Coronavirus General Discussion

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whatchamacallit
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by whatchamacallit » Mon Dec 28, 2020 8:59 am

I was thinking which industry has most vested interest in getting covid mortality correct without the virtue signal.

Life insurance. Premiums have not increased.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/has-c ... 2020-12-07
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:22 am

MangoMan wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:20 am
whatchamacallit wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 8:59 am
I was thinking which industry has most vested interest in getting covid mortality correct without the virtue signal.

Life insurance. Premiums have not increased.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/has-c ... 2020-12-07
Very, very interesting.
Yes, that is a pretty good signal that the whole thing is extremely overblown.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Xan » Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:27 am

Doesn't that just mean that people who have their lives insured aren't statistically more likely to die? Pretty much that excludes anybody who's retired, doesn't it?

We do already know that in terms of life and death, people pre-retirement are at very little risk. That doesn't mean that it isn't killing too many people 60+. And it doesn't mean that younger people aren't suffering weird symptoms that can persist for a long time and perhaps cause lifelong damage.

Just playing devil's advocate here.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Xan » Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:42 am

MangoMan wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:40 am
Xan wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:27 am
Doesn't that just mean that people who have their lives insured aren't statistically more likely to die? Pretty much that excludes anybody who's retired, doesn't it?

We do already know that in terms of life and death, people pre-retirement are at very little risk. That doesn't mean that it isn't killing too many people 60+. And it doesn't mean that younger people aren't suffering weird symptoms that can persist for a long time and perhaps cause lifelong damage.

Just playing devil's advocate here.
That alone is of value in terms of the hysteria.
I should clarify that I'm saying that young people suffering such issues would likely not be reflected in life insurance premiums. But maybe it would be..?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Dec 28, 2020 10:47 am

There is this from the article:

University of Kentucky and Illinois State University economists did discover fewer policies being extended to the oldest of potential policyholders, above age 75. But even then, the cost of those premiums did not noticeably increase. By July, there was a 13.6% drop in the number of policies offered for one-, five- and 10-year terms offered to this demographic, according to the study distributed by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

So, they definitely were seeming to write fewer policies to older people.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Mon Dec 28, 2020 12:43 pm

Xan wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:27 am
Doesn't that just mean that people who have their lives insured aren't statistically more likely to die? Pretty much that excludes anybody who's retired, doesn't it?
Not really. There are new life insurance products that include the ability to draw from the policy while the insured is still alive, to cover medical expenses. It's an alternative to disability insurance. When I looked into it for my mom, I thought it was substantially better and I (along with her Morgan Stanley financial advisor) urged her to get it. There was a cutoff of age 80 (or 82, I can't quite remember) and she needed to pass a physical. In fact I'm thinking about signing up for this myself.

I'm not sure what the bar was for passing the physical, because she wasn't much of a test - at the time she was healthy except for mild hypertension. Assuming they would only block people with obvious late stage stuff like cancer or advanced heart disease, there could be a lot of sick elderly people with life insurance. If rates are holding constant, that is indeed a pretty good signal that despite the highly publicized COVID death counts, there isn't a lot in the way of years of life lost. (A statistic I would very much like to see, especially because no one seems interested in looking into it.)

Also, compared to most terminal conditions, COVID is fast and dirt cheap. It's mainly about supportive care, and it's all over in a matter of a few weeks. Compare that to cancer (IV infusions of shockingly expensive chemotherapy drugs, radiation, surgeries, on and on x years) or heart disease (very expensive interventional procedures and surgeries, expensive medications, also dragging on for years). This is surely reducing long-term costs for insurance companies and most especially for Medicare and Medicaid, though I have no idea how these would figure into life insurance premiums.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:55 pm

Megan McArdle commonly writes things that make sense.
If you watch the YouTube video of the now-infamous November meeting of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, you’ll hear Chairman José Romero thank everyone for a “robust discussion.” Shortly thereafter, the committee unanimously agreed that essential workers should get vaccinated ahead of the elderly, even though they’d been told this would mean up to 6 percent more deaths. This decision was supported in part by noting that America’s essential workers are more racially diverse than its senior citizens.

On Dec. 20, after the public belatedly noticed this attempted geronticide, the advisory panel walked it back, so I need not point out the many flaws of this reasoning. Instead, let’s dwell on the equally flawed process by which the committee reached its decision, because that itself is a symptom of much deeper problems that have plagued us since the beginning of the pandemic. link.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Mon Dec 28, 2020 7:10 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:55 pm
Megan McArdle commonly writes things that make sense.
If you watch the YouTube video of the now-infamous November meeting of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, you’ll hear Chairman José Romero thank everyone for a “robust discussion.” Shortly thereafter, the committee unanimously agreed that essential workers should get vaccinated ahead of the elderly, even though they’d been told this would mean up to 6 percent more deaths. This decision was supported in part by noting that America’s essential workers are more racially diverse than its senior citizens.

On Dec. 20, after the public belatedly noticed this attempted geronticide, the advisory panel walked it back, so I need not point out the many flaws of this reasoning. Instead, let’s dwell on the equally flawed process by which the committee reached its decision, because that itself is a symptom of much deeper problems that have plagued us since the beginning of the pandemic. link.
Always distressing to see a professional writer use cliches rather than using more descriptive words such as:
"retreated from" or "distanced themselves from" or "reversed themselves". I need more description to understand how and in what way they actually "walked it back".

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:44 am

🚧 I think this warrants a thread, Vinny. I’ll start one. 🚧

📍viewtopic.php?f=9&t=11723
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Tue Dec 29, 2020 12:59 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:44 am
🚧 I think this warrants a thread, Vinny. I’ll start one. 🚧

📍viewtopic.php?f=9&t=11723
Definitely!

I have in my my mind to start a topic called "Words", in which this discussion would definitely belong.

This forum has a lot of excellent writers who use their words well.

Vinny
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by doodle » Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:56 pm

https://readsector.com/republican-loui ... th-covid

Now dead. Newlyborn and young child. Received same treatment as Trump and Giuliani yet dies. Why is a 41 year old dying from respiratory illness after a few weeks?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by whatchamacallit » Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:57 am

doodle wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:56 pm
https://readsector.com/republican-loui ... th-covid

Now dead. Newlyborn and young child. Received same treatment as Trump and Giuliani yet dies. Why is a 41 year old dying from respiratory illness after a few weeks?
Are you referring to this? 41 year old congressman elect?

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/a ... 1.amp.html

Definitely scary. Makes you wonder what you can really do.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by SomeDude » Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:41 am

whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:57 am
doodle wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:56 pm
https://readsector.com/republican-loui ... th-covid

Now dead. Newlyborn and young child. Received same treatment as Trump and Giuliani yet dies. Why is a 41 year old dying from respiratory illness after a few weeks?
Are you referring to this? 41 year old congressman elect?

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/a ... 1.amp.html

Definitely scary. Makes you wonder what you can really do.
Didn't he die of a heart attack? He looks somewhat overweight, don't know if he had heart problems or if they run in his family, but influenza increases the chance of a heart attack by something like 600% in the week after diagnosis.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by doodle » Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:26 am

MangoMan wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:07 am
SomeDude wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:41 am
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:57 am
doodle wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:56 pm
https://readsector.com/republican-loui ... th-covid

Now dead. Newlyborn and young child. Received same treatment as Trump and Giuliani yet dies. Why is a 41 year old dying from respiratory illness after a few weeks?
Are you referring to this? 41 year old congressman elect?

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/a ... 1.amp.html

Definitely scary. Makes you wonder what you can really do.
Didn't he die of a heart attack? He looks somewhat overweight, don't know if he had heart problems or if they run in his family, but influenza increases the chance of a heart attack by something like 600% in the week after diagnosis.
Not at all overweight. But there may have been some other comorbidity. Or not.

Keep in mind tho, that seemingly healthy people also die of influenza every year. You just don't hear about it bc Covid
True, and a lot of this could be just hyper focusing on covid and these weird outlier events. The data does seem to suggest that it's about 10 times deadlier than average flu. 1% vs .1% death rate. It's just that it seems so rare that a healthy 40 year old...healthy enough to father children, run for political office, maintain normal weight etc. Dies from a respiratory illness after ten days of receiving same treatment as Giuliani and Trump and Christie presumably....all of whom are in much worse health it would appear on first glance. Someday I'm sure we will have a better understanding of this weird virus.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:38 am

The comorbidity aspect is such a slippery slope/point of contention and concern, in my opinion.

He/she was fat, continues down the slope of they ate terribly, didn't exercise, compromised their body, and it's THEIR fault. If that goes through my head at times when watching the news of a young (obese) person dying of Covid, I'm sure many others have done the same.

And that's terrible.

You can make a case that an 85 year old who gets it and gets their life cut short by a few days/months that it's not a major deal.

But that gets much harder when it is young people.

I'm not saying this to try to justify lockdowns; just stating what I think a lot of people may be thinking and it's terrible these thoughts go through my head.

If this virus mainly targeted kids, I'm sure we'd all have a different perspective.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:14 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:58 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:38 am
The comorbidity aspect is such a slippery slope/point of contention and concern, in my opinion.

He/she was fat, continues down the slope of they ate terribly, didn't exercise, compromised their body, and it's THEIR fault. If that goes through my head at times when watching the news of a young (obese) person dying of Covid, I'm sure many others have done the same.

And that's terrible.

You can make a case that an 85 year old who gets it and gets their life cut short by a few days/months that it's not a major deal.

But that gets much harder when it is young people.

I'm not saying this to try to justify lockdowns; just stating what I think a lot of people may be thinking and it's terrible these thoughts go through my head.

If this virus mainly targeted kids, I'm sure we'd all have a different perspective.
If they get diabetes from being fat and not exercising, is that THEIR fault? If they then need their foot amputated or develop some other diabetes related issue that cuts their life short or makes it less pleasant, is that THEIR fault? If a chain smoker gets lung cancer, is that THEIR fault? If not, whose fault is it? I'm not a sure I understand your logic.
My logic kind of is:

--Person in 20s/30s/40s is obese/overweight
--Yeah, it is messing with their body, and yeah, maybe a majority aren't doing anything about it
--But in general, it will take decades of damage to to get to the stuff you describe and/or death
--And instead of decades, Covid turns that into days/weeks

My thinking, as usual, is certainly not black and white.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Xan » Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:54 pm

It killed Mary Ann?!!? I've been advocating peaceful coexistence with this thing, but this means WAR.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:17 pm

Damn, I’ve been watching her for a few minutes on weekday mornings because it’s on when I feed the cat. Sweet MaryAnn.
You’re right, Xan, it *is* war.

I also recently saw the episode of Simpsons in which Moe had auditioned for a role in a soap. He overheard the producer arguing with the casting director. “I thought you said to get someone ugly.” “I meant MaryAnn ugly, not ____ ugly.”
O0 Which is to say, hott.

I wonder if Bill Gross knows.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:09 pm

doodle wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:26 am
The data does seem to suggest that it's about 10 times deadlier than average flu. 1% vs .1% death rate.
The Decimal Point That Blew Up the World
John Ioannidis sums up the disparity by age with the following infection fatality rate for people under the age of 70: 0.05%. This conclusion has been peer-reviewed and published by the World Health Organization.

How does this compare with the flu? We do not really know. As science journalist Shin Jie Yong has written, “There seems to be no data on age-specific IFR of the seasonal flu.” What this means is that crucial testimony of Fauci from March 11, in which he casually predicted based on bad numbers, that Covid would be ten times worse than the flu, can neither be confirmed or denied based on age-specific severe outcomes.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Thu Dec 31, 2020 11:34 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:38 am
If this virus mainly targeted kids, I'm sure we'd all have a different perspective.
You mean like the 1918 flu, in which the bulk of fatalities were in young adults and kids?

Not really, then. There are way too many comparisons of COVID to the 1918 flu. In terms of #deaths/unit population and #years of life lost, there is just no comparison. And by that I mean that the 1918 flu was an order of magnitude worse than COVID.

I would guess that if George McGovern had kept his stupid opinions on diet to himself in the 1970s, and Ancel Keyes went into, say, dentistry instead of pathology, and the USDA never had a chance to get its grubby little paws on grocery store shelves, COVID might not have become such a monster. It can indeed lead to very severe illness - but in almost all cases it's in people with some manifestation of metabolic syndrome. Given that even children and teenagers are now commonly showing signs of severe metabolic derangements, it's hardly a surprise that people in their 40s are dying.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:09 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 11:34 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:38 am
If this virus mainly targeted kids, I'm sure we'd all have a different perspective.
You mean like the 1918 flu, in which the bulk of fatalities were in young adults and kids?

Not really, then. There are way too many comparisons of COVID to the 1918 flu. In terms of #deaths/unit population and #years of life lost, there is just no comparison. And by that I mean that the 1918 flu was an order of magnitude worse than COVID.

I would guess that if George McGovern had kept his stupid opinions on diet to himself in the 1970s, and Ancel Keyes went into, say, dentistry instead of pathology, and the USDA never had a chance to get its grubby little paws on grocery store shelves, COVID might not have become such a monster. It can indeed lead to very severe illness - but in almost all cases it's in people with some manifestation of metabolic syndrome. Given that even children and teenagers are now commonly showing signs of severe metabolic derangements, it's hardly a surprise that people in their 40s are dying.
I agree.

What I gather from reading history of early Chicago mainly, 1800s to early 1900s, life, in general, was harder, disease more rampant, and early death was much more of a given with Cholera and dysentery, for example, seemingly killing people all the time. And they just knew a lot less about what was happening.

http://www.encyclopedia.chicagohistory. ... s/432.html
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by boglerdude » Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:16 pm

Another died with VS of video, for posterity
https://cdn.jwplayer.com/players/iTkquSLd-EAYoNgFe.html

I expected it to go away after the election. Didn't know Trump could refuse to concede, + that people would accept the narrative that he couldve prevented the crisis with "better management". So they'll keep riling up the libs until he's out.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:42 pm

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Libertarian666 » Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:39 pm

flyingpylon wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:42 pm
Image
But this is the first time that has ever happened!
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