with a surge in cases happening) or what parents "want" to do vs what they can actually do are two different things.

[Cortopassi]

We don’t have to elect anything as far as I know. If you see in the upper right, you have a daily choice to go in or from home, which is quite (crazy?) flexible.

I did just see on the news that the Chicago Teacher’s Union is saying teachers should not go back in the classroom until there is a vaccine.

I can’t wait to see what happens there. Can someone in power just come out and say a real vaccine is likely undoable? Should end up like Reagan and the air traffic controllers. You don’t want to work, we’ll find a replacement. Maybe that’s harsh, but many Chicago students are already at a disadvantage. Make it online, and good luck getting many to even log in.

[jalanlong]

We don’t have to elect anything as far as I know. If you see in the upper right, you have a daily choice to go in or from home, which is quite (crazy?) flexible.

I did just see on the news that the Chicago Teacher’s Union is saying teachers should not go back in the classroom until there is a vaccine.

I can’t wait to see what happens there. Can someone in power just come out and say a real vaccine is likely undoable? Should end up like Reagan and the air traffic controllers. You don’t want to work, we’ll find a replacement. Maybe that’s harsh, but many Chicago students are already at a disadvantage. Make it online, and good luck getting many to even log in.

Oh in my district you had to choose which method you wanted. You can switch of course but not every day.

Rumors are swirling that the Governor here is about to postpone school under after Labor Day. I guess the 81% at my son's school who want to go back in a couple of weeks will have no choice then.

In relation to the earlier topic about people being on the left or right and not in the common sense middle on this: Our Governor is struggling now with that old adage that you need to stay left or right because if you are in the middle you get run over. He is in a Red state with a conservative business/evangelical base. So he has tried very hard to act like he is still focused on the economy and jobs. However, as the cases surge it seems he cannot stand the heat from the left that he "opened too early" or "only cares about business" so he has instituted the mask order and is talking shut downs and school closings again. The result is that he is not popular in either camp. His actions don't appease the left who say its too little too late...and they dont appease the right who say this is not California. His approval rating has dropped from 70% in March to 44% now.

[Tortoise]

You know how the media and Emperor Newsom have been saying that California's Lockdown 2.0 is a response to the state "reopening too soon"? I.e., California supposedly screwed up by reopening too soon, and there's been a big spike in cases as a result?

Well, I decided to look at the "Total Coronavirus Cases in California" graph on this page and happened to notice that when I click "logarithmic" to view the vertical axis on a log scale, something very interesting becomes obvious. Prior to early April, the graph was a straight line (indicating exponential growth). After early April it remained a straight line, but its slope became noticeably flatter (meaning still exponential growth, but slower). And the slope has been roughly the same since then:

ca_total_cases_20200716.png (61.3 KiB) Viewed 4648 times

What this tells me is that the recent increase in cases in California isn't a "spike", it's simply the continuation of the exponential growth that began over three months ago. That's the thing about exponential growth: It starts off slowly and often takes a while to really get going, but when it finally does, wow does it take off like a rocket.

The constant rate of exponential growth in California's cases between early April (the start of Lockdown 1.0) and now (the start of Lockdown 2.0), even during the phased reopening, tells us that the phased reopening between those two points in time evidently had very little effect on the growth of cases. The curve-bending around early April was probably due to widespread mask-wearing and social distancing throughout the state -- behaviors which have largely remained in place since then, even during the phased reopening.

TL;DR -- The media and government narrative that California "reopened too soon" and that Lockdown 2.0 is needed in order to get the case growth rate back under control is basically bullshit. But I suspect most of you knew that already.

[vnatale]

I did just see on the news that the Chicago Teacher’s Union is saying teachers should not go back in the classroom until there is a vaccine.

I can’t wait to see what happens there. Can someone in power just come out and say a real vaccine is likely undoable? Should end up like Reagan and the air traffic controllers. You don’t want to work, we’ll find a replacement. Maybe that’s harsh, but many Chicago students are already at a disadvantage. Make it online, and good luck getting many to even log in.

The best thing that could happen for schools in Chicago would be for the entire teacher's union to be fired and replaced. They have way to much power.

This also brings up the traditional way of learning versus online learning.

One caller today to C-Span cited the advantages of online learning whereby each student could have access to the absolute best teachers.

From 7th grade on through 5 1/2 years of college, I absolutely detested classes. Learning online at my pace would have far better suited me.

And, either the same caller or another caller pointed out (I think this may have been regards to college lectures) that in live lectures the same (only) five student actually participate. But now that it's gone online the number of students participating has absolutely gone wild.

Another caller pointed out how our summer vacations come from when we were more of an agricultural society and the kids had to be out of school to help out on the farms. Don't the countries of the world that are superior to us in education have year-round schooling?

Finally, there are far too many in the teaching industry who who are guilty of committing gross intellectual dishonesty when they compare what teachers make to what other professions make. Well, they work 36 weeks a year while those other professions work 48-50 weeks a year.

And, finally, finally, read an article in World Magazine (from the 90s) that on a per hour basis teachers are at the tops in terms of total compensation.

A friend, who is a CPA, once said to me. "There are two kinds of people. Those who worry about retirement. And, teachers."

Vinny

[Tortoise]

For what it’s worth, I personally know a few teachers, and all of them put in many more hours (including during summer “vacation”) than what they officially get paid for. One of them used to be a nurse, and she told me nursing was less stressful.

It sounds like hard work — at least for the teachers who put in the extra effort to be the best teacher they can be.

[Kriegsspiel]

I'm thinking about signing up to be a substitute teacher for the school a few blocks from my house. Getting paid $120 to put on a video about frogs sounds pretty cool.

[flyingpylon]

I keep seeing news about the overcounting of positive COVID-19 test results and deaths. Reporting errors, false positives, backdated results, redefinition of guidelines, etc.

Has anyone seen any stories about positives, hospitalizations, or deaths being undercounted?

Why would all of the errors point in one direction?

[jalanlong]

I keep seeing news about the overcounting of positive COVID-19 test results and deaths. Reporting errors, false positives, backdated results, redefinition of guidelines, etc.

Has anyone seen any stories about positives, hospitalizations, or deaths being undercounted?

Why would all of the errors point in one direction?

I feel like you have to look for those news stories though. And most people just look at the headlines. When I logged into my computer this morning I saw this. Day after day this is what keeps people in panic mode.

Capture.PNG (477.47 KiB) Viewed 4586 times

[WiseOne]

Also what is also interesting to me is that the 75% choosing to go back goes against earlier questionnaires (and local news polls) where only 50% of parents were planning on sending their kids back. So either the polls were wrong, or parents opinions changed in the last month (with a surge in cases happening) or what parents "want" to do vs what they can actually do are two different things.

Interesting that those polls were that far off. Maybe opinions really have shifted in the past several weeks.

Are the schools going to reopen non-academic and afterschool activities too, or is it just academic classes? I worry that an entire generation of kids is going to be socially handicapped because their public lives are being dramatically curtailed. They're being taught to live in fear and they're spending most of their time on social media or playing video games, and they're not doing what kids normally do to prepare for college, career etc. A few weeks is one thing, but as the duration starts being measured in years, that's something else. I think parents are starting to understand this even though the media and health officials are studiously avoiding the subject.

That's why I hypothesized that if schools don't reopen, people are going to start organizing their own homegrown versions.

[jalanlong]

Also what is also interesting to me is that the 75% choosing to go back goes against earlier questionnaires (and local news polls) where only 50% of parents were planning on sending their kids back. So either the polls were wrong, or parents opinions changed in the last month (with a surge in cases happening) or what parents "want" to do vs what they can actually do are two different things.

Interesting that those polls were that far off. Maybe opinions really have shifted in the past several weeks.

Are the schools going to reopen non-academic and afterschool activities too, or is it just academic classes? I worry that an entire generation of kids is going to be socially handicapped because their public lives are being dramatically curtailed. They're being taught to live in fear and they're spending most of their time on social media or playing video games, and they're not doing what kids normally do to prepare for college, career etc. A few weeks is one thing, but as the duration starts being measured in years, that's something else. I think parents are starting to understand this even though the media and health officials are studiously avoiding the subject.

That's why I hypothesized that if schools don't reopen, people are going to start organizing their own homegrown versions.

Well it is a moot point now because even though 75% of parents in my district chose to send their kids back (and some other wealthier districts had upwards of 85% choosing to send their kids back) the districts decided yesterday to start the school year out online, ignoring parents wishes. At this point I do not believe they will have a physical school year at all. I think they will get people acclimated to this with a "goal" of starting physical at Labor Day but it will never happen. I have no idea what I am going to do. My son does not learn sitting in front of a computer doing online math or science games that they call online school. He asks every day when he can go back to school and see his friends.

As an aside, do you think that the users of Facebook and other social media outlets lean liberal? People that I know are all for reopening but I am not sure they are representative of the avg citizen. So I like to sort of gauge what the avg person is thinking about all of this. I am not sure if Facebook is a good barometer or not. While Frisco ISD had 85% of parents choose to send their kids back and the district decided to do online instead, I would say that 90% of the comments to that news on Facebook were something along the lines of "thank you for keeping our kids safe!" or "Thanks Frisco for following the Science!" If that is really the way the avg person thinks then we may never have school again.

[Cortopassi]

Also what is also interesting to me is that the 75% choosing to go back goes against earlier questionnaires (and local news polls) where only 50% of parents were planning on sending their kids back. So either the polls were wrong, or parents opinions changed in the last month (with a surge in cases happening) or what parents "want" to do vs what they can actually do are two different things.

Interesting that those polls were that far off. Maybe opinions really have shifted in the past several weeks.

Are the schools going to reopen non-academic and afterschool activities too, or is it just academic classes? I worry that an entire generation of kids is going to be socially handicapped because their public lives are being dramatically curtailed. They're being taught to live in fear and they're spending most of their time on social media or playing video games, and they're not doing what kids normally do to prepare for college, career etc. A few weeks is one thing, but as the duration starts being measured in years, that's something else. I think parents are starting to understand this even though the media and health officials are studiously avoiding the subject.

That's why I hypothesized that if schools don't reopen, people are going to start organizing their own homegrown versions.

Activities are still happening, but severely different. Marching band program is 2 minutes long instead of 8, and all official competitions are cancelled. So the kids will still get together but not compete against other schools. I don't think too many will be that upset, actually!

Football is still up in the air. They are practicing, but real games TBD.

Indoor band concerts TBD.

Other close contact sports, I have no idea.

jalanlong, you are in a dark spot right now, but my feeling is this will not fly. If America rolls over for online school for more than one semester, I cannot imagine the consequences. I, for one, will be out protesting that.

I can only continue to hope that people realize this is almost a non-issue for kids. If you are a teacher, I don't know what to say, other than I talk with at least some who are fine with the risk, but also hear of others who don't want to risk it. I think a lot has to do with age.

[flyingpylon]

As an aside, do you think that the users of Facebook and other social media outlets lean liberal? People that I know are all for reopening but I am not sure they are representative of the avg citizen. So I like to sort of gauge what the avg person is thinking about all of this. I am not sure if Facebook is a good barometer or not. While Frisco ISD had 85% of parents choose to send their kids back and the district decided to do online instead, I would say that 90% of the comments to that news on Facebook were something along the lines of "thank you for keeping our kids safe!" or "Thanks Frisco for following the Science!" If that is really the way the avg person thinks then we may never have school again.

My observation of Facebook is that the loudest and most frequent posters absolutely lean left. I consider them to be "progressive", not "liberal". Whether what you see accurately represents the entire user base depends on who you are "friends" with.

But I have noticed that more moderate users tend not to post at all or have dismissed Facebook entirely, which makes it a big echo chamber most of the time.

Parler seems to be gaining some traction, as a twitter substitute, and bitchute for a YouTube substitute, not sure if face book has an uncensored competitor with any legs yet, but at least there some alternatives building a user base,

[Cortopassi]

But I have noticed that more moderate users tend not to post at all or have dismissed Facebook entirely, which makes it a big echo chamber most of the time.

Yeah. Exactly. I just perused the high school parents page. Just people on both sides jabbing at each other. It is terrible. I wanted to post something, but have decided not to. It won't appease or help anyone, and I have no interest in starting another chain on another group.

I actually am very close to just not looking at this forum for a few weeks as well. It's fun sometimes (not lately) to bitch and make your positions clear, but in the end we all have nearly zero control over everything we discuss -- the virus, opening schools, gold, stocks, bonds, politics, etc.