Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

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dualstow
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Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:21 am

Sorry for the clck-baity title. This isn’t a question about the pp.

It’s been a few years since I listened to any of the Money Show radio archives, but I think there was a caller who complained about manufacturing leaving the U.S. Harry responded that outsourcing was ok with something like, “China is our factory now. We focus on other things (like software and information technology).” For example, Apple is designed here and made there.

There is no shortage of What Would Harry Do questions on this board. What would Harry think about these low interest rates. What would Harry do about gold behaving this way, etc. I’m not so interested in speculating on whether Harry would change his mind, but I’m curious about what you think:

China is making too many of our medicines. That’s an easy one. We need to change that.

What about the rest? Less urgent items such as cars, appliances, clothing and phones?
China is also building many of our new bridges.

Should we try to bring some of that back for the sake of employment? Is it just too impractical, and robots are going to do it all anyway?

Or, is my memory of the show wrong in the first place?
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Re: Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by Xan » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:28 am

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:21 am
Should we try to bring some of that back for the sake of employment? Is it just too impractical, and robots are going to do it all anyway?
Not just employment, but also security and contingency. That is, China might attack us by building bridges that all fall apart around the same time. Or, some virus might come along that make us want to shut our borders completely. Okay that last one is too crazy.
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Re: Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:34 am

Ahem. O0 Well, the bridge thing is not too far-fetched. In By Way of Deception, the ex-Mossad author alleged that Israel put explosives in some bridges that they helped build for a Middle East rival. I can’t remember which one. They can be remotely detonated.
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Re: Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by Maddy » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:36 am

When did Harry make this comment? Was it before or after the western technocratic elite took over that country?

Was Harry a libertarian of the Posner type, the latter of which might well conclude that five-year-olds fabricating $175 Nikes for $0.50 an day is an example of the free market functioning as it should? I never read much of his work beyond the investing stuff, so I really don't know.
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Re: Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:38 am

I don’t know, early 2000s I guess. I’m specifically thinking of his Money Talk radio show, although a similar sentiment might appear in one of his books.
Was Harry a libertarian of the Posner type, the latter of which might well conclude that five-year-olds fabricating $175 Nikes for $0.50 an day is an example of the free market functioning as it should?
Or a spike in food prices after we’ve already seen a 25% increase in many staples over the past 10 years? j/k
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Re: Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:48 am

I've come to think complete laissez faire libertarianism is kind of like communism. It would work if everyone in the world played along.
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Re: Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by Tortoise » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:38 am

In WWII, a lot of America's biggest companies converted their factories to crank out war supplies (tanks, airplanes, ammunition, etc.). I often wonder if we'd even be capable of doing something like that again if we ever have WWIII, given that most of our manufacturing has gone overseas.

At a minimum, I'd say that if we're going to import most of a certain product from foreign countries, we'd better at least make sure we don't depend mostly on one country for any single product. That's what they call a "single point of failure" in engineering, and it's just asking for trouble if the system needs to be reliable and robust.

Libertarian thinkers like Harry Browne rarely discuss this idea of systemic reliability and robustness (though HB did discuss portfolio reliability, obviously!). They focus more on principles that maximize efficiency and profit, which can result in systems that are quite fragile and sensitive to disturbances.
Last edited by Tortoise on Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by stuper1 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:39 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:48 am
I've come to think complete laissez faire libertarianism is kind of like communism. It would work if everyone in the world played along.
Both may be good in theory, but are lousy in practice, given human nature.
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Re: Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:50 am

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:38 am
In WWII, a lot of America's biggest companies converted their factories to crank out war supplies (tanks, airplanes, ammunition, etc.). I often wonder if we'd even be capable of doing something like that again if we ever have WWIII, given that most of our manufacturing has gone overseas.

At a minimum, I'd say that if we're going to import most of a certain product from foreign countries, we'd better at least make sure we don't depend mostly on one country for any single product. That's what they call a "single point of failure" in engineering, and it's just asking for trouble if the system needs to be reliable and robust.

Libertarian thinkers like Harry Browne rarely discuss this idea of systemic reliability and robustness (though HB did discuss portfolio reliability, obviously!). They focus more on principles that maximize efficiency and profit, which can result in systems that are quite fragile and sensitive to disturbances.

Sounds like we need some kind of flexible fabrication. 3D Printers and those machines that can cut metal to precise specifications.
How do we keep that stuff alive when there isn't a war or emergency? Not to mention the people who run it. We have to incorporate it into our economy. But how can it compete with China? ???
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Re: Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by Tortoise » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:00 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:50 am
Sounds like we need some kind of flexible fabrication. 3D Printers and those machines that can cut metal to precise specifications.
How do we keep that stuff alive when there isn't a war or emergency? Not to mention the people who run it. We have to incorporate it into our economy. But how can it compete with China? ???
As someone who loves libertarianism in theory, I hate to say it -- but probably some form of protectionism.

My understanding is that a lot of our manufacturing gradually got sent overseas because our corporate leaders felt they couldn't compete globally unless they reduced costs (increased profits) by doing that. Race to the bottom and all that.

Seems like one of the only ways to counter that market force is for the government to create incentives to keep a certain amount of manufacturing at home. Whether those incentives should take the form of tariffs, subsidies, tax breaks, etc., I'm not sure.

I can't believe I'm actually saying this. I must be getting older.
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Re: Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:35 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:00 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:50 am
Sounds like we need some kind of flexible fabrication. 3D Printers and those machines that can cut metal to precise specifications.
How do we keep that stuff alive when there isn't a war or emergency? Not to mention the people who run it. We have to incorporate it into our economy. But how can it compete with China? ???
As someone who loves libertarianism in theory, I hate to say it -- but probably some form of protectionism.

My understanding is that a lot of our manufacturing gradually got sent overseas because our corporate leaders felt they couldn't compete globally unless they reduced costs (increased profits) by doing that. Race to the bottom and all that.

Seems like one of the only ways to counter that market force is for the government to create incentives to keep a certain amount of manufacturing at home. Whether those incentives should take the form of tariffs, subsidies, tax breaks, etc., I'm not sure.

I can't believe I'm actually saying this. I must be getting older.
And, you have not yet hit 40? Or, if you have, barely?

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Re: Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:36 pm

Every moment wounds. The last one kills.
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Re: Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:38 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:36 pm
Every moment wounds. The last one kills.
Do you own a sundial? O0
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Re: Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by Tortoise » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:39 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:35 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:00 pm
I can't believe I'm actually saying this. I must be getting older.
And, you have not yet hit 40? Or, if you have, barely?

Vinny
I'm 40. Not old relative to most of this forum's active members, perhaps, but old enough for me to have to lift weights more carefully than I used to. ;D
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Re: Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by Mountaineer » Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:32 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:39 pm
vnatale wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:35 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:00 pm
I can't believe I'm actually saying this. I must be getting older.
And, you have not yet hit 40? Or, if you have, barely?

Vinny
I'm 40. Not old relative to most of this forum's active members, perhaps, but old enough for me to have to lift weights more carefully than I used to. ;D
I have found myself enjoying 12oz curls at this stage of life much more than I did the Nautilus workouts at age 40. Embrace your future! 8)
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Re: Did Harry Browne have it wrong?

Post by Tortoise » Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:37 pm

Mountaineer wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:32 pm
I have found myself enjoying 12oz curls at this stage of life much more than I did the Nautilus workouts at age 40. Embrace your future! 8)
Took me a minute to get the joke, but I finally got it. Cheers! 8)
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