Coronavirus General Discussion

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pugchief
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pugchief » Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:14 am

I knew that children had a high mortality rate for the 1918 bug. But as you noted, it also killed a bunch of folks over 65. The only logical conclusion one could draw is the one I made. Maybe it's the wrong conclusion for 1918, but it sure as heck won't be for Covid-19.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Tue Sep 07, 2021 3:31 pm

glennds wrote:
Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:26 am
Pug, I think you have a misconception about the age mortality pattern of the 1918 flu pandemic.
….
There's still a lot that is not known or understood about the 1918 pandemic.

But as to Vinny's chart,
… What does age adjusted mean?

There’s some info here, Glenn -
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/statnt/statnt06rv.pdf
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by D1984 » Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:27 pm

pugchief wrote:
Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:01 am
Mark Leavy wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:21 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:21 pm
https://uca.edu/efirm/facultystaff/jhorpedahl/

Capture.JPG
Vinny, are you posting random screenshots with no explanation again?

The colors don’t excite me.
The distribution non gaussian.
The grammar is passable.

What the hell are you posting, Vinny?
No worries, Mark. If Vinny is incapable of posting links or screenshots with his own commentary, I will take a stab at the last picture. It looks to me like after the death rate spiked in 1918, it dropped precipitously in the 2 years after. My conclusion is the Spanish Flu rapidly killed off some weak portion of the population that would have died in the next 3-4 years, so there were less of them left in the next few years to die bc they already did. 8)

Now to really be 8) , I will predict that if you look at this same graph 5 years from now, the same variance will occur at the right end of the X axis.
I may very well be misinterpreting the graph's title ( "Percentage Change from 5-year Average" ) but if the mortality each year is in fact being compared to the previous five year's average mortality (e.g. take the mortality for the current year and compare it to the average mortality of the last five years.....i.e. total mortality for all those five years added together and then divided by five to obtain an average mortality over those five years) then of course the mortality rate for 1919, 1920, 1921, and 1922 would show hefty declines; the five year average for the years before them included 1918 which was--due to the 1918 flu pandemic--horrendous in terms of mortality versus a more normal year. Once 1918 dropped out of the previous five years' average (or at least once it got mostly "balanced out" by the four fairly typical years of 1919, 1920, 1921, and 1922 when they were taking a previous five year average to use to compare 1923's mortality too) things seemed to go more back to normal.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by glennds » Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:01 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Sep 07, 2021 3:31 pm
glennds wrote:
Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:26 am
Pug, I think you have a misconception about the age mortality pattern of the 1918 flu pandemic.
….
There's still a lot that is not known or understood about the 1918 pandemic.

But as to Vinny's chart,
… What does age adjusted mean?

There’s some info here, Glenn -
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/statnt/statnt06rv.pdf
dualstow- thank you for that info
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:06 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:17 pm
Watched the Florida-ND game last night, and listening to the announcers and portions of other news shows related to Covid...it sure seems that for the most part people have thrown in the towel on gathering rules and regulations. No masks, packed football stadiums across America, and this time, more like an oh well, we gotta figure out how to live with it attitude.

The most places have been able to push without much pushback is to wear them indoors and in schools. We literally get 1-3x a day Covid 19 positive case notifications from the high school (~2000 kids). But the text is "This letter is to inform you that an individual at Buffalo Grove High School has tested positive for COVID-19. The individual was last in the building on 9-2-21. Individuals who are fully vaccinated and remain asymptomatic are not required to quarantine. "

I can live with that for now.

When you see curves like this (Kentucky), that would have brought the hammer down 9 months ago, but now, barely a whimper, do you all who think the man is still using this as control really is?

I understand there are outlier situations like for Jalalong, but I am in blue IL with little concern.

Image
If you go on to any social media site and read the comments about these college football games, you will see that 65% of the comments are from people bemoaning the fact that it is because of these people and their outdoor gatherings that Covid will never leave, that we will never get back to normal etc. So I think there are still a LOT of people who would desperately like to control these gatherings, including Fauci.

As much as I love people out having fun not giving a crap what politicians say, it does piss me off that 60,000 people can do that but my son cannot do a Choir concert and I cannot do a meeting at the school with his 6 teachers due to Covid restrictions. People can always go to football games in the future but my son only has so many years in school. This is now year 2 1/2 with restrictions on social activities and constant distancing from peers and I don't see it ending anytime soon.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:18 pm

I truly feel for you jalanlong and your son. We are doing full marching band with our first competition Saturday. There are no outdoor limits. Only limit indoor is wearing a mask.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:52 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:06 pm
As much as I love people out having fun not giving a crap what politicians say, it does piss me off that 60,000 people can do that but my son cannot do a Choir concert and I cannot do a meeting at the school with his 6 teachers due to Covid restrictions. People can always go to football games in the future but my son only has so many years in school. This is now year 2 1/2 with restrictions on social activities and constant distancing from peers and I don't see it ending anytime soon.
Your son should have his choir concert and you should have a meeting with his teachers. But on the other hand, how much revenue do those activities generate for the school? Not trying to be an ass, but there's no question that money factors in to the decision making process.

Also, the window for attending a college football game as a student is approximately 4 years. For some people at some schools, that is a very big deal. Many of them lost 25% of their opportunities to do that last year. Obviously the importance of that depends on your perspective.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:55 pm

flyingpylon wrote:
Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:52 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:06 pm
As much as I love people out having fun not giving a crap what politicians say, it does piss me off that 60,000 people can do that but my son cannot do a Choir concert and I cannot do a meeting at the school with his 6 teachers due to Covid restrictions. People can always go to football games in the future but my son only has so many years in school. This is now year 2 1/2 with restrictions on social activities and constant distancing from peers and I don't see it ending anytime soon.
Your son should have his choir concert and you should have a meeting with his teachers. But on the other hand, how much revenue do those activities generate for the school? Not trying to be an ass, but there's no question that money factors in to the decision making process.

Also, the window for attending a college football game as a student is approximately 4 years. For some people at some schools, that is a very big deal. Many of them lost 25% of their opportunities to do that last year. Obviously the importance of that depends on your perspective.
As a student then 4 years. But as an alumni or just in general it is a lifetime. My son cannot go back and do a Choir concert. Same with last year..in 5th grade all of the students in the Spring go camping overnight at a nature reserve. That was cancelled due to Covid even though transmissions outside in a setting like that have to be minimal. He will never get that experience now.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:10 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:55 pm
flyingpylon wrote:
Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:52 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:06 pm
As much as I love people out having fun not giving a crap what politicians say, it does piss me off that 60,000 people can do that but my son cannot do a Choir concert and I cannot do a meeting at the school with his 6 teachers due to Covid restrictions. People can always go to football games in the future but my son only has so many years in school. This is now year 2 1/2 with restrictions on social activities and constant distancing from peers and I don't see it ending anytime soon.
Your son should have his choir concert and you should have a meeting with his teachers. But on the other hand, how much revenue do those activities generate for the school? Not trying to be an ass, but there's no question that money factors in to the decision making process.

Also, the window for attending a college football game as a student is approximately 4 years. For some people at some schools, that is a very big deal. Many of them lost 25% of their opportunities to do that last year. Obviously the importance of that depends on your perspective.
As a student then 4 years. But as an alumni or just in general it is a lifetime. My son cannot go back and do a Choir concert. Same with last year..in 5th grade all of the students in the Spring go camping overnight at a nature reserve. That was cancelled due to Covid even though transmissions outside in a setting like that have to be minimal. He will never get that experience now.
Not really arguing with you, just pointing out that at the college level and above there are additional factors and as we know money changes everything. This stopped being all about health and safety a long time ago.

When this all started my kids were a senior and freshman in high school and believe me, countless opportunities have been lost. So I hear you. We are all at the mercy of the people in charge... if we don't like it all we can do is go along, refuse to comply, try to get rid of them, or leave.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pugchief » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:16 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:06 pm

As much as I love people out having fun not giving a crap what politicians say, it does piss me off that 60,000 people can do that but my son cannot do a Choir concert and I cannot do a meeting at the school with his 6 teachers due to Covid restrictions. People can always go to football games in the future but my son only has so many years in school. This is now year 2 1/2 with restrictions on social activities and constant distancing from peers and I don't see it ending anytime soon.
I feel for you, too. But I don't understand what one thing has to do with the other. It's not like people going to college football games is directly affecting your kid's school. And if you're going down the logic road, don't bother. There is no logic in the Covid rule book.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pugchief » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:20 pm

And along that vein, Pritzker (governor of IL) was questioned today by a republican state congressperson about having specific metrics for lifting the mask mandates. Of course, he won't state them, because they don't exist. Instead, he blathered about vaccination rates and herd immunity. I thought we decided that due to mutations there would never be herd immunity?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mountaineer » Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:03 am

flyingpylon wrote:
Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:10 pm

When this all started my kids were a senior and freshman in high school and believe me, countless opportunities have been lost. So I hear you. We are all at the mercy of the people in charge... if we don't like it all we can do is go along, refuse to comply, try to get rid of them, or leave..
Well said! Or we can moan about it on the internet and social media. >:D
Everything is a gift from God. Something to ponder, and confess, and for which to give thanks 8) . Or not - and take your chances >:D .
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:50 am

vnatale wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:17 pm
https://apps.texastribune.org/features/ ... cases-map/

Capture.JPGCapture1.JPG
The 7 day avg deaths in Dallas and Collin County are between 1-7 over the last month. So I am going to go out on a limb and say that just like in the initial surge, the majority of those Texas deaths are concentrated in border counties in a very specific demographic.

My county, Collin, has 1.3 million population and 900 Covid deaths. Hidaglo County on the border has 800,000 population and almost 4,000 Covid deaths.

Whether or not you think that makes any difference is up to you. However, I do think the media uses the Texas stats to put in your mind that a bunch of freedom loving, anti-govt Trump people are clogging up the Texas hospitals and causing the high death count.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by barrett » Fri Sep 10, 2021 8:18 am

jalanlong wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:50 am
However, I do think the media uses the Texas stats to put in your mind that a bunch of freedom loving, anti-govt Trump people are clogging up the Texas hospitals and causing the high death count.
Or willfully ignoring that Texas has a population of roughly 29,000,000. It's extremely annoying that "news" outlets deliberately deal in total numbers as opposed to rates/percentages.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Fri Sep 10, 2021 8:54 am

barrett wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 8:18 am
jalanlong wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:50 am
However, I do think the media uses the Texas stats to put in your mind that a bunch of freedom loving, anti-govt Trump people are clogging up the Texas hospitals and causing the high death count.
Or willfully ignoring that Texas has a population of roughly 29,000,000. It's extremely annoying that "news" outlets deliberately deal in total numbers as opposed to rates/percentages.
Whenever I quote the actual percentage of deaths to someone who is obsessed with Covid, they always respond with the "percentages wont matter when it is your child/spouse/parent." You cannot reason with people who are all emotion.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:03 am

jalanlong wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 8:54 am

barrett wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 8:18 am

jalanlong wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:50 am

However, I do think the media uses the Texas stats to put in your mind that a bunch of freedom loving, anti-govt Trump people are clogging up the Texas hospitals and causing the high death count.


Or willfully ignoring that Texas has a population of roughly 29,000,000. It's extremely annoying that "news" outlets deliberately deal in total numbers as opposed to rates/percentages.


Whenever I quote the actual percentage of deaths to someone who is obsessed with Covid, they always respond with the "percentages wont matter when it is your child/spouse/parent." You cannot reason with people who are all emotion.


Agree...
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:18 am

That Time the White House Almost Sent Masks to All Americans

EXCERPT
Early in the pandemic, before mask-wearing became politicized, one official hit on the idea of sending masks to every household.


https://www.thedailybeast.com/that-time ... -americans
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:07 pm

Hal wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 6:55 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 6:39 pm
I think we're seeing a non-hypothetical situation playing out right now that demonstrates that a lot of people have sleeper Nazi-like authoritarian tendencies, I think Australia is a clear example.
Say no more....
https://www.rt.com/news/534078-australi ... d-economy/
HOLD THE ABSOLUTE FUCK UP
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:52 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:07 pm
HOLD THE ABSOLUTE FUCK UP
Worst headline I have ever read! Let’s hope it’s not true.
RIP COLIN POWELL, 84.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pugchief » Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:34 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:52 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:07 pm
HOLD THE ABSOLUTE FUCK UP
Worst headline I have ever read! Let’s hope it’s not true.
Drink spirits, buy in handles, multiple varieties, harder to police.
If I lived in AU right now, I would seriously think about relocating.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Hal » Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:03 pm

pugchief wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:34 pm
dualstow wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:52 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:07 pm
HOLD THE ABSOLUTE FUCK UP
Worst headline I have ever read! Let’s hope it’s not true.
Drink spirits, buy in handles, multiple varieties, harder to police.
If I lived in AU right now, I would seriously think about relocating.
If they give you "permission" to leave...
https://www.theepochtimes.com/more-and- ... =ZeroHedge
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pugchief » Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:04 pm

Hal wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:03 pm
pugchief wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:34 pm
dualstow wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:52 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:07 pm
HOLD THE ABSOLUTE FUCK UP
Worst headline I have ever read! Let’s hope it’s not true.
Drink spirits, buy in handles, multiple varieties, harder to police.
If I lived in AU right now, I would seriously think about relocating.
If they give you "permission" to leave...
https://www.theepochtimes.com/more-and- ... =ZeroHedge
If they won't let you leave, it's worse than I thought and it's probably too late. You have basically become the USSR.
People are fleeing blue states for red in the US in record numbers. I'd love to see them try to prevent inter-state migration here.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by tomfoolery » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:14 pm

No, no, no, Australia is not letting people leave for their own protection. It’s for their own good. Like when East Germany built the Berlin Wall.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:39 am

In case you are wondering why you haven't heard anything about the Florida Delta surge for a while....

From Florida Covid Dashboard. How to explain such a rapid decline?

Image
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by D1984 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:22 am

pp4me wrote:
Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:39 am
In case you are wondering why you haven't heard anything about the Florida Delta surge for a while....

From Florida Covid Dashboard. How to explain such a rapid decline?

Image
I'm not exactly sure where you're getting the above data from....but Florida's own Dept of Health data shows that from 9/3/21 to 9/9/21 they had 353 COVID-19 deaths.

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partn ... latest.pdf

That said, if they do see a rapid decline in the next few weeks I wouldn't be too surprised (I'm not saying they necessarily will...just that it's possible); IIRC the UK and India had a similar Delta-variant powered surge and then deaths started dropping fairly quickly (although obviously not to a seven-day total of zero or near zero).
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