New paper from GB basically confirming what Denninger said

[Libertarian666]

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

[Tortoise]

I quickly skimmed the paper but didn't get a good sense of the practical differences between mitigation and suppression. It sounds like they both involve social distancing and quarantining infected people and their families.

Do you happen to have a TL;DR for the difference between mitigation and suppression?

[I Shrugged]

Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily
stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of
severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing
case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major
challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases,
home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the
elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and
deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of
thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many
times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.
We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social
distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family
members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, ....

[I Shrugged]

So what I read is that mitigation is the basic common sense stuff, and suppression adds the mass closings and prohibitions of gatherings.

And that said strategy will have to be done until a vaccine is available. Widely quoted to be at least 18 months.

[I Shrugged]

So my question is, given all of the mitigation and suppression in place and going forward, shouldn't we soon have a decent handle on counting the cases and quarantining them? Like in a week or two from now?

[Tortoise]

Even in that passage you quoted, “minimal suppression” sounds exactly the same as mitigation.

[Libertarian666]

So my question is, given all of the mitigation and suppression in place and going forward, shouldn't we soon have a decent handle on counting the cases and quarantining them? Like in a week or two from now?

From everything I can tell, in a week the health care system in the US will be overwhelmed.
Don't get sick or injured.

[I Shrugged]

Different view:

https://www.hoover.org/research/coronav ... t-pandemic

[I Shrugged]

So my question is, given all of the mitigation and suppression in place and going forward, shouldn't we soon have a decent handle on counting the cases and quarantining them? Like in a week or two from now?

From everything I can tell, in a week the health care system in the US will be overwhelmed.
Don't get sick or injured.

I’d take the opposite bet. Namely that a week from now, the system will be coping well with it.

[Libertarian666]

So my question is, given all of the mitigation and suppression in place and going forward, shouldn't we soon have a decent handle on counting the cases and quarantining them? Like in a week or two from now?

From everything I can tell, in a week the health care system in the US will be overwhelmed.
Don't get sick or injured.

I’d take the opposite bet. Namely that a week from now, the system will be coping well with it.

I certainly hope you are right. I just don't see how that's possible.

[vnatale]

So my question is, given all of the mitigation and suppression in place and going forward, shouldn't we soon have a decent handle on counting the cases and quarantining them? Like in a week or two from now?

From everything I can tell, in a week the health care system in the US will be overwhelmed.
Don't get sick or injured.

You were the first person who came to mind when a few hours ago I was working outside barefoot in my garden and I stepped on something that hurt the bottom of my foot.

As soon as I felt the pain, I said to myself, "Now what did Libertarian666 tell you??!!"

Luckily it was nothing serious and pain went away fairly quickly.

Vinny

[WiseOne]

Even in that passage you quoted, “minimal suppression” sounds exactly the same as mitigation.

Second.

Both of these articles are your basic fear-mongering. For starters, it won't be "hundreds of thousands" of deaths. Figuring based on the number of deaths in China vs. their population, this is going to be something on the order of 2x the deaths from a normal flu year. Yes, that will be a big stress test for hospitals. But, hospitals are preparing for what they know is coming, and I can't see things getting that out of control.

It is true that if you have a non-serious medical issue in the next several months, you're going to have to wait. And "non-serious" means from the medical standpoint, not necessarily yours. It'll actually be interesting to see how many procedures and tests ordered for defensive, money-making, or please-the-customer reasons will go right out the window, with likely no negative effects. Maybe even positive effects, because procedures and tests always carry risk.

[Libertarian666]

So my question is, given all of the mitigation and suppression in place and going forward, shouldn't we soon have a decent handle on counting the cases and quarantining them? Like in a week or two from now?

From everything I can tell, in a week the health care system in the US will be overwhelmed.
Don't get sick or injured.

You were the first person who came to mind when a few hours ago I was working outside barefoot in my garden and I stepped on something that hurt the bottom of my foot.

As soon as I felt the pain, I said to myself, "Now what did Libertarian666 tell you??!!"

Luckily it was nothing serious and pain went away fairly quickly.

Vinny

DON'T GO OUTSIDE BAREFOOT!!!

[Libertarian666]

Even in that passage you quoted, “minimal suppression” sounds exactly the same as mitigation.

Second.

Both of these articles are your basic fear-mongering. For starters, it won't be "hundreds of thousands" of deaths. Figuring based on the number of deaths in China vs. their population, this is going to be something on the order of 2x the deaths from a normal flu year. Yes, that will be a big stress test for hospitals. But, hospitals are preparing for what they know is coming, and I can't see things getting that out of control.

It is true that if you have a non-serious medical issue in the next several months, you're going to have to wait. And "non-serious" means from the medical standpoint, not necessarily yours. It'll actually be interesting to see how many procedures and tests ordered for defensive, money-making, or please-the-customer reasons will go right out the window, with likely no negative effects. Maybe even positive effects, because procedures and tests always carry risk.

Of course I would be very happy to be wrong: as happy as if I had won the lottery.
And I believe it has about the same likelihood, unfortunately.
Which considering I don't buy lottery tickets, is not very high.

[Tortoise]

DON'T GO OUTSIDE BAREFOOT!!!

Paging Mark Leavy...

[Smith1776]

Going barefoot is a really good way to get a hookworm infection.

[Tyler]

Different view:

https://www.hoover.org/research/coronav ... t-pandemic

Thank you for posting that. It's good to see a sober and non-hyperbolic analysis to contrast with the clickbait.

One of the dangers of people spreading a bunch of scary contagion models is that most people don't understand that a model is only as good as the assumptions and inputs. Just because something looks scientific does not mean that it accurately models the real world, and I can guarantee that many of the stuff getting press is full of crap inputs and assumptions. Not because these people are dumb. But simply because even the experts are still learning new things every day and modeling things with so many variables is really freaking hard.

[Libertarian666]

Even in that passage you quoted, “minimal suppression” sounds exactly the same as mitigation.

Second.

Both of these articles are your basic fear-mongering. For starters, it won't be "hundreds of thousands" of deaths. Figuring based on the number of deaths in China vs. their population, this is going to be something on the order of 2x the deaths from a normal flu year. Yes, that will be a big stress test for hospitals. But, hospitals are preparing for what they know is coming, and I can't see things getting that out of control.

It is true that if you have a non-serious medical issue in the next several months, you're going to have to wait. And "non-serious" means from the medical standpoint, not necessarily yours. It'll actually be interesting to see how many procedures and tests ordered for defensive, money-making, or please-the-customer reasons will go right out the window, with likely no negative effects. Maybe even positive effects, because procedures and tests always carry risk.

Of course I would be very happy to be wrong: as happy as if I had won the lottery.
And I believe it has about the same likelihood, unfortunately.
Which considering I don't buy lottery tickets, is not very high.

Says the guy who was certain Y2K was going to be TEOTWAWKI.

I wasn't certain. I just couldn't tell how bad it was likely to be, so I prepared the best I could for an unknown outcome.

Interestingly enough, those preparations, notably being in a house that can be independent of utilities, finally seem to be worthwhile.

[Libertarian666]

Different view:

https://www.hoover.org/research/coronav ... t-pandemic

Thank you for posting that. It's good to see a sober and non-hyperbolic analysis to contrast with the clickbait.

One of the dangers of people spreading a bunch of scary contagion models is that most people don't understand that a model is only as good as the assumptions and inputs. Just because something looks scientific does not mean that it accurately models the real world, and I can guarantee that many of the stuff getting press is full of crap inputs and assumptions. Not because these people are dumb. But simply because even the experts are still learning new things every day and modeling things with so many variables is really freaking hard.

When someone looks at data that shows a fairly smooth exponential growth and predicts that the incidence will grow exponentially, that's not really a big stretch.

Of course I hope you and Epstein are right.

I just don't see it in the data.

[vnatale]

So my question is, given all of the mitigation and suppression in place and going forward, shouldn't we soon have a decent handle on counting the cases and quarantining them? Like in a week or two from now?

From everything I can tell, in a week the health care system in the US will be overwhelmed.
Don't get sick or injured.

You were the first person who came to mind when a few hours ago I was working outside barefoot in my garden and I stepped on something that hurt the bottom of my foot.

As soon as I felt the pain, I said to myself, "Now what did Libertarian666 tell you??!!"

Luckily it was nothing serious and pain went away fairly quickly.

Vinny

DON'T GO OUTSIDE BAREFOOT!!!

I MAY wear my sandals just for you! Of course, really for my ultimate benefit.

Vinny

[Mark Leavy]

DON'T GO OUTSIDE BAREFOOT!!!

Paging Mark Leavy...

Yea. I'm definitely staying away from shoes now. The only time I ever trip or stumble is if I have some damn thing on my foot. I was in an all day board meeting today (video conference). On the patio outside my hotel room - barefoot and with a nice suit. I love video conferencing. I did wear pants though.

Safety first.

[vnatale]

DON'T GO OUTSIDE BAREFOOT!!!

Paging Mark Leavy...

Yea. I'm definitely staying away from shoes now. The only time I ever trip or stumble is if I have some damn thing on my foot. I was in an all day board meeting today (video conference). On the patio outside my hotel room - barefoot and with a nice suit. I love video conferencing. I did wear pants though.

Safety first.

About the longest time that I'm wearing shoes is for softball or basketball. When home, whether inside or outside, it's usually nothing on my feet. And, when in the office, shoes or sandals are the first thing to come off when I get there.

Vinny

[l82start]

DON'T GO OUTSIDE BAREFOOT!!!

Paging Mark Leavy...

Yea. I'm definitely staying away from shoes now. The only time I ever trip or stumble is if I have some damn thing on my foot. I was in an all day board meeting today (video conference). On the patio outside my hotel room - barefoot and with a nice suit. I love video conferencing. I did wear pants though.

Safety first.

About the longest time that I'm wearing shoes is for softball or basketball. When home, whether inside or outside, it's usually nothing on my feet. And, when in the office, shoes or sandals are the first thing to come off when I get there.

Vinny

That is me, as well. My GF is always asking if I'm cold. No, but if I have shoes on, I'm hot. And uncomfortable.

now that's just weird... i am the same, never wear socks unless in winter boots, and bare foot every minute i am not required to wear shoes...
i wonder if there is something about the permanent portfolio that attracts bare foot investors??

[Tyler]

When someone looks at data that shows a fairly smooth exponential growth and predicts that the incidence will grow exponentially, that's not really a big stretch.

Of course I hope you and Epstein are right.

I just don't see it in the data.

Exponential growth that doesn't account for active countermeasures is just a math exercise and not a realistic model.

The endgame is the emerging news that testing is ramping up and several existing drugs appear highly effective in treating the virus. So sooner or later anyone sick will get tested and receive immediate treatment that (fingers crossed) appears to eliminate the virus in a matter of days. That will drastically improve things and allow life to start to resume while buying time for the vaccine to be developed to manage it long-term.

Of course I could be wrong and we could be looking at a very different scenario. But my point is that possibilities like this aren't in the model.

[vnatale]

DON'T GO OUTSIDE BAREFOOT!!!

Paging Mark Leavy...

Yea. I'm definitely staying away from shoes now. The only time I ever trip or stumble is if I have some damn thing on my foot. I was in an all day board meeting today (video conference). On the patio outside my hotel room - barefoot and with a nice suit. I love video conferencing. I did wear pants though.

Safety first.

About the longest time that I'm wearing shoes is for softball or basketball. When home, whether inside or outside, it's usually nothing on my feet. And, when in the office, shoes or sandals are the first thing to come off when I get there.

Vinny

That is me, as well. My GF is always asking if I'm cold. No, but if I have shoes on, I'm hot. And uncomfortable.

now that's just weird... i am the same, never wear socks unless in winter boots, and bare foot every minute i am not required to wear shoes...
i wonder if there is something about the permanent portfolio that attracts bare foot investors??

!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Vinny