Is Denninger right about the coronavirus?

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technovelist
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Is Denninger right about the coronavirus?

Post by technovelist » Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:15 pm

flyingpylon
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Re: Is Denninger right about the coronavirus?

Post by flyingpylon » Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:47 pm

But wait, there's more...

THE 15 DAY LIE: DON'T BE STUPID
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Re: Is Denninger right about the coronavirus?

Post by pugchief » Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:06 pm

As I said in the other thread where this link was posted, this makes the most sense to me of any opinion piece on CV that I have read.
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Re: Is Denninger right about the coronavirus?

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:07 pm

flyingpylon wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:47 pm
But wait, there's more...

THE 15 DAY LIE: DON'T BE STUPID
Interesting and, of course, alarming...

I am no epidemiologist, and have no idea whether this guy is right or wrong, but interesting nonetheless.

All I can think about is how the PP would fair if the 18 month scenario really played out how this guys says it would.... stock portion to be worthless, but bonds, cash, and gold to still be worth something?
For the money you can't afford to lose, why would you invest it in anything other than the PP? ???
Check out the Goldsmith PP: https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=9613
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Re: Is Denninger right about the coronavirus?

Post by Tyler » Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:29 pm

I've gotta be honest. Even if the author makes good points, the overuse of bold and all caps lessens his credibility. It reads just like any number of fringe doom porn newsletters I've seen over the years (all fear and blame with no real solutions), and frankly I don't think it's helpful right now.
Mechanical engineer, history buff, treasure manager... totally not Ben Gates
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Re: Is Denninger right about the coronavirus?

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:30 pm

Tyler wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:29 pm
I've gotta be honest. Even if the author makes good points, the overuse of bold and all caps lessens his credibility. It reads just like any number of fringe doom porn newsletters I've seen over the years (all fear and blame with no real solutions), and frankly I don't think it's helpful right now.
It reads like a biology version of Zero Hedge.
For the money you can't afford to lose, why would you invest it in anything other than the PP? ???
Check out the Goldsmith PP: https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=9613
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Re: Is Denninger right about the coronavirus?

Post by technovelist » Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:42 pm

Tyler wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:29 pm
I've gotta be honest. Even if the author makes good points, the overuse of bold and all caps lessens his credibility. It reads just like any number of fringe doom porn newsletters I've seen over the years (all fear and blame with no real solutions), and frankly I don't think it's helpful right now.
Yes I wish he wouldn’t do that. But that doesn’t mean he’s wrong.
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Re: Is Denninger right about the coronavirus?

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:32 pm

pugchief wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:06 pm
As I said in the other thread where this link was posted, this makes the most sense to me of any opinion piece on CV that I have read.
I just read it ONCE. Totally scary. I'm now going to read it again more slowly and then pass it on to many others.

Vinny
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Is Denninger right about the coronavirus?

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:56 pm

flyingpylon wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:47 pm
But wait, there's more...

THE 15 DAY LIE: DON'T BE STUPID
Just sent the following to those in my organization:

"Just read this extremely lengthy piece TWICE. It puts into question what we and the rest of the country are doing. For the last several days I kept wondering how is everyone going to continue to get paid when economic activity just spirals downward, when organizations have such depressed revenues. A key line from the article:

"Our choice now is whether we destroy our economy at the same time we take the hit from this virus."


What Trump Is Doing WILL Fail

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=3519966"

Vinny
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Is Denninger right about the coronavirus?

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:58 pm

I have read Market Ticker on and off for 10+ years. I keep on doing it because it is entertaining, but at this point, he is such a blowhard and know it all (he truly does seem to know a lot about everything) that he takes his own opinion as gospel, and I roll my eyes more and more.

Vinny, you especially, if you haven't read him, go back and digest the past few years of his writings. He is not a guy I'd like to have a beer with. He's condescending, generally calls everyone idiots, and if he is right on some of his more major stuff, his timelines have mostly been off. **But I am a big picture generalities guy, and I am likely glossing over some stuff he's gotten right.**

And I'm not saying at all that any of his math is wrong. He's just got the personality that pisses a lot of people off, whether he is dead on right or not.

And, in my opinion, it won't be allowed to go that far. If it gets that bad, I am going to believe the government says we can't do this anymore, we have to let it run it's course, we are lifting all restrictions. It is possibly a death sentence for a lot of people, but between that and the destruction of the economy, I think the former is chosen.

Also, whether true or not, it seems China has slowed it drastically, so that is a real world (not math on paper) datapoint.
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Re: Is Denninger right about the coronavirus?

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:11 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:58 pm
I have read Market Ticker on and off for 10+ years. I keep on doing it because it is entertaining, but at this point, he is such a blowhard and know it all (he truly does seem to know a lot about everything) that he takes his own opinion as gospel, and I roll my eyes more and more.

Vinny, you especially, if you haven't read him, go back and digest the past few years of his writings. He is not a guy I'd like to have a beer with. He's condescending, generally calls everyone idiots, and if he is right on some of his more major stuff, his timelines have mostly been off. **But I am a big picture generalities guy, and I am likely glossing over some stuff he's gotten right.**

And I'm not saying at all that any of his math is wrong. He's just got the personality that pisses a lot of people off, whether he is dead on right or not.

And, in my opinion, it won't be allowed to go that far. If it gets that bad, I am going to believe the government says we can't do this anymore, we have to let it run it's course, we are lifting all restrictions. It is possibly a death sentence for a lot of people, but between that and the destruction of the economy, I think the former is chosen.

Also, whether true or not, it seems China has slowed it drastically, so that is a real world (not math on paper) datapoint.
I had never prior heard of him prior to tonight. As I stated I twice read what he wrote. And, then went on to read the follow up piece. And, sent both on to many people. I was even moved to spent nearly $30 on the hard cover version of his new book but saw it was not going to be here until Monday. What was up with Amazon Prime? Did investigations on that and found an article that stated that due to the virus the delivery is no longer two days but six or seven. That made me just buy the Kindle version for $20, which means I have it now. Will start reading it at some point tomorrow. And, if compelling enough, will read the whole thing tomorrow.

Reading his article did provoke me to send the following to a friend in an email earlier tonight:

"I don't know if you have yet read the totally scary piece I sent out.

But here is the big question for you ....I know that in the past you told me that our going to war is justified if it protects our source of oil. I believe you may have said this to me in the context of the first Iraq War in 1990. And, the clear statement from you was anything that jeopardizes our way of life is worth going to war over. Now at that time, neither you or I were in the military, were in no danger of being in the military nor had family that was in the military. Therefore we would have reaped all the benefits at no costs.

Now would you be willing to do the following...

Line up ALL the over 50 people in this country (obviously me and you included). Expose each and every one of those people to the virus. Those who live live and those who don't die. From almost all reports few under 50 years old and healthy suffer any severe effects, let alone die. Kevin Durant has just tested positive and he has NO effects.

Isn't that saying that this virus is preying on the weak and not a concern to either the healthy or young or both?

Therefore to save our economy for ALL this people of our country, especially for the young who have not lived as long as us, would you be willing to support that measure?"

Reading his piece led me to thinking and writing something like that!

Vinny
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Is Denninger right about the coronavirus?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:20 am

vnatale wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:11 pm
Now would you be willing to do the following...

Line up ALL the over 50 people in this country (obviously me and you included). Expose each and every one of those people to the virus. Those who live live and those who don't die. From almost all reports few under 50 years old and healthy suffer any severe effects, let alone die. Kevin Durant has just tested positive and he has NO effects.

Isn't that saying that this virus is preying on the weak and not a concern to either the healthy or young or both?

Therefore to save our economy for ALL this people of our country, especially for the young who have not lived as long as us, would you be willing to support that measure?"

Reading his piece led me to thinking and writing something like that!

Vinny
Why line them up and infect them? Just advise them all to stay home and self-quarantine if they don't want to get sick. Us young 'uns shouldn't be forced to. I agree with you in spirit.
All of humanity’s problems with coronavirus stem from a man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.
- Blasé Kriegsspiel
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