Predictions for covid case count 12:01 AM 3/22/2020

[WiseOne]

I heard that non-COVID ER visits have gotten a lot scarcer. Everyone's wondering, what happened to all the strokes and heart attacks? It's weird. But I guess some people are just riding it out at home because the idea of going to an ER packed with COVID patients is not so appealing.

I've been tracking daily cases in NYC, and it's an odd pattern....looks like it's coming in waves. The first big wave started March 22, and that's when ill-prepared hospitals started getting overwhelmed. Then the numbers trended down for about a week. Now, just in the last 2 days there's another big wave: daily cases abruptly DOUBLED, from the 2k-3k range to 5k-7k/day. The Comfort & the Javits field hospital got here just in time. They're saying they won't treat COVID cases, but I'm just laughing at that concept. Good luck with that.

[dualstow]

Glad you’re posting, WiseOne. I was going to ask you to check in.

[WiseOne]

I figured I should. Too busy with random bits of work, zoom meetings and family angst to keep up with all the cool discussions like the one about Euler's equation, but it's great to read them anyway. And the nice Monty Python reference!

[Smith1776]

I'd like to put down 1 gram of gold on 7.53 billion cases by the end of 2020.

[dualstow]

I'd like to put down 1 gram of gold on 7.53 billion cases by the end of 2020.

Little do you know that the whole planet has already been infected with the Forgetting Virus of 2015. It has no symptoms except that it causes us to keep forgetting that we’ve been infected. Only now it’s messing with our ability to remember the coronavirus cases. Wait, I need to write this down with something indelible...

[Libertarian666]

I heard that non-COVID ER visits have gotten a lot scarcer. Everyone's wondering, what happened to all the strokes and heart attacks? It's weird. But I guess some people are just riding it out at home because the idea of going to an ER packed with COVID patients is not so appealing.

I've been tracking daily cases in NYC, and it's an odd pattern....looks like it's coming in waves. The first big wave started March 22, and that's when ill-prepared hospitals started getting overwhelmed. Then the numbers trended down for about a week. Now, just in the last 2 days there's another big wave: daily cases abruptly DOUBLED, from the 2k-3k range to 5k-7k/day. The Comfort & the Javits field hospital got here just in time. They're saying they won't treat COVID cases, but I'm just laughing at that concept. Good luck with that.

There are a lot fewer traffic accidents because no one is going out.

As for the Comfort and the Javits hospitals, if they can use the 5-minute test that has also just arrived, they might be able to keep those hospitals uncontaminated.

And as to why the cases come in waves, I think that's because they are the results of mass infection events like the jamming of thousands of people into a small space for hours on March 15th (https://ktla.com/news/coronavirus/some- ... ronavirus/). That was the result of probably the most incompetent and dangerous emergency management I've ever seen.

If I had been the person in charge of an airline or an airport on that day, I would have reserved time for each airplane to be able to be offloaded separately, each 1/2 row separated by 6 feet. If people had to wait for hours to get off, too bad: it would have reduced the spread dramatically.

[WiseOne]

And as to why the cases come in waves, I think that's because they are the results of mass infection events like the jamming of thousands of people into a small space for hours on March 15th (https://ktla.com/news/coronavirus/some- ... ronavirus/). That was the result of probably the most incompetent and dangerous emergency management I've ever seen.

If I had been the person in charge of an airline or an airport on that day, I would have reserved time for each airplane to be able to be offloaded separately, each 1/2 row separated by 6 feet. If people had to wait for hours to get off, too bad: it would have reduced the spread dramatically.

I think you are exactly right. It fits perfectly with the coronavirus average incubation period of 5-7 days. Assuming most people became infectious around that time, that would also explain this second wave.

New York On Pause was implemented on the 16th and it took a while for people to start complying with it. Hopefully now that people are taking it more seriously, there won't be a third wave - and the 2nd wave will start to peter out just like the first one did, with daily case counts decreasing and hospital COVID census dropping slowly. To be frank, a 3rd wave would put us into Italy territory.

Hopefully most areas of the country will experience the pandemic without these wave-inducing public health catastrophes - that will make it much easier to manage. Unfortunately...any place that is a big Europe destination plus New Orleans (with the Mardi Gras fiasco) is probably seeing the same thing.

[Libertarian666]

And as to why the cases come in waves, I think that's because they are the results of mass infection events like the jamming of thousands of people into a small space for hours on March 15th (https://ktla.com/news/coronavirus/some- ... ronavirus/). That was the result of probably the most incompetent and dangerous emergency management I've ever seen.

If I had been the person in charge of an airline or an airport on that day, I would have reserved time for each airplane to be able to be offloaded separately, each 1/2 row separated by 6 feet. If people had to wait for hours to get off, too bad: it would have reduced the spread dramatically.

I think you are exactly right. It fits perfectly with the coronavirus average incubation period of 5-7 days. Assuming most people became infectious around that time, that would also explain this second wave.

New York On Pause was implemented on the 16th and it took a while for people to start complying with it. Hopefully now that people are taking it more seriously, there won't be a third wave - and the 2nd wave will start to peter out just like the first one did, with daily case counts decreasing and hospital COVID census dropping slowly. To be frank, a 3rd wave would put us into Italy territory.

Hopefully most areas of the country will experience the pandemic without these wave-inducing public health catastrophes - that will make it much easier to manage. Unfortunately...any place that is a big Europe destination plus New Orleans (with the Mardi Gras fiasco) is probably seeing the same thing.

I guess I could play an epidemiologist on TV.

[Libertarian666]

And as to why the cases come in waves, I think that's because they are the results of mass infection events like the jamming of thousands of people into a small space for hours on March 15th (https://ktla.com/news/coronavirus/some- ... ronavirus/). That was the result of probably the most incompetent and dangerous emergency management I've ever seen.

If I had been the person in charge of an airline or an airport on that day, I would have reserved time for each airplane to be able to be offloaded separately, each 1/2 row separated by 6 feet. If people had to wait for hours to get off, too bad: it would have reduced the spread dramatically.

I think you are exactly right. It fits perfectly with the coronavirus average incubation period of 5-7 days. Assuming most people became infectious around that time, that would also explain this second wave.

New York On Pause was implemented on the 16th and it took a while for people to start complying with it. Hopefully now that people are taking it more seriously, there won't be a third wave - and the 2nd wave will start to peter out just like the first one did, with daily case counts decreasing and hospital COVID census dropping slowly. To be frank, a 3rd wave would put us into Italy territory.

Hopefully most areas of the country will experience the pandemic without these wave-inducing public health catastrophes - that will make it much easier to manage. Unfortunately...any place that is a big Europe destination plus New Orleans (with the Mardi Gras fiasco) is probably seeing the same thing.

You had better warn your management and anyone else you can that there is going to be another wave, probably in another 4 or 5 days. I doubt that the pause was complied with in time.

[dualstow]

I predict that seasonal allergies will be the new stigma this spring.
Headlines next month: “I sneezed at the grocery store and everyone looked at me like I had pulled out a gun.”

[WiseOne]

I predict that seasonal allergies will be the new stigma this spring.
Headlines next month: “I sneezed at the grocery store and everyone looked at me like I had pulled out a gun.”

Yeah, we all have to wear masks now, so no problem sneezing at the grocery store.

Tech - there was a small third wave but it's receding rapidly now (pending #s from this am). You have to look at NYC numbers - if you look at NYS at a whole it will be swallowed up by the fact that the epicenter is now moving to Long Island.

If other locales can avoid these intense waves, the pandemic won't be nearly as bad. They are more likely to happen in the states that are still allowing mass events - sorry Republican governors, but you are being stupid about this.

[Libertarian666]

I predict that seasonal allergies will be the new stigma this spring.
Headlines next month: “I sneezed at the grocery store and everyone looked at me like I had pulled out a gun.”

Yeah, we all have to wear masks now, so no problem sneezing at the grocery store.

Tech - there was a small third wave but it's receding rapidly now (pending #s from this am). You have to look at NYC numbers - if you look at NYS at a whole it will be swallowed up by the fact that the epicenter is now moving to Long Island.

If other locales can avoid these intense waves, the pandemic won't be nearly as bad. They are more likely to happen in the states that are still allowing mass events - sorry Republican governors, but you are being stupid about this.

Glad to hear that it hasn't been as bad as it might have been.
FYI, we have a Republican governor and we are under a stay-at-home directive.
Now how much good such orders will do is another matter.

[Tyler]

I heard that non-COVID ER visits have gotten a lot scarcer. Everyone's wondering, what happened to all the strokes and heart attacks? It's weird. But I guess some people are just riding it out at home because the idea of going to an ER packed with COVID patients is not so appealing.

I've been tracking daily cases in NYC, and it's an odd pattern....looks like it's coming in waves.

I've read similar stories about falling strokes and heart attacks in hospitals. Sadly, more people are simply dying in their homes as they are either afraid to go to the ER or emergency services are too strained to get to them in time. That also applies to COVID-19 victims, who apparently aren't being included in official totals if they die at home before being tested. So NY is probably undercounting deaths.

I also wonder if that could be contributing to the waves you're seeing. It may not mean that there are actually more or less cases. Just more or less cases that make it to the hospital and into the official count. For example, it would be interesting to see how the waves correlate to emergency response staffing levels.

[WiseOne]

My friend's son is a paramedic. He says the number of calls he gets has gone up and down roughly in sync with my plot. So have hospital admissions. There are a lot of variables to be sure, like increases in test availability, but it looks like the wave effect is real.

[WiseOne]

Absolutely. It will take time before there is official recognition, and then there will probably be a slow, gradual rollout. Actually I now think complete lifting of the lockdown, like permitting mass gatherings, won't happen until Mr. Vaccine comes along. They will probably start with certain groups of people, asymptomatic, antibody positive for example.